MLB Best Bets, Home Run Picks & Player Props for Tuesday, May 26

As we near the end of May, most MLB teams have reached the one-third mark (54 games). That's my road marker for taking a clear evaluation of a team and players.

(Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Once a third of the schedule has been played, we should be able to make decisions on which teams are contenders and which are not. We should be able to ascertain which players are for real and which are phonies. For the latter, just take a look at the Detroit Tigers' roster.

In this baseball betting guide, I make three picks for tonight's MLB action, including a mid-week parlay. We have interesting games on tap in New York, Arlington, San Diego, and two in Missouri, in Kansas City and St. Louis.

Odds in this article are from BetMGM Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, May 26

If you're hoping to find more sports betting and MLB promotions this week, take a look at our list of the best sports betting offers here.

Juan Soto Home Run Odds

Sit up, pay attention, baseball fans: Juan Soto is healthy, and he's doing what Juan Soto does: smash the baseball. In his last five games, Soto has four home runs, and he's produced three multi-hit games. No matter what ailments malign him, no matter how much fans chirp about his antics and slumps, Soto always heats up and always posts big numbers. In eight big league seasons, he's finished in the top ten in MVP voting six times, and in the other two seasons, he was an All-Star and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting.

Soto and his last-place New York Mets are hosting the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field, where they are 11-14 this season. The Mets have dropped four straight despite Soto's mashing at the plate. That's why we want to stay away from a game prop in this one. Instead, I like Soto to keep his stroke going.

Here's why you should lean into Soto tonight: home/road splits. This season, Soto is slashing 344/440/578 at Citi Field. Those same numbers are 250/345/542 on the road. His home OPS is a Ruthian (Babe) 1.018, as opposed to .887 away from his home park.

• Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run (+310 BetMGM)

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Same Game Parlay

The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies are two of the three teams in the National League that have the best chance to topple the Dodgers. Both have dangerous lineups. The Padres have an impressive bullpen. The Phillies have a staff with potential aces and a great closer.

The demise of the Phillies has been greatly exaggerated. Now under Don Mattingly, Philadelphia is only three games out of a playoff spot in the loss column. Should the Phillies make it to the postseason, they're capable of getting white-hot like the Knicks just did in the NBA.

For this parlay, we need two-time former batting champ Trea Turner and two-time former MVP Bryce Harper to get us some crooked offensive numbers. Both are too good to be slacking off.

Another reason to bet on Harper and Turner tonight: both have season numbers that look unusually thin compared to their reputation. But in fact, both are hitting better than the numbers suggest. Harper ranks 7th in MLB in xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average). Turner is 9th in MLB in Adjusted OPS since May 15. He's been raking, even if the hits are not falling in as much as he and the Phils would like.

Sheets is a good second-generation ballplayer who murders fastballs. He'll get plenty of four-seamers from Aaron Nola of the Phillies. That's because Nola is using his four-seamer and cut fastball about 36% of the time, according to Statcast. Opponents are hitting over .400 against the four-seamer, a pitch Sheets can square up on.

• Bryce Harper To Record 2+ Total Bases
• Gavin Sheets To Record 1+ RBI
• Trea Turner To Record 2+ Hits, Runs and RBI

Odds for this three-leg parlay are +700 from the BetMGM sports betting app. Find MLB odds at any of the acclaimed and reviewed betting sites.

Aaron Judge vs. Bobby Witt Jr. in Yankees vs Royals

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals are opposite sides of the same coin. The Yankees are 32-22, the Royals are 22-32. New York is in second-place, firmly ensconced in a playoff spot that is almost surely theirs to hold.

Yet, a Yankees/Royals game is exciting because it means Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. are on the same field. Those players are not just stars, they're Superstars with drop shadows and fireworks surrounding the marquee.

Judge is on pace to hit 50 home runs again. If he should do so, he will become the first player to accomplish it five times. He's averaging 2.2 H+R+RBI (Hits + Runs + RBI) per game. Tonight I need two H+R+RBI to win the parlay listed below.

Mercurial infielder Bobby Witt Jr. is six inches shorter and about 80 pounds lighter than Judge. But he's a better baseball player. Which is why this sport is fascinating: raw physical features are important, but talent is at the core of what makes a legend. Witt Jr. is lifting his average up-up-up, and he once again leads the American League in hits. He is on pace for 25 HR, 50 stolen bases, 200 hits, and another Gold Glove Award at shortstop.

Tonight in KC, as the Yankees and Royals square off, my sights are on the two stars, and this parlay is on my betting slip with BetMGM:

• Aaron Judge To Record 2+ Hits, Runs, and RBI
• Bobby Witt Jr. To Record 2+ Hits

Witt Jr. ranks third in MLB in multi-hit games, with 19. His expected stats in batting average are in the top 15 in MLB, according to Statcast.

Odds for this parlay are +325 from BetMGM.