MLB Dinger Tuesday Bets: Corbin Carroll Leads Home Run Picks for Aug. 4

We’ve got a loaded Tuesday slate in Major League Baseball, and with Dinger Tuesday back on the schedule, there’s no shortage of intriguing home run opportunities.

(Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Finding the right long ball picks takes more than simply backing the biggest names. Every matchup requires digging into the numbers. Pitcher splits, batted-ball data, hard-hit rates, weather, ballpark dimensions and recent form all play a role in identifying where the value lies.

After breaking down Tuesday’s slate, these are the four hitters who stand out as my favorite home run targets.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

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MLB Dinger Tuesday Picks: Home Run Predictions for August 4

Best MLB Home Run Bet: Corbin Carroll HR (+460 via FanDuel)

Corbin Carroll has been one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball when he's playing at Chase Field, and Tuesday sets up as another prime opportunity for the Arizona Diamondbacks star to leave the yard.

The left-handed slugger has already enjoyed success against San Diego Padres starter Randy Vasquez, going 5-for-12 with three doubles and zero strikeouts in their previous meetings. While none of those hits have left the yard yet, consistently squaring up a pitcher without swinging and missing is exactly the type of profile you want when targeting a home run prop.

Carroll's home and road splits are impossible to ignore. At Chase Field, he's produced a .947 OPS with 10 home runs, compared to just a .719 OPS and six home runs on the road. Few players receive a bigger boost from their home environment, and Arizona's lineup in general has consistently been more dangerous offensively in Phoenix.

The matchup also favors left-handed power. Vasquez has allowed an .895 OPS to left-handed hitters, compared to a .753 OPS against righties.

Carroll's combination of elite bat speed, plus power and aggressive approach against fastballs makes this one of the better individual matchups on the slate. With great BvP history, elite home splits, and a pitcher who has struggled against lefties, Carroll checks every box for a long ball.

Best MLB Home Run Bet: Kazuma Okamoto HR (+430 via FanDuel)

One of my favorite values on the board is Kazuma Okamoto, who feels underpriced considering both his matchup and the ballpark.

Okamoto has quickly established himself as one of the better power hitters in the American League this season. His raw power honestly plays anywhere, but Tuesday's matchup gives him an even higher ceiling.

He'll face Hayden Wesneski, who has historically struggled to limit right-handed power, allowing 1.59 HR/9 to right-handed hitters over his career. Wesneski is capable of generating strikeouts, but when hitters elevate against him, the damage tends to come in bunches.

The ballpark is another reason that I like this spot. The Crawford Boxes in Houston remain one of baseball's friendliest targets for right-handed pull power, and that's exactly the profile Okamoto brings to the plate.

A routine fly ball elsewhere can easily become a souvenir for a lucky fan in Houston. Who knows what movie I'm referencing there?

Anyway, between the favorable ballpark, Wesneski's struggles against righties, and Okamoto's power profile in general, this feels like one of the better value bets on Tuesday's board.

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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Drake Baldwin HR (+390 via FanDuel)

Atlanta second-year catcher Drake Baldwin continues to fly under the radar, but the underlying metrics suggest he's becoming one of the Braves' most dangerous left-handed bats.

Baldwin enters Tuesday with roughly 90% pitch coverage against Ryan Gusto's arsenal, giving him a significant matchup advantage. Gusto has struggled badly over his last three starts, posting a 6.10 ERA while allowing a 51.6% hard-hit rate, and those struggles become even more concerning when facing left-handed hitters.

Against the last 60 left-handed batters he's faced, Gusto has surrendered a .345 expected batting average, .489 expected slugging percentage, .365 expected wOBA, along with a 50% hard-hit rate and just a 35.7% ground-ball rate. Those are exactly the type of Statcast indicators bettors should be targeting when looking for home run value.

Baldwin has been scorching right-handed pitching recently. Over his last 30 at-bats against righties, he's posted a .925 OPS and .417 wOBA while producing a massive 63.2% hard-hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate. When hitters are barreling baseballs at that rate, home runs often follow.

Everything points toward another big performance, and I'd still consider this playable anywhere down to +300.

Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jac Caglianone HR (+398 via DraftKings)

It's never easy betting against Joe Ryan because of his strikeout ability, but the matchup actually sets up much better for Jac Caglianone than many bettors may realize.

Ryan has always been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and while that approach leads to plenty of strikeouts, it also leaves him vulnerable to home runs, especially against left-handed hitters. This season he's allowed 1.59 HR/9 to lefties, while historically surrendering a .426 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters compared to .376 against righties.

Caglianone's own platoon splits are equally encouraging. He's slugging .471 against right-handed pitching, compared to .420 against lefties, and his elite raw power gives him legitimate home run potential every time he steps into the batter's box.

There's also some familiarity here. Caglianone is 3-for-7 against Ryan with a double, proving he's already capable of seeing the Twins right-hander well. Meanwhile, Ryan hasn't looked like himself recently, allowing 12 earned runs across his last two starts, suggesting he may not be at his sharpest entering Tuesday.

The weather should only help. Forecasts call for temperatures in the low 90s in Kansas City, creating excellent hitting conditions with the baseball expected to carry better than usual. Warm summer nights have historically been some of the best environments for home run betting.

Ryan remains one of baseball's better pitchers overall, but his fly-ball tendencies, struggles against left-handed power, recent form, and Caglianone's success against righties make this a spot worth attacking.