MLB Best Bets (March 30): Yankees vs. Mariners, Red Sox vs. Astros Picks & NRFI Odds

For just the second day of the MLB season, all 30 teams are in action tonight. In Seattle, the two players who finished 1-2 in the American League Most Valuable Player voting last season will be on the same field. That game brings an opportunity for game and player prop bets on my next betting slip.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

Starting this week, I'll write two articles each week with my MLB Best Bets picks. In this article I have two game picks and a player prop bet. Odds are from FanDuel and DraftKings, unless noted otherwise.

MLB Best Bets: Yankees -1.5 Runs (+172) vs. Mariners

Two playoff teams from a year ago start a three-game series in the Pacific Northwest tonight as the Yankees meet the Seattle Mariners. Last fall, the Mariners came within a whisker of advancing to their first World Series.

Many experts are picking one of these teams to win the 2026 AL pennant. Early as we are, the Yankees look outstanding, coming off a sweep of the Giants. Practically everything went right in the Yankees' first three games: offense, starting and relief pitching, and even defense. The fans who have been hunting for the head of manager Aaron Boone are being waylaid for a while.

The Yankees have outscored the opposition 13-1 this season. That's a small sample, and while it could be an indicator that this team is going to have a great spring, I don't want to get too excited about the Bronx Bombers because of the success last week in San Francisco.

However, I do put importance on the recent history between the Yanks and M's. In their last 10 meetings, New York is 8-2 against Seattle, including 4-2 on the road. The Yankees have outscored the Mariners 60-29 in the last 10 games the two teams have played.

Tonight the Yanks will face Luis Castillo, who has a 2.64 ERA against NY in his last five starts against it. He has surrendered five home runs in those games, including two HR twice. The Yankees only have three HR in their first three games, two of them by 2026 AL MVP Aaron Judge.

This matchup: Castillo vs. Judge, has been one-sided. Judge is batting .400 with a HR, and reached base nine times in 15 plate appearances against the Mariners righty.

On the other side, last year's MVP runner-up, Cal Raleigh, will be facing Ryan Weathers for the first time. The unfamiliarity with Weathers is a big reason I like the Yankees -1.5 Runs at +172 from FanDuel Sportsbook. A winning $100 wager would pay $172.

• BEST BET: NYY -1.5 Runs (+172 from FanDuel)

NRFI Odds & Bet (March 30): Red Sox at Astros

Following a lackluster first two games, the Houston Astros offense awoke and plated 20 runs on Saturday and Sunday combined. Both the Red Sox and Astros, who meet in Houston tonight, have top lineups.

Houston starter Lance McCullers Jr. has a 5.40 ERA against the Red Sox in his last 5 starts against that team. The Sox have started the season 1-2, but there are signs the offense is just fine. The heralded outfield trio of Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela are hitting .361, and they only have seven strikeouts between them.

So far in four games, the Astros have scored in the first inning only once. The Red Sox have yet to score a first-inning run. Those trends will flip eventually.

A $102 winning bet on a run being scored in the first would pay $100.

• BEST BET: First Inning Runs Over 0.5  (-102 from DraftKings)

Thrillzz

4.8/5

March Madness Picks at Thrillzz 🏀

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

400% Extra: Deposit $10 Get $50

Claim Now

Home Run Prop Bet (March 30)

It would easy (and lazy) to lay down a player prop bet on either Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh to hit a home run tonight when their teams meet in Seattle, Instead, I've located a different player who will be on the field in the Red Sox-Astros game.

Houston outfielder Joey Loperfido has a top 15 Hard Hit Percentage for the last two seasons. That's all of the 2025 MLB season and the first week here in 2026. Loperfido isn't a household name. But he's going to be an All-Star, maybe as soon as this season. That's because he barrels up and hits the baseball hard. It's why the Astros moved Yordfan Alvarez off left field to make room for him.

Somehow, Houston keeps restocking its lineup with excellent hitters. I'll take "Joe Cooks" to go deep against the Red Sox tonight at the ballpark we used to call "The Juice Box" for a reason.

• BEST BET: Joey Loperfido to Hit a Home Run (+1100)

I'll go in with a $20 bet for Loperfido, and if he goes deep against Boston tonight, I'll win $220.