Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Western Conference Semifinals betting odds and predictions

The Dallas Mavericks managed to power past one of the top offenses in the NBA when they dispatched of the LA Clippers in six games to open up their 2024 postseason, and will now meet another Western Conference powerhouse in the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Oklahoma City stands to give Dallas a better run for its money with a strong interior presence, something that it didn't encounter in the first round, which should really put the Mavericks' great improvements over the last month to the ultimate test.

Is this Mavericks frontcourt a legitimate threat, or was their first-round display merely a fluke?

Let's get into the best way to bet on the Mavericks vs. Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals.

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER FANDUEL ODDS

MONEY LINE

• DALLAS MAVERICKS: -102
• OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER: -120

SPREAD

• DALLAS MAVERICKS: +1.5 GAMES (-215)
• OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER: -1.5 GAMES (+172)

OVER/UNDER (TOTAL)

• OVER 5.5 GAMES (-180)
• UNDER 5.5 GAMES (+115)

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER GAME 1 INJURY REPORT

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER INJURY REPORT

• NONE

DALLAS MAVERICKS INJURY REPORT

• TIM HARDAWAY JR. - QUESTIONABLE - ANKLE
• MAXI KLEBER - OUT FOR SERIES - SHOULDER

WHY OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER WILL WIN THE SERIES

The Thunder, simply put, should win this series because they're the better team. Regular season success doesn't always translate come playoff time, and with an inexperienced group many are doubting this team's ability to make a run this summer against some deep, seasoned Western Conference teams.

If we go by what we've seen all year, though, Oklahoma City should be a much larger favorite. It finished the year as the top offense in the West and the second-best on defense. The team was also nearly unbeatable at home with 33 wins in 41 games and will hold home-court advantage here as the higher seed.

It's much harder to find reasons why this team won't win the series. Even in the first round, when the Thunder were slowed a bit offensively against the Phoenix Suns, the managed to post an other-worldly 93.5 defensive rating and will now head into a matchup against a Mavericks team which has struggled mightily on defense, only picking things up over the last month or so by leaning on their frontcourt. The Thunder ranked first in rim defense this year and were 10th in rim scoring, so it's hard to say Dallas will continue to look as good as it did in the first round.

WHY DALLAS MAVERICKS WILL WIN THE SERIES

While their series went deeper than the Thunder's did, it's hard to say the Mavericks faced a higher-caliber opponent. Still, they certainly did well to quiet the doubters with their excellence down low.

Yes, the Clippers aren't a very strong team around the rim, but we could have said the same thing about the Mavericks up until mid-March. They converted on 72.5% of their looks from within four feet this postseason, allowing just 50% on defense. Those rank among the best in the league during the playoffs, better than even the Thunder. When you factor in that the Thunder have continued to struggle on the boards, there's a strong case to be made that Dallas can win this series inside.

Then, you can consider the fact that a team that has long been predicated on the outside managed to shoot just 33.5% from outside in the first round, surviving 37.4% shooting on the other end of the floor. The Thunder can devastate from deep, but the Mavericks can as well -- even though we haven't seen it yet. There's a lot of upward mobility for this side.

FINAL MAVERICKS-THUNDER PICK & PREDICTION

I'm willing to acknowledge that the Mavericks have made great improvements in the frontcourt, but I think even their biggest believers would concede that these numbers we saw in the first round are inflated by facing an incredibly weak team on the interior whose focus lies on the 3-point line.

The Clippers won the war of attrition on the 3 point line with flying colors, but their performance was simply too inconsistent to survive their weakness inside. That's life with teams who live and die by the 3, as we've seen for years with Dallas, but the Thunder aren't really one of those teams.

Oklahoma City's incredible ability to defend inside should give it the advantage it needs in this one, given the Mavericks will run into a steep increase in competition. On the flip side, you'd expect the Thunder -- the third-best shooting team in the league -- to continue scoring from outside with what we saw out of Dallas in the first round. Mix in the fact that OKC allowed just 36.6% shooting from 3, and that the Mavericks are now down Maxi Kleber, and I think we see a pretty one-sided affair. I'm taking the alt line here.

FINAL MAVERICKS-THUNDER PICK & PREDICTION: THUNDER -1.5 GAMES (+172)

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