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Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey: betting odds and predictions for UFC 301

Publish Date: 05/04/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • Mauricio Ruffy is making his UFC debut
  • Jamie Mullarkey is 5-5 in his UFC career
  • Jamie Mullarkey has 10 wins by KO/TKO
  • Mauricio Ruffy has 9 wins by KO/TKO
  • Mauricio Ruffy is on a 4-fight winning streak.

The UFC heads back to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for a stacked UFC 301 event. Headlining the fight card are two of the best men's flyweight fighters as the reigning and defending champion Alexandre Pantoja looks to defend his title once more when he takes on the surging Australian Steve Erceg. In this article, we take a look at a matchup in the lightweight division between promotional newcomer Mauricio Ruffy and a mainstay in the lightweight division Jamie Mullarkey. We take a look at this fight and give out our prediction and pick for this Ruffy-Mullarkey matchup.

Mauricio Ruffy (9-1) secured his contract on the Contender Series after a third-round knockout of Raimond Magomedaliev. Ruffy came back in a fight that he was down two rounds after Magomedaliev gassed himself out in those first 10 minutes. In that third round, Ruffy was the fresher fighter and that is when he upped the volume and put the pressure on Magomedaliev eventually finishing him with a barrage of strikes toward the end of the round.

Ruffy is at his best when he stays composed and counterstrikes from the outside as his opponent attempts to push the pace and be the aggressor. That is when Ruffy is able to land his devastating power shots that have knocked out 9 of his professional wins. He has in the past been tentative to the point where he gets down on the scorecards because of it but he has shown in his most recent fight that you can't count him out even when he is down.

In this matchup against Mullarkey, he's going to need to up the volume earlier than normal because Mullarkey has good cardio to push a relentless pace over the course of 15 minutes. Also, Mullarkey is known to have durability issues with 5 of his 7 losses coming by knockout. As long as Ruffy doesn't let Mullarkey run away with the fight just by doing more and he can land his strikes he can potentially put him away and secure his first victory inside the Octagon.

Jamie Mullarkey (17-7) is coming off a knockout defeat to Nasrat Haqparast in his last fight which lasted just under two minutes. He is now just 5-5 in the UFC and will be looking to get himself back into the win column this weekend at UFC 301. Mullarkey has the tools to be a legitimate contender in the UFC's lightweight division but it's been his durability that's been holding him back as he's knocked out in three of his five defeats inside the Octagon.

When he isn't getting knocked out he is mixing in his strikes with takedowns quite well. While he may not be great anywhere, he is still very well-rounded. He has the grappling to takedown strikers like Francisco Prado but he also has the knockout power in his hands as shown in his knockouts of Devonte Smith and Khama Worthy.

In this particular matchup, Mullarkey is going to need to avoid the bombs that Mauricio Ruffy will throw his way and drag him into deep waters. He is a fighter who has seen the third round just once in his 10-fight professional career and has never seen a third round at 155 lbs. As long as Mullarkey doesn't get sparked early he can take over late to either get a finish or the nod on the judge's scorecards.

UFC 301: MAURICIO RUFFY VS. JAMIE MULLARKEY FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 4

MONEY LINE

  • MAURICIO RUFFY: -225
  • JAMIE MULLARKEY: +188

PROPS

  • MAURICIO RUFFY BY POINTS: +500
  • MAURICIO RUFFYA BY SUBMISSION: +1500
  • MAURICIO RUFFY BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: -110
  • JAMIE MULLARKEY BY POINTS: +370
  • JAMIE MULLARKEY BY KNOCKOUT/TKO: +600
  • JAMIE MULLARKEY BY SUBMISSION: +2000

OVER/UNDER (ROUNDS TOTAL)

  • OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-152)
  • UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (+120)

BEST UFC 301 ODDS FOR MAURICIO RUFFY VS. JAMIE MULLARKEY

  • Mauricio Ruffy is the favorite against Jamie Mullarkey. FanDuel currently has the best odds at (-225)
  • Jamie Mullarkey is the underdog. FanDuel currently has the best odds at (+188)
  • FanDuel currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at 1.5 Rounds (-152) for the over, and (+120) for the under
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FINAL RUFFY-MULLARKEY PICK & PREDICTION

This fight should be a barnburner for however long it lasts. Both fighters can get a finish in this one. While Ruffy should have the power advantage on his side and with this line baked into the account that Mullarkey has durability issues usually would make you side with the favorite here.

However, after looking this fight over Ruffy is going to need an early knockout to avoid being outworked by the more experienced Jamie Mullarkey. If Mullarkey can avoid getting sparked in round one he can take Ruffy into deep waters who hasn't had to cut to 155 lbs since 2022 and hasn't even seen a round two at lightweight since 2019. Mullarkey avoids the early knockout and drowns Ruffy in the latter portion of this fight to get back into the win column.

FINAL RUFFY-MULLARKEY PICK & PREDICTION: JAMIE MULLARKEY (+188)

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