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Mavericks vs Timberwolves SGP: Same Game Parlay for Game 1

Publish Date: 05/22/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The Western Conference Finals between the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves gets underway on Wednesday, and with Minnesota entering as a deserving favorite on the Moneyline you may be looking towards a Same-Game Parlay to get in on the action for Game 1.

(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

There are plenty of profitable spots to bet on some player props in this one as both the Mavericks and Timberwolves vie for a spot in the NBA Finals. Let's lay out the best SGP for Mavericks vs Timberwolves Game 1 below and break down why each leg makes sense to add.

Same-Game Parlay for Mavericks vs Timberwolves Game 1

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A Slog of a Game

While the pace of playoff games is normally significantly slower than those we see in the regular season given the higher stakes, both of these teams have been slower than the league norm so far this postseason with Pace ratings of 93.0 and 93.4, respectively.

While the Mavericks have been the team to pick up the tempo a bit in their last three games, it was largely due to the offensive nature of the contest, and with Minnesota slowing things down against Denver to a Pace at 91 or slower in two of the last three and likely controlling this one with their defense, I think the Under 206.5 (-112) is the best overall bet in this one.

Minnesota entered the playoffs as the top rim defense in the NBA and backed that up in a huge way last round with an inspired performance against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. While we'll dig a bit further into that matchup with our next leg of the parlay, what you need to know here is that Dallas has gotten a surprising number of points inside and that should not be the case in this series.

On the flip side, Minnesota's offense waffled against a strong Denver defense in the later games last round and its shooting has really deserted it.

While this could change against a slightly more generous defense, it leans just as heavily on production inside which has been hard to come by against the Mavericks.

Betting on the Timberwolves' Interior Defense

While the Mavericks pulled out a couple of special shooting nights to take their Western Conference Semfinals series versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, they met their maker inside as OKC allowed just 60% shooting within four feet, displaying the same kind of defense that earned them one of the top seeds in the West.

Minnesota, meanwhile, allowed just 61.2% shooting inside against the formidable Jokic and looks ready to suffocate a Mavericks offense that has been powered by interior scoring in the playoffs.

I think Derrick Jones Jr., who shined late in the conference semis, should be the biggest victim here. While he was able to heat up from outside, he does take a lot of shots around the rim and won't find any sort of success against Gobert.

It's possible he gets some minutes stolen away by Daniel Gafford here as well given the Mavericks will have to go big to combat Minnesota inside, and I thinkΒ Derrick Jones Jr. Under 8.5 Points (+100) is the ultimate contrarian spot after a strong showing over the last three games.

A rebound night for Anthony Edwards

It's crazy to say the Mavericks have matched the Timberwolves when it comes to interior defense with the way they've been an offense-oriented team for years, particularly around the perimeter, but Derrick Lively II has imposed fear in the hearts of his opponents down in the paint.

I think Minnesota's best route into this game is taking some 3s, which has led plenty of teams to great heights in this matchup. I'm looking to Edwards to have a bounce-back night in this one after his disappointing scoring performance in Game 7 of the semis and am incredibly encouraged by the fact that he's taken 19 shots from outside over his last two games.

Dallas did allow a poor 37.5% of shots to fall from outside this year, and I'm going to bet on the Thunder having an off-series when it came to shooting the ball.

We saw the Clippers devastate several times from outside in the first round, and a 3-point barrage could be in the cards for the Timberwolves. That'll lead me toΒ Anthony Edwards 3+ Threes (-130).

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