MLB Best Bets (April 29): Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Predictions, NRFI Pick & Home Run Targets

It’s not even May, and the managerial carousel is already spinning again.

The Boston Red Sox set the tone by firing Alex Cora last week after a 10-17 start, and just days later the Philadelphia Phillies followed suit, canning Rob Thomson amid a 9-19 skid.

Based off recent years, it’s unfortunately a familiar script. Early last season, teams like the Baltimore Orioles (Brandon Hyde) and Colorado Rockies (Bud Black) also pulled the plug in May after brutal starts. And yet, with more than five months of baseball still ahead, it’s fair to wonder how much these moves actually change things?

Jarren Duran of the Boston Red Sox (GETTY IMAGES)

Front offices may be trying to spark urgency, but history suggests April firings don't end well for any team that goes that route. It certainly didn't work well last year for Baltimore or Colorado. In my opinion, I think it looks like more of a panic move from a front office rather than making any real progress.

That brings me to my betting angle for Wednesday: if the market starts to price in added chaos without addressing Boston’s offensive shortcomings, there could be value fading them consistently this season.

With that in mind, here are our MLB best bets, NRFI picks, and home run favorites for the Wednesday slate of games.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

MLB Best Bets: Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Odds and Predictions

It’s been less than a week since former longtime Red Sox manager Alex Cora was fired. Cora finished his tenure with a 620-541 (.534) regular-season record across seven seasons. He led the team to three postseason berths, including a historic 2018 World Series championship, and is ranked among the top managers in team history for wins.

Despite a slow start this year, it seems many (including myself) wondered why the front office pulled the trigger so soon on Cora. He led Boston to the playoffs last year and was dealing with a worse roster this year after losing Alex Bregman.

With that said, I didn’t believe in the Red Sox on paper before the season started, and now I certainly don’t believe in them without Cora. I will look to fade them more often this season, and I believe this is a good spot to do just that.

Fade Bello, Expect Better From Toronto Going Forward

On the other hand, I believe this is a good matchup for Toronto and think better days are ahead following an AL pennant-winning season in 2025 that came inches away from a World Series.

Most importantly, the Jays will face a struggling young pitcher in Brayan Bello (9.00 ERA, 2.27 WHIP) whom they’ve had major success against. In 75 combined at-bats against Bello, Toronto sports an impressive .320 team average with an .837 OPS. Specifically, everyday players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1.153 OPS), Jesus Sanchez (1.100 OPS), and Eloy Jimenez (1.167 OPS) all have had notable success against Bello in their careers.

Reinforcements Incoming?

Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that outfielder/designated hitter George Springer could be activated from the 10-day injured list Wednesday, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. Springer has been on the IL for over two weeks due to a fractured left big toe.

Springer hit .185/.290/.370 with two home runs with six RBIs across 62 plate appearances before getting injured.

However, the veteran outfielder is coming off a career year and emerged as a key leader during the Jays' pennant run in 2025, hitting .309 with 32 home runs and 18 stolen bases across 586 plate appearances. As I do with the team itself, I think better days are ahead for Springer.

Looking for more MLB and sports betting promotions? We have gathered a list of the best sports betting offers here.

Reasons To Back The Over

One of the more unknown tricks in betting baseball totals is knowing who’s calling balls and strikes behind the plate. It’s not the most important aspect, but it’s often the proverbial nail in the coffin to me. For this matchup, I don’t trust either Bello or Eric Lauer (6.75 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), but I do trust home plate umpire James Jean to make the zone tight for any pitcher on the bump.

According to EV Analytics, Jean ranks as the fourth most hitter-friendly umpire in the league, allowing a 4.14 ERA when he’s behind the plate. Even with the introduction of ABS challenges, this advantage often goes under the radar because most people have no idea who the umpires are, and you get the benefit of the borderline pitches.

Baseball is a weird game, and one strike called a ball could all of a sudden lead to a rally, and vice versa.

In addition to those points, Rogers Centre is recognized as a hitter's ballpark (ranked No. 8 on Baseball Savant’s ballpark factor), especially in April when hitters can avoid the harsh Canadian weather in a heated dome.

• My Pick: Blue Jays ML (-130, FanDuel), Over 8 (-118, DraftKings)

Despite similar records after over a month of baseball, trust Toronto to turn things around soon and get a series win at home against a reeling Red Sox team.

If you parlay both of these, the odds end up at +239 on FanDuel.

MLB Best Bets: NRFI Pick Of The Day

• My Pick: Tigers vs. Braves Under 0.5 1st Inning (-130, FanDuel)

Even with the amount of star power we'll be seeing at the plate in the first inning (Ronald Acuna Jr., Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson), I trust the starting pitching enough to get a scoreless first inning.

I couldn't find the numbers on how often the under hits in general, but it should go without saying that it’s generally a good idea to expect a low-scoring affair when Tarik Skubal (2.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) is on the hill.

I don't feel the need to go to deep into why you can trust the Tigers' ace to get a scoreless first against this red-hot Braves lineup. In a contract year, Skubal is performing well so far in the biggest season of his elite career and is attempting to become the first pitcher to win three straight Cy Young awards since Randy Johnson.

Meanwhile, Braves top prospect JR Richie will get his second start after he dazzled in his debut in Washington — pitching 7 innings and allowing two earned runs over seven innings with seven strikeouts.

Thrillzz

4.8/5

FREE $100K Pick’em Entry

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

Get 100% on any coins purchase up to $100

Claim Now

MLB Best Bets: Home Run Picks Of The Day

• My Pick: Bryce Harper (+540 via FanDuel), Kyle Schwarber (+280 via FanDuel)

It will be a great matchup with ideal hitting conditions for Phillies stars Bryce Harper (.269 AVG, .859 OPS) and Kyle Schwarber (.851 OPS, 9 HRs) on Wednesday night.

Going up against Giants ace Logan Webb, both sluggers have combined for 15 home runs this year and also have solid career numbers against him. Harper has gone 4-for-8 with a home run and Schwarber has gone 2-for-6 with a home run and a walk.

Winds are also expected to be blowing out to right field at 15 mph, making the already hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park a launch pad for left-handed power hitters.