MLB Best Bets (August 19): Shohei Ohtani and PCA Home Run Odds & Predictions

The MLB season is approaching September, and that's when the best players are expected to elevate their game. As Hall of Famer Dave Parker once said about his ability to be clutch late in a season: "When the leaves turn brown, I'll be wearing the batting crown."

Two National League superstars are swinging hot bats in recent days: Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs. Those teams might be on a collision course to meet in the playoffs. But they're definitely crossing paths as the top contenders for NL Most Valuable Player.

In my baseball betting breakdown today I make Ohtani and PCA picks, as well as Best Bet choices for the Windy City Series between the White Sox and Cubs, Diamondbacks at the Red Sox.

Betting offers are available for baseball bettors from the leading sports betting apps. Odds in this article are from DraftKings and FanDuel.

Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run: +207 DraftKings

Since July 28, Ohtani is hitting like Ty Cobb and slugging like Hank Aaron: .360 AVG with seven homers, 13 extra-base hits, .733 SLG. Tonight, he and the Dodgers will be taking their swings one mile above sea level.

In 25 career games at Coors Field, Ohtani is raking .398 with 39 hits(!), nine HR, and a 1142 OPS. Ohtani is a beast at the plate in many ballparks, but among venues where he's had at least 50 plate appearances, his average at Coors Field in Denver is the highest.

But while those numbers may be enough to prompt me to throw-in on a Ohtani prop bet, these stats clinch it: Ohtani vs Kyle Freeland: 9-for-16 (.563), 3 HR, 9 RBI. Freeland will be on the mound tonight against the Dodgers.

Based on all the factors I've outlined here, I'm going for an Ohtani HR bet:

• Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run: +207 from DraftKings

I'm betting $20 on this Ohtani HR Prop Bet. If I win, my payout is $61.

Want a second option? Ohtani has reached base in 18 of his last 20 games. He has a .459 OBP at Coors Field.

• BEST BET: Shohei Ohtani 1+ Walks: +153 from DraftKings

I'm allocating one full unit ($100) on this Best Bet. If Ohtani records at least one walk tonight vs. Colorado, my winnings are $153, plus my stake.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong To Record A Walk: +120 FanDuel

Earlier this week, Pete Crow-Armstrong achieved his second 30 HR/30 SB season. He's now joined Sammy Sosa as the only Cubs to have 30+ homers and steals in the same season. Most importantly for his team, PCA is heating up as the summer wears on: 6-for-13 with 4 HR with 6 RBI in his last three games.

Odds for NL MVP now show Crow-Armstrong as the favorite (-165 according to FanDuel). His main competition is Ohtani at +130.

Sean Newcombe (2 HR allowed in 65 IP) is starting for the White Sox against PCA and the Cubs this afternoon. I want to stay away from Crow-Armstrong HR props because that market can be tough to defeat. Instead, I like PCA to grab a walk, as teams are pitching him more closely.  Crow-Armstrong has 13 walks in 17 games this month.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong To Record 1+ Walk: +120 from FanDuel Sportsbook

Cubs vs. White Sox Game Prop: +238 NRFI and Cubs to Score First Run (DraftKings)

The Cubs can move to 20 games over .500 if they defeat the first-place White Sox today. Newcombe will serve as an opener for the Sox, likely going once through the order at most. He's a tough lefty, and the Sox have held opponents scoreless in the first inning the third-most in baseball.

• Under 0.5 Runs in First Inning
• Cubs First Team To Score
• Parlay Odds: +238 from DraftKings

The Cubs are second in MLB in scoring the first run most often, according to StatMuse. A winning $100 bet will return $238 for this MLB parlay.

Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Prop Bets (FanDuel)

Much is going wrong for Arizona. The team has lost three straight. Its star second baseman Ketel Marte is mysteriously absent, having (apparently) returned to Phoenix following a no-show at the ballpark in Boston this week. The Diamondbacks have gotten dreadful pitching lately: 25 runs in three games on this current road trip.

The DBacks are a different team away from home: 30-34 on the road compared to 26-27 at home. The team has a -18 run differential as the road team, as opposed to +21 in their home ballpark.

Without Marte in the lineup, I like the Red Sox to finish off a sweep of the Diamondbacks at Fenway Park tonight. The Red Sox are beating opponents into submission this month: their average winning margin in their most recent nine wins going back to August 2 is 7.2 runs. When Boston beats you, it pins you to the mat.

• BEST BET: Boston -1.5 Runs vs Arizona: +134