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NBA Finals: Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics: Game 5 betting predictions and odds for June 17

Publish Date: 06/17/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe
Key Points
  • The Boston Celtics lead the series 3-1
  • The Celtics are 2-1-1 ATS in the NBA Finals
  • The Mavericks 38 victory margin in game 4 was the 3rd largest in NBA Finals history
  • Kristaps Porzingis remains questionable for Boston

In 2008, the Boston Celtics won their 17th NBA Championship. Exactly 16 years to the day, Boston has an opportunity to win it all tonight. Their odds to raise banner no. 18  are currently at -270 against Luke Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.

(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

The NBA Finals are still alive, thanks to the Mavericks. It's game five between the Mavericks and the Boston Celtics, and Dallas will once again face elimination.

  • Against all odds, the Mavericks will have their backs against the wall against a Celtics team that's been exceptional at home.
  • In fact, with an 8-2 record at the TD Garden, the Celtics are undefeated against the Mavericks on their home court.
  • While they haven't lost at the Garden since May 9, Dallas has +215 odds to win flat out tonight.

Game four was a bit of a shocker for most Celtics fans and some bettors. Let's face it: I envisioned game four as a trap game for the Celtics, but not a blowout. Facing a potential sweep, the Mavericks came out firing on all cylinders.

  • A complete domination for Jason Kidd's squad, Dallas defeated Boston 122-84, the third-largest victory in NBA Finals history.
  • With a 25-point differential over the first two victories against Dallas,  Boston looked completely uncharacteristic and couldn't buy a bucket if they tried.
  • Backed by a brilliant defensive scheme, the Mavericks held the Celtics to 36.3 percent from the floor and 34.1 percent from beyond the arc.
  • Crushed on the boards 52-31, Boston lost their battle in the paint by 26 points, and saw the largest deficit of the year with 48 points by the third quarter.

THE DALLAS MAVERICKS HAVE +1400 ODDS TO WIN THE 2024 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP

If you're betting on the NBA Finals, the Mavericks have +1400 odds to come back and win an NBA Championship. Although Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis was active and available for game four, he did not suit up.

If he's unable to lace up for the Celtics tonight, will the Mavericks have another enticing matchup? Not only did we see a Kryie Irving and Luka Doncic masterclass, Kidd emptied out his entire bench. It's not everyday 10 players get to see NBA Finals minutes.

  • With 54 points and 35 rebounds off the bench, will Dallas look for their depth players to launch a much needed spark tonight?

With Jayson Tatum leading the way with 15 points for Boston, the starters finished  14-41 (34 %), and the Celtics offensive was completely abysmal. While the Celtics were proven winners without Porzingis in the second and third round, Dallas found a way to exploit his absence.

Initially down 3-0, not one team in NBA history has ever come back from that magnitude of series deficit.  Sure, the Celtics wish to close out the series.

However, Tatum stated "it's not the end of the world" if Dallas forces a game six. With the Mavericks barking at the door, can they knock the Celtics off? Let's break it down.

THE CELTICS LEAD MAVERICKS 3-1 IN THE NBA FINALS

Tip off is set to take place at 8:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden, located in Boston, Massachusetts. I've broken down the betting odds, statistics, and analysis to make informed betting decisions for Monday, June 17.

  • If you're looking to watch the matchup, it will air on ABC.  All of my bets will be placed on the FanDuel Sportsbook app.

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Who will raise the Larry O'Brien Trophy in the end? Let's discuss and break it down if you're looking to bet on the NBA Finals.

Looking to bet on FanDuel? Click here to read about the sportsbook and app. 

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS FAN DUEL ODDS FOR JUNE 17

MONEY LINE

  • DALLAS MAVERICKS: +220
  • BOSTON CELTICS: -270

SPREAD

  • DALLAS MAVERICKS: +6.5 (-108)
  • BOSTON CELTICS: -6.5 (-112)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER: 210.5 (-110)
  • UNDER: 210.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS

  • DraftKings currently has the best Celtics money line odds at -250
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  • The Boston Celtics are 6.5 point favorites against the Dallas Mavericks. BetMGM currently has the best odds currently at -110.
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  • The Dallas Mavericks  are the underdogs by 6.5 points to cover the spread tonight. Caesars currently has the best odds at -106 for Dallas to cover the spread
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  • DraftKings currently has the best odds for the total, which is set at -108 for the over (210), and BetMGM for the under at -110 (210.5)
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 DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS INJURY REPORT

DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT

  • G, Luka Doncic: Questionable: Thoracic Contusion
  • F Greg Brown III, Out: Personal

BOSTON CELTICS  INJURY REPORT

  • C, Kristaps Porzingis: Questionable: Lower leg

DALLAS MAVERICKS  POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

*ATS = Against the Spread

*O/U = Over/Under

Best out of 16 current playoff teams

Statistic Value
Last 5 Games 2-3
Last 10 Games 6-4
Season ATS Record 60-42-1
Season O/U Record 45-8-0
Last 5 Games ATS 2-2-1
Last 10 Games ATS 5-4-1
Last 5 Games O/U 1-4
Last 10 Games O/U 5-5
Offensive Rating (Rank) 113.9 (7)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 110. 3 (5)
Points Per Game (Rank) 106.8 (7)
Pace (Rank) 93.69 (7)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 103.2 (4)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 36.3 % (6)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 43.5 (3)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins OKC (+4.5), Minnesota (+5, +6, -1.5, +5), Boston (+1)

BOSTON CELTICS  POST-SEASON STATISTICS & BETTING TRENDS

*ATS = Against the Spread

*O/U = Over/Under

Best out of 16 current playoff teams

Statistic Value
Last 5 Games 4-1
Last 10 Games 9-1
Season ATS Record 50-44-6
Season O/U Record 50-48-2
Last 5 Games ATS 2-2-1
Last 10 Games ATS 3-6-1
Last 5 Games O/U 1-4
Last 10 Games O/U 5-5
Offensive Rating (Rank) 116.5 (5)
Defensive Rating (Rank) 108.7 (3)
Points Per Game (Rank) 108.9 (4)
Pace (Rank) 92.80 (12)
Opponent Points Per Game (Rank) 101.4 (3)
Three-Point Percentage (Rank) 36.1 % (7)
Rebounds Per Game (Rank) 42.6 (6)
Last 10 Games ATS Wins Indiana (-9), Dallas (-6.5, +2.5)

HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS: MAVERICKS VS. CELTICS

Season Matchups:

  • Game 1: Jan 5: Boston 124, Dallas 95 (Boston -3, Under 231.5)
  • Game 2: Jan 22: Boston 119, Dallas 110 (Boston -2.5, Under 240.5)
  • Game 3: Mar 1: Boston 138, Dallas 110 (Boston -8,5, Over 237)
  • Playoffs game 1: Boston 107, Dallas 89 (Boston -6.5, Under 216)
  • Playoffs game 2: Boston 105, Dallas 98 (Push -7, Under 214)
  • Playoffs game 3: Boston 106, Dallas 99 (Boston +2.5, Under 213.5)
  • Playoffs game 4: Dallas 122, Boston 84 ( Dallas +1, Under 211.5)
  • O/U last 10 matchups: 2-7-1
  • Celtics have a 7-3  record in the last 10 meeting vs the Mavericks

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1H SPREAD: BOSTON CELTICS -3.5

  • -110 FanDuel

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Heading into this matchup, the Celtics have been one of the most efficient teams in covering the first half spread this season. 65-34-1 against half spreads, Boston is poised to cover again at home.

Given the spread is significantly lower than previous round matchups, I do believe the value is fair for 3.5 points.

While several experts are leaning towards the Mavericks forcing a game six and seven, there's a few reasons why I love the Celtics to cover the first half spread by 3.5 points.

  • When it comes to first quarter play in the playoffs, the Celtics boast a second best 127.5 offensive rating in the playoffs.
  • Putting up 30.1 points in the first quarter, Boston remains effective in the postseason, putting up an impressive 57.4 points through the first two quarters.

Coming off a devastating game two four loss in Dallas, the Celtics will have the odds in their favor. On their home court, they average 59.8 first half points, and 30.8 first quarter points.

If you're betting on the Celtics to cover the 3.5 first half spread, there is good news. 11th in second quarter points on the road in the playoffs (25.1 points), Boston has been much more orderly in front of their home fans.

At the TD Garden, they average over 29 points per game in the second quarter.

THE CELTICS ARE A DOMINANT FIRST QUARTER TEAM

Sure, the Celtics are 9-9 in first half spreads over the last ten games this post season. However they are 2-1 in covering the spread at halftime in their last three home games. Yes, Boston putting up 35 points in the entire half of game four doesn't show their dynamic offense.

  • However, their 25 point differential through the first two games is a huge reason why they can cover the spread tonight. Up 3-1 games in the series, I have to trust the Celtics tonight, who are looking to close things outs.

Known for blowing out opponents in the first quarter, look for Boston to put the clamps on Dallas early on. I do believe game four was a truly an outlier game, especially with a 38 point margin. It's nothing against the Mavericks, Boston is the more dominant team. That's included first half spread coverage all season long.

SPREAD: BOSTON CELTICS -6.5

  • -112 FanDuel

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As discussed previously, the Celtics were brutally exploited by the Dallas Mavericks in game four. The 38 point loss was the largest in Celtics finals history, which has several outlets and bettors talking. Kristaps Porzingis remains questionable for Boston with a lower leg injury, which is certainly not in their favor.

However, Boston knows how to claim victory without Porzingis in the lineup, and have enough talent to fall back on.

  • With a 50-44-6 record against the spread on the season, the Celtics are 10-8 ATS in the playoffs, are 6-4 against the spread at home in the playoffs.
  • 10-9 ATS all time in game five matchups, Boston finds themselves as 6.5 point favorites after being tabbed the underdogs the previous two matchups.

Putting up a 2-1-1 record against the spread versus Dallas in the NBA Finals, I like the value here for the Celtics to cover with -112 odds on FanDuel. Due to that colossal victory by Dallas in game four, the Mavericks are actually outscoring Boston 408-402 in the series.

  • However, I have to go with the home court advantage and the league leading +7.5 point differential in the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

As expected, look for Dallas to attack the Celtics one weakness, which is the absence of Kristaps Porzingis. Yes, they will look to crash the boards, and attack inside. This is where Boston will need to capitalize on their biggest strength, hitting their three-pointers.

Sure, the Celtics are versatile in their offensive, however, they were a top three-point percentage team (38.8 %) for a reason. Hitting 14-41 of their three-pointers simply isn't going to cut it. The difference between the first three games and game four was their ability to attack in the paint, defend, and hit their shots from the charity stripe.

THE CELTICS HAVE -112 ODDS TO COVER THE 6.5 POINT SPREAD VS. THE MAVERICKS

Heavy favorites once again at home, the Celtics are an excellent bounce back team when it comes to responding. Per Bet labs, for the last 19 years, teams that lost by more than 30 points in the NBA Finals went 4-0 straight up, and 4-0 against the spread the next game. That is quite the stat. Remind you, 2005 was not yesterday.

  • 27-23-3 as favorites at home this season, I do believe punching first and spacing the floor will be critical for Boston. Luka Doncic will most likely continue his NBA Finals dominant performance.

Averaging 29.5 points per game, Doncic is putting dishing out 5.8 dimes per game, and grabbing eight boards. The key will be shutting down key role players, specifically Tim Hardaway Jr., who put up 15 points in game four.

Yes, Dallas has a ton of depth, and that's something they can beat the Celtics with. Also, Derick Lively's back-t0-back double-double performances is nothing to sniff at.

Overall, the Celtics have more experience in the NBA Finals, especially with Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown. With Derrick White and Holiday in the backcourt, I expect Boston to remain one of the top prolific teams on the defensive end.

Having held the Mavericks to 100 points and under over the first three games, Boston allowed opponents to put up 106.9 points per game, which was top four in the league. 15-3 in the playoffs, the Celtics will need huge games from the Jays to avoid a potential game six.

While the money is too juice for my personal preference at -270, look for the Celtics to cover the spread, and close the series out tonight.

FINAL NBA FINALS GAME 5: DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING PREDICTION: 

  • CELTICS 1H -3.5 (-110)
  • CELTICS -6.5 SPEAD (-112)
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