MLB Best Bets: Astros vs. Cubs Predictions, NRFI Pick & Home Run Targets (May 22)

As a die-hard Cubs fan, summer Fridays at 1:20 p.m. in Chicago is considered peak regular-season baseball.

A packed Wrigley Field bleacher crowd, the ivy finally filled in, day baseball on a national broadcast — it’s one of the best atmospheres the sport has to offer and I'll die on that hill.

The only problem? The Cubs come into Friday's game limping after getting swept in arguably their biggest home series of the season against Milwaukee. With injuries piling up across the pitching staff and the offense slumping at the wrong time, they now draw the one Houston starter who’s quietly been breaking out.

(Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)

Add in chill afternoon temperatures, heavy winds blowing in at Wrigley and a Houston offense struggling to find consistency after losing its lead-off man, and this matchup has all the ingredients of a pitchers’ duel early on.

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You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

MLB Best Bets: Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs Odds and Predictions (May 22)

As bad as the Cubs have been recently, Houston rolls into the North Side this weekend in an even worse position overall at 20-31. The Astros are seeing their glory years come to an end after missing the playoffs last season and struggling through the first two months of the year with one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball.

That being said, Friday starter Spencer Arrighetti (1.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) has been the lone bright spot in Houston’s rotation in 2026. He’s not a household name yet, but the 26-year-old third-year pro is in the early stages of a breakout season with impressive peripheral numbers, including a .176 opponent batting average and just one home run allowed over 36 innings pitched.

Arrighetti will have to deal with Nico Hoerner (.264 AVG, .739 OPS), Michael Busch (27 RBIs) and Alex Bregman (.249 AVG, 16 RBIs) in Friday's matchup.

Cubs Offense Continues To Spiral

About a month ago, I would have stayed away from backing Arrighetti against this lineup. But it feels like the ideal time to fade it with the way Chicago has been hitting lately.

Over the past 15 days, the Cubs have the third-worst team batting average in baseball at .192. It doesn’t get much better for Houston, which is hitting .200 as a team over that same stretch. The Astros’ lineup just hasn’t been the same since losing star shortstop Carlos Correa (.279 AVG, .787 OPS) to a season-ending injury.

Meanwhile, Cubs starter Jameson Taillon (4.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) is having a below-average year statistically and is coming off one of his worst starts as a Cub after allowing eight earned runs on the South Side last weekend.

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Why Taillon Could Be Due

Still, there are reasons to believe Taillon settles in Friday afternoon. Over the past three seasons, Taillon has historically pitched much better at Wrigley Field during day games than in most other situations. Last season alone, he posted a 3.05 ERA and 0.92 WHIP at home across 59 innings while holding opposing hitters to a .223 average.

With a case to be made for both starters having solid outings, I don’t trust either bullpen much. The Astros have the third-worst bullpen ERA in the league at 5.01, while the Cubs’ bullpen has been about average on paper with a 4.01 collective ERA.

On top of all that, the weather at Wrigley should only help the pitchers, with temperatures in the high 50s and 15 MPH winds blowing in from center field.

• My Friday Pick: Astros vs. Cubs Under F5 4.5 (-170 via FanDuel)

I like the taking the alternate line here instead of under 3.5 F5 (+104 FanDuel), I like the value of -178 because at almost every other book under 4.5 is at least -200 as of late on Thursday night. I don't mind under 3.5, but sometimes you need to take advantage when you find an alternate line at a good price.

A $100 dollar bettor would take just under $60 in profit if this cashes.

MLB Best Bets: NRFI Pick Of The Day

• My Pick: Astros vs. Cubs Under 0.5 1st Inning (-155 via DraftKings)

For the same reason I like the early total in the game, I'm going to trust each starter to get a scoreless first inning on top of that.

Like I wrote earlier, the biggest thing working in our favor is the current form of both offenses. Both top halves of each lineup are clearly pressing at the plate right now, chasing pitches out of the zone and struggling to come up with timely hits.

Six simple outs.

MLB Best Bets: Home Run Picks Of The Day

• Julio Rodriguez HR (+490 via FanDuel), Bobby Witt Jr. HR (+470 via FanDuel)

I'm targeting the Mariners-Royals game on Friday night as one for potential home runs from the top of each lineup.

Bobby Witt Jr. (.299 AVG, 7 HRs) is having another good season — even if the power numbers haven't fully matched expectations yet — and he has great numbers against Mariners starter Logan Gilbert. Witt is 7-for-14 against Gilbert in his career with four walks and a home run.

Julio Rodriguez (.743 OPS, 8 HRs) is also having a solid year despite average power numbers overall. However, Rodríguez has been heating up in May after a slow start to the season, hitting six of his eight home runs this month. J-Rod's recent tear, combined with a matchup against struggling lefty Noah Cameron (5.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP), gives him solid value with odds approaching +500.

Another factor is the weather. Kauffman Stadium should have ideal conditions for right-handed power Friday night, with temperatures in the 70s and winds blowing out to right field.