MLB Best Bets: Dodgers at Diamondbacks Odds, Predictions, NRFI Pick & Home Run Predictions (June 4)

We’re into June, and with the NBA Finals underway, baseball is still a couple weeks away from fully taking over the country’s attention once basketball wraps up and the summer MLB grind kicks into full force.

(Photo by Connor Jalbert/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

In the meantime, check out what our basketball writers and handicappers have been putting out for this NBA Finals series.

However, Thursday's MLB slate may be limited, but there’s still a key NL West matchup on tap between two teams with legitimate playoff aspirations. In a smaller overall set, this rivalry game should take center stage with both clubs right in the playoff mix.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

MLB Best Bets: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds and Prediction (June 4)

A late-night NL West showdown closes out a competitive series between two division rivals that both sit above .500. The Diamondbacks (32-29) grabbed Game 1 with a 4-1 win, but the Dodgers (40-22) responded by taking the next two games, including a dominant 7-0 shutout in Game 3 to take control of the set heading into the finale.

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Look Beyond the Surface-Level Stats for Both Starters

Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski (2.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) is not exactly a household name yet, but the 25-year-old lefty continues to put together a breakout season in his third MLB campaign.

He’s also coming off a start where he put the league on notice on national TV last week. Against Philadelphia, he delivered a strong outing under the lights against a quality lineup, further cementing his spot in the Dodgers rotation.

After struggling in a starting role as a rookie in 2024 (5.70 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), Los Angeles shifted him into the bullpen in 2025, where he showed flashes. This season, he’s been given another rotation opportunity—and so far, he’s overachieved to say the least.

The problem is the matchup. Arizona has been one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. This year, the team is hitting .279 with a .788 OPS versus southpaws. They’re also a top-tier home offense, posting a .732 team OPS in Arizona.

Ketel Marte is also expected to return to the lineup after missing time, avoiding an IL stint and immediately lengthening an already dangerous Arizona order.

On the other side, Ryne Nelson (4.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) has quietly held his own against Los Angeles in limited looks, allowing just a .194 average across 98 career at-bats against the Dodgers. That includes tough history for key bats like Shohei Ohtani (2-for-15), Freddie Freeman (4-for-17), Will Smith (2-for-12), and Andy Pages (1-for-14).

Why I'm Fading the Dodgers

Even with those splits, Nelson’s season-long numbers still point to some regression risk, especially against a Dodgers lineup that just hung a 7-0 shutout in this series and can flip a game quickly when it gets rolling.

• My Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (+120 DraftKings)

I know, it’s a risk to fade a team like the Dodgers. But in a league where teams play every day, there are spots where you can go against elite clubs. You just have to pick your spots carefully.

Arizona’s elite production against left-handed pitching and strong home offensive profile make them a live plus-money option in a game that still feels tighter than the recent momentum suggests.

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MLB Best Bets: NRFI, Total Pick for June 4

• My Pick: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies Under 0.5 1st inning (-113 via FanDuel), Under 8 total (-105 via FanDuel)

Phillies ace Zach Wheeler (2.27 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) has once again looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He enters Thursday with over 11 strikeouts per nine innings through his first 12 starts. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of those outings. He's continuing to pitch deep into games consistently.

He needs no introduction and is considered one of the more reliable starters in baseball this season. Also, he's consistently avoided early damage, especially at home.

Padres starter Lucas Giolito, on the other hand, is the wildcard in this matchup. He owns a 4.97 ERA with some glaring command issues at times. While he still flashes strikeout ability, the command profile creates early-inning risk against a patient lineup like Philadelphia.

Luckily for Giolito, this is the time to play in Philly. Recently, the Phillies' lineup has also been extremely limited, and the Padres haven’t been much better. Over the last 15 days, both lineups rank as the two worst in baseball:

• Phillies: .196 AVG / .606 OPS
• Padres: .200 AVG / .605 OPS

Despite a matchup featuring elite hitters (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis), with both offenses struggling and Wheeler consistently looking elite, the NRFI and under seems like the cleanest angle in this matchup.

MLB Best Bets: Thursday Home Run Prediction

• My Pick: Gunnar Henderson HR (+420 FanDuel)

This is a strong matchup spot for Gunnar Henderson in a hitter-friendly environment against spiraling Red Sox starter Brayan Bello.

Bello has been one of the most vulnerable starters in baseball this season. This is especially against left-handed hitters, allowing a .937 OPS and 8 home runs to lefties. His overall command issues have led to hard contact and inconsistent outings. That is a tough profile to bring into Fenway.

The specific matchup history also leans heavily toward Henderson. He’s gone 7-for-22 with two home runs in 22 career at-bats vs. Bello. In addition, he's been consistently seeing the ball well against Bello's stuff.

Fenway Park itself only adds to the appeal as it’s considered one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the MLB.