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NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics: Game 1 betting predictions and odds for June 6

Publish Date: 06/06/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The Celtics were 3-0 ATS vs. the Mavericks this season
  • Boston is 7-3 Over/Under over the last 10 games
  • Dallas is 6-4 Over/Under in the last 10 games
  • NBA Finals: Celtics vs. Mavericks

The NBA Finals are here, and we have a highly anticipated showdown between the No. 5 Dallas Mavericks (50-32, 25-16 away) and the No. 1 Boston Celtics (64-18, 37-4). While the Celtics were the favorites to win the NBA title at +350 odds to open the season, the Mavericks were +850 to capture a title.

(Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)

There's a twist to this all. Dallas and Boston have key players who have played for both organizations at some point: Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porzingis. Although neither player saw a fit with their former teams, Irving found a home in Dallas, and Porzingis fits like a glove in Boston.

Speaking of Porzingis, the Latvian Native confirmed he will suit up for game one tonight. Out since April 29 with a calf strain, Porzingis entirely missed both series against the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Indiana Pacers. Adding much needed depth for the frontcourt, Porzingis will provide much needed rim protection and spacing throughout the series.

The best of seven games, Boston will have home court advantage for the first two games. Taking advantage of injuries, they coasted by the Miami Heat, 4-1, Cavaliers, 4-1, and Pacers, 4-0. Having swept the Pacers, the Celtics will face their biggest challenge yet. Their second finals appearance in two years, the Celtics look to raise banner 18 for the first time since 2008.

FANDUEL HAS A 30 PERCENT ODDS BOOST FOR THE NBA FINALS

For the Mavericks, they had a tougher road to the Finals. They defeated the Los Angeles Clippers 4-2. However, they vanquished the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2, and No. 2 seed Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1. Led by Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, Dallas is seeking their first NBA Championship since 2011. The Mavericks have +188 odds to win it all, and the Celtics are favored by -225 odds to the NBA Championship.

Tip off is set to take place at 8:30 p.m. ET at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. I've broken down the betting odds, statistics, and analysis to make informed betting decisions for Thursday, June 6. If you're looking to watch the matchup, it will air on ABC.  All of my bets will be placed on the FanDuel Sportsbook app.

Who will raise the Larry O'Brien Trophy in the end? Let's discuss and break it down if you're looking to bet on the NBA Finals.

Looking to bet on FanDuel? Click here to read about the sportsbook and app. 

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS FAN DUEL ODDS FOR JUNE 6

MONEY LINE

  • DALLAS MAVERICKS: +200
  • BOSTON CELTICS: -245

SPREAD

  • DALLAS MAVERICKS:: +6.5 (-112)
  • BOSTON CELTICS: -6.5 (-108)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 215.5 (-112)
    UNDER: 215.5  (-108)

BEST ODDS FOR DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS

  • DraftKings currently has the best Celtics money line odds at -230.

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  • The Boston Celtics are 6.5 point favorites against the Dallas Mavericks. FanDuel currently has the best odds currently at -108.
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  • The Dallas Mavericks are the underdogs by 6.5 points to cover the spread tonight. BetMGM currently has the best odds at -110 for Dallas to cover the spread

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  • Caesars currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -110 for the over (214.5), and FanDuel for the under at -108 (215.5).

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DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT

DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT

  • F, Olivier-Maxence Prosper: Questionable: Ankle
  • G, Luka Doncic: Questionable: Knee sprain and Ankle soreness
  • F Greg Brown III, Out: Personal

BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT INJURY REPORT

  • None

DALLAS MAVERICKS POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

  • *ATS = Against the Spread
  • *O/U = Over/Under
  • Best out of 16 current playoff teams
Statistic Value
Last 5 Games 4-1
Last 10 Games 8-2
Season ATS Record 59-40-0
Season O/U Record 45-54-0
Last 5 Games ATS 4-1
Last 10 Games ATS 7-3
Last 5 Games O/U 4-1
Last 10 Games O/U 6-4
Offensive Rating (Rank) 115.2 (6)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 111.1 (7)
Points Per Game (Rank) 107.5 (6)
Pace (Rank) 93.62 (8)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 103.9 (6)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 37.2% (5)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 43.1 (4)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins OKC Thunder (+5, -1.5, +4.5), Minnesota Timberwolves (+5, +6, -1.5, +5)

BOSTON CELTICS POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

  • *ATS = Against the Spread
  • *O/U = Over/Under
  • Best out of 16 current playoff teams
Statistic Value
Last 5 Games 5-0
Last 10 Games 9-1
Season ATS Record 48-43-5
Season O/U Record 50-44-2
Last 5 Games ATS 1-4
Last 10 Games ATS 4-6
Last 5 Games O/U 4-1
Last 10 Games O/U 7-3
Offensive Rating (Rank) 119.6 (2)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 108.7 (3)
Points Per Game (Rank) 111.4 (2)
Pace (Rank) 92.45 (12)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 101.3 (3)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 36.8% (6)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 43.7 (3)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins Miami (-13.5), Cleveland (-12.5, -7.5), Indiana (-9)

HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: MAVERICKS VS. CELTICS

Season Matchups:

  • Game 1: Jan 5: Boston 124, Dallas 95 (Boston -3, Under 231.5)
  • Game 2: Jan 22: Boston 119, Dallas 110 (Boston -2.5, Under 240.5)
  • Game 3: Mar 1: Boston 138, Dallas 110 (Boston -8,5, Over 237)
  • O/U last 10 matchups: 3-6-1
  • Celtics have a 6-4 record in the last 10 meeting vs the Mavericks

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TOTAL: OVER 214.5 POINTS

  • +104 FanDuel Boost

I was able to grab this line early this morning, since it shifted to 215.5. Even better, I received a 30 percent boost over at FanDuel sportsbook. The Boston Celtics may have one of the most stifling defenses in the league, however, I expect there to be plenty of offense in this series. While the Celtics money line still has value at -245, it's simply too juiced for my personal preference.

Additionally, I chose to steer away from the spread, since I feel it's appropriately set. Although Boston is 3-0 ATS against Dallas this year, the lines were initially set much lower at -3 and -2.5 spreads.

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If you break it down, the Mavericks and Celtics have five players who ranked within the top 30 in scoring in the postseason:

  • Luka Doncic
  • Jayson Tatum
  • Jaylen Brown
  • Kryie Irving
  • Derrick White

Throughout the regular 82 game season, Doncic and Tatum were featured in the top 10 highest scorers in the league. In addition, Irving and Brown were ranked 14th and 19th overall in scoring. I don't care what anyone says, this may be the most talent we've seen in a Finals in a while.

THE TOTAL BETTING LINE IS SIMPLY TOO LOW AT 214.5

Overall, the Celtics and Mavericks rank no. 2 and no. 6 in offensive rating throughout the playoffs. With Boston averaging 111.4 points per game, and Mavericks 107.9 points per game, I do feel this line is set too low.

With more than six days off given to both teams, they should absolutely have plenty of rest for tonight's matchup.

For the total, the Celtics have a record of 7-3 over the last 10 matchups, and the Mavericks, 6-4. Although Dallas hasn't seen a line this high since game one against the Oklahoma City Thunder, they easily cleared four of the last five overs.

  • In fact, although the lines were set lower, the Mavericks hit over 214.5 points in three of their five matchups against Minnesota.

Throughout the playoffs, the Celtics have seen much larger spread totals, hovering around 220-224 against the Pacers. The lowest total set since game five of the Eastern Conference Finals, they've hit over 214.5 points in three of their last five games. Overall, they had a 50-44-2 record against over/unders in the regular season.

THE CELTICS WILL FACE A HEALTHY MAVERICKS TEAM

Let's face it, both teams are fairly healthy, meaning most are expected to suit up for the series. Of course, several players are banged up. However, it's the first time the Celtics will face a healthy squad all postseason.

One of the best backcourt duos in NBA history, Doncic and Irving combined for a 51.6 points per game through 17 post season games.

While they are largely expected to perform a majority of the heavy lifting, Dallas hit the jackpot at the trade deadline. The addition of P.J. Washington, and Daniel Gafford helped shape this team into a title contender. Derrick Lively II, who was known for his defensive prowess at Duke, has been an enormously contributor in the offensive front court.

  • A perfect 16-16 from the field over the last four matchups, expect Lively to have a large role in the series.

BOSTON VS. MAVERICKS REGULAR SEASON MEETINGS AVERAGED 232 TOTAL POINTS

The Mavericks have undergone a makeover, in which the Celtics only faced one time. Once up by 28 points, Boston defeated Dallas 138-110 in their last outing. With seven players in double figures, the Celtics finished the night shooting 55 percent from the field, and 49 percent from beyond the arc.

Dominant on the rebound battle, 122 of the 248 points (nearly 50 percent) of the points came inside the paint. Although the under hit two of their three regular season matchups, the lines were extremely inflated, at 231-240.

All three of their head-t0-head matchups totaled over 214.5 points. In fact, the average total points for all three games was 232, which is more than 17 points higher than what the line is set at.

Both the Celtics and Mavericks are in the top six in points per game, and hover around 36.8- 37.2 three-point percentage throughout the playoffs. Boston and Dallas have been extremely efficient on the offensive end, shooting above 47.1 percent from the field. With the amount of talent and experience on the floor, expect there to be plenty of scoring.

Especially, since Dallas ranks fifth in free-throw attempts with 23.8 per game. Also, the Mavericks score 16 points off turnovers per game, and are 13.4 second chance points per game.

  • While both teams aren't extremely fast paced, I do expect the Celtics to continue their domination on the offensive end.

MY FINAL NBA FINALS GAME 1 PREDICTION: MAVERICKS VS. CELTICS

Now that Kristaps Porzingis is back and healthy, Boston is averaging 118.2 points over their last five games, and 127 points alone against Dallas this year. As far as betting on the Celtics, there's no reason to believe their offensive production will regress.

Second in offensive rating (119.6) behind the Pacers, they lead the postseason in PIE. Putting up 111.4 points through 14 post season games, Boston truly has a scary roster.

With limited holes on both ends of the court, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday can take over a game at any given point.

Although the Mavericks have improved defensively since post all-star break, it's going to be difficult to guard both the weak and strong side of the ball.  I'm going with the over, and placed all my bets on FanDuel sportsbook.

FINAL MAVERICKS VS. CELTICS PICK & PREDICTION: OVER 214.5 POINTS (+104)

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