MLB Best Bets (June 19): Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, NRFI Pick & Home Run Predictions Today

Friday’s MLB slate brings a strong mix of pitching-heavy matchups, intriguing NRFI spots and a few plus-money prop opportunities worth targeting. With several aces taking the mound and multiple offenses struggling to find consistency, this feels like a strong card to lean into unders and pitcher-friendly environments.

From a low-scoring matchup in Seattle and a home run prop with strong value, there are several spots that stand out heading into the weekend.

(Photo by Maddy Grassy/Getty Images)

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Ballislife Bets has gathered a list of the best sports betting offers here for more MLB and sports betting promotions.

MLB Best Bets: Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners Odds and Prediction (June 19)

Mariners starter Bryce Miller (3-0, 1.54 ERA) dealt with an injury to start the season but looks to be in elite form since returning to the mound.

The 27-year-old right-hander is six starts into his season with excellent numbers, and only two of those outings have come at home. In those two starts in Seattle, Miller has not allowed a run and has surrendered just two total hits.

Boston’s offense enters this game in brutal form. Over the past 15 days, the Red Sox rank 27th in team batting average and 26th in OPS at .220 and .659, respectively.

Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez (2-3, 3.21 ERA) has settled in nicely with Boston despite receiving very little run support.

I was a bit concerned when I saw Seattle hitters own a staggering .340 average with an .893 OPS against Suarez. But that concern was eased after digging deeper into the individual matchups. Key Seattle bats such as Josh Naylor (1-for-9), Cal Raleigh (0-for-5) and J.P. Crawford (0-for-2) have all struggled against the veteran lefty.

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Injury To Julio Rodriguez Could Impact Mariners-Red Sox Game Today

The biggest exception is Julio Rodriguez, who is 5-for-6 against Suarez. However, there a legitimate chance he misses this game after getting injured two days ago and missing Thursday's game.

With strong reasons to trust both starters, each bullpen can also be counted on to help protect this total. Both units rank inside the top 10 in team ERA, with Boston at 3.66 and Seattle at 3.45.

Seattle’s home-field advantage should also help keep runs down. According to Ballpark Factor, T-Mobile Park is tied as the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB over the past three seasons.

Curious what the other park is? It’s Globe Life Field in Arlington, home of the Rangers — which is worth remembering for my NRFI pick later.

• My Pick: Under 6.5 Total Runs (-102 via FanDuel)

I see a clear angle here to trust both starters and two quality bullpens in a ballpark that suppresses offense as well as any in baseball. Unless one of these lineups breaks trend in a big way, runs should be hard to come by.

MLB Best Bets Today: NRFI Pick for June 19

• My Pick: Red Sox vs. Mariners NRFI (-170 via FanDuel), Padres vs. Rangers NRFI (-138 via FanDuel)

I’m going with two NRFI picks on Friday night, and I’m not going to spend much time on the first one because I essentially just did.

For the game in Texas, I’ll walk you through my thought process behind predicting a scoreless first inning.

We’ll start with the top half, where ace Jacob deGrom (5-4, 3.17 ERA) takes the mound against a scuffling Padres lineup. I probably don’t need to explain trusting deGrom — if you’ve watched baseball over the past decade, you know what he brings.

But fading this San Diego lineup? That’s where things get interesting. Yes, the Padres are over .500 and having a solid year, but that’s been driven mostly by pitching.

Why Padres-Rangers NRFI Pick Makes Sense

Despite featuring potential future Hall of Fame talent like Fernando Tatis Jr. (.284 AVG, 26 RBIs), Manny Machado (.615 OPS, 12 HRs) and Jackson Merrill (.636 OPS, 8 HRs), San Diego ranks near the bottom of the league in several offensive categories, including a league-worst .218 team batting average and a .652 OPS.

The bottom half of the inning is trickier, but I still like the matchup.

Padres starter Randy Vasquez (3.63 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) has had a strong overall season, though he’s cooled off recently with a 5.14 ERA in June.

Still, his history against Texas and his road splits make me believe a bounce-back outing is possible. Across 26 career at-bats, Rangers hitters are batting just .115 with a .448 OPS against Vasquez.

Away from San Diego, Vasquez has also been excellent, posting a 2.08 ERA.

Friday Home Run Prediction

• My Pick: Dillon Dingler HR (+383 via DraftKings)

Dillon Dingler stands out as one of the better home run values on Friday’s board given both his recent power production and the matchup.

The Detroit Tigers catcher has quietly emerged as a legitimate power threat this season, posting an .851 OPS with 16 home runs while consistently punishing mistakes in the zone.

That sets up well against White Sox starter Erick Fedde (2-5, 4.50 ERA), who has been extremely vulnerable to right-handed power. Fedde has allowed 3.09 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters this season, one of the worst marks among qualified starters.

With Dingler continuing to show legitimate pop and Fedde struggling to keep the ball in the yard, these odds feel longer than they should.