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Dallas Mavericks vs. LA Clippers: betting odds and predictions for May 1

Publish Date: 05/01/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

The LA Clippers have found their touch offensively at the right time, avoiding falling into a 3-1 hole in their opening-round playoff series against the Dallas Mavericks with a key win in Game 4.

Now, the series will return to Los Angles where the Clippers have the chance to move a game away from the second round if they can stay afloat offensively without Kawhi Leonard

It's not exactly a positive that Leonard will miss yet another game, but it's also not anything new for the Clippers who have survived both this season in playoffs past without the services of one of their big names.

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Dallas hasn't quite found the success it's been looking for on offense in this series, and after Sunday's loss we have to question how much longer this team's defense can survive.

Let's get further into this matchup below and find the best way to bet on Mavericks vs. Clippers on Wednesday.

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS FANDUEL ODDS FOR MAY 1

MONEY LINE

  • DALLAS MAVERICKS: -154
  • LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: +130

SPREAD

  • DALLAS MAVERICKS: -3 (-108)
  • LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: +3 (-112)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

  • OVER 208.5 (-110)
  • UNDER 208.5 (-110)

BEST ODDS FOR DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

  • The best odds on the Dallas Mavericks are over at BetMGM, where you'll pay -110 to lay just 2.5 points.
  • Caesars currently has the best odds on the underdogs, offering Clippers +3 (-110)
  • The best odds on the Over are at BetMGM, offering Over 208.5 (-110). You'll find the best odds on the Under by heading to BetRivers, offering Under 208.5 (-109)

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DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS INJURY REPORT

DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT

  • LUKA DONCIC - PROBABLE - KNEE
  • TIM HARDAWAY, JR. - OUT - ANKLE

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS INJURY REPORT

  • KAWHI LEONARD - OUT - KNEE

WHY DALLAS MAVERICKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Dallas is going to win this game with its work inside -- something that I never expected to say. This has long been a team which has struggled on both sides of the ball in the frontcourt and relied on outside shooting to power an offense which has had to produce at an other-worldly rate to win games. It's why I have had a hard time trusting the Mavericks; their style of play was highly volatile and simply hasn't been conducive to stringing together wins.

Well, the Mavericks have allowed just 50.1% of shots to fall from within four feet, an excellent mark, and they've also held LA to a solid 42.6% mark in the mid-range. The 3 has been a concern for this defense, but in an ironic twist that's not something that's always sustainable when you factor in shooting variance.

Dallas was able to score at a 72.6% clip at the rim in the final month of the season, and given the Clippers were one of the weakest teams in basketball in that regard all season -- and particularly in April -- that's where this game is going to need to be won. The Mavericks have floundered on offense all series, but that's theoretically their way into this one. They've also been able to win the battle on the boards in this series by a slim margin overall, but in two of the four games including their Game 4 loss. That should come in handy here given their solid frontcourt play, and highlights the importance of the frontcourt.

WHY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

There are far more reasons to believe in the Clippers covering the spread here, which we'll continue to harp on in our final prediction. They're playing extraordinary defense through four games versus one of the most lethal offenses in the game, limiting the Mavericks to just 109.5 points per 100 possessions -- a mark which is almost eight points off their season average.

They've also managed to hold the Mavericks to 33.6% shooting from outside, which is of great importance here and something that should prove to be sustainable. Dallas ranked 11th in 3-point shooting for the season, but that number really trailed off in April where they sat 23rd in the NBA. LA, meanwhile, graded out as the best 3-point defense in basketball during that time at a ridiculous 29.8% mark according to Cleaning the Glass after sitting just outside the top 10 for the season.

Yes, the defense takes a bit of a step back without Leonard, but thus far in the series we've seen this team is plenty capable of continuing to do what it does best. On the other side of the coin, the shooting exploded in Game 4 as it did in Game 1, and given the Clippers were fourth in the league on 3-pointers this season and will be trading in jumpers in the mid-range from Leonard for more triples, this may work out for them.

FINAL MAVERICKS-CLIPPERS PICK & PREDICTION

The Clippers have looked dominant all season without the help of their frontcourt, whether it was on the boards, offensively or defensively. They've driven a stake through teams with their excellence in both shooting and defending the 3, something that was incredibly evident in Sunday's win over the Mavericks.

Dallas owns one of the best collections of shooters in the league, but it has met their match in this series and on the whole has been running cold for the past month. This new-found love for playing inside just doesn't feel like one that's going to stick for a team that's had a wildly different identity, and even then the Mavericks have found it very difficult to score at the rim with the incredible success they had to close the season.

The only thing the Mavericks can do in order to win this game is praying the Clippers have a cold night from 3, something that doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the favorites here. LA has struggled a bit to shoot the 3 at home this year, but after going 18-for-36 from downtown in a mammoth Game 1 which was set at home, I think some of those fears should be alleviated.

Give me the team with the significantly stronger offensive outlook against a team which has deprived its opponent of its biggest weapon -- the 3.

FINAL MAVERICKS-CLIPPERS PICK & PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +125

To keep yourself updated on the newest happenings, be sure to check out our Betting News Section. We've organized all the updates so you can find all you need, in one convenient location.

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