MLB Best Bets (May 12): NRFI, Home Run Prop Bets Featuring Giants, Dodgers & Yankees

A few marquee pitchers are on the mound tonight in Major League Baseball, including two of the top candidates to win the National League Cy Young Award.

We also have the Mets and Tigers in interleague play, and the Bronx Bombers battling the Birds of Baltimore. How's that for alliteration?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of Toronto Blue Jays (GETTY IMAGES)

As my first MLB betting article of the week, let's review my record for the 2026 season: +315 on my Best Bets picks. I'm 0-for-1 in parlays. I'm not making a parlay selection today. Look for that next week.

Odds in this baseball betting preview for May 12 are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

MLB Best Bets: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ Total Bases Player Prop for May 12

A wise rule in gambling is to avoid chasing the reversal of fortune. For example, if an established pitcher is having a run of bad performances, be wary of betting large on him having a big strikeout game next time he's on the mound.

However, trends, while not predictive, are important to track. A player having "poor luck" can be due to out up the numbers you need for your winning baseball bet.

Enter Vladimir Guerrero's kid: Vlad Jr. He's swinging a piece of lumber up in Ontario. So far this season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded lower-than-usual power numbers: his Barrel Percentage is 9.4, down from an average of 13.0 the previous two seasons; his Exit Velocity is 90.4 MPH, the lowest since his rookie season, and about 3 MPH below his last three seasons.

But, Guerrero Jr. is still making contact well enough to have an xSLG (Expected Slugging Percentage) of .517. He'a also, like many Latin players, a slow starter in the cool spring months. For his career, Guerrero Jr. has a .516 SLG after May 15, and .455 before that date.

Guerrero Jr. has just two home runs. But, I'm not taking a flyer on a four-bagger tonight when the Jays host the Rays. I'm going for total bases. Playing in the controlled environment under the dome in Toronto, I'm taking Vlad to have more than one total base. My wager will be a half-unit ($50 for my budget):

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Record 2+ Total Bases: +102

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West Coast Tuesday MLB Pick:

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto To Record 7+ Strikeouts: +117

So far in 2026, I have been successful in 80 percent of my Pitcher Prop Bets on Strikeout Totals. I like this market because it's one of the core consistent rates we see from players. Even with the ABS system lowering overall K numbers, aligning with pitcher K rates per start can be an interesting and profitable way to bet on baseball.

Yamamoto will be facing the San Francisco Giants for the second time. In April he fanned seven Giants in a loss on the road.

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Home Run Bet: Here Comes The Judge

The Yankees are in Baltimore to face the Orioles at Camden Yards. They have Aaron Judge in tow, and the Big Fella is raking in May to the tune of a 308/460/667 slash line.

Injuries have decimated the Baltimore pitching staff. No fewer than eight O's hurlers are on the IL. As of publication of this article Tuesday morning, Baltimore skipper Craig Albernaz has not named a starter. Tuesday's game could be a bullpen mashup against the Yankees.

That's why I like Judge to jump on a fastball or some other pitch to his liking and hit his third HR against the Orioles this season. Odds are from DraftKings:

• Aaron Judge To Hit a Home Run: +272

A $100 winning wager will return $272, plus your stake will be placed back into your account.

YRFI: Paul Skenes vs. Rockies in Pittsburgh

In three of his eight starts, Paul Skenes has surrendered at least one run in the first inning. After his first start, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner had an ERA that seemed more like a tech stock price 67.50.

Since being rocked off the mound on opening day, Skenes has lowered his ERA to 2.36, and has a 5-2 record. His raw stats, according to Statcast, rank in the 97th percentile in xwOBA. But, here's the stingy fact so far in 2026: Skenes is only in the 81st percentile in Hard Hit Percentage (32.0%). That's actually down from his rate of 2026, when opponents recorded a 40.1% Hard Hit Pct. But the drop is likely due to the impact of the ABS system. The new ABS system is benefitting hitters: strikeouts are down, and batting average on balls in play is up.

The Colorado Rockies will have the top of their order in place to face Skenes: Hunter Goodman, Tyler Freeman, TJ Rumfield, possibly Swingin' Willi Castro. The Rockies aren't just run producers in the thin air of Denver: the team has 21 HR in 22 road games, compared to 20 in 19 in Colorado. The Rockies can mash anywhere, thank you very much.

Michael Lorenzen will start for Colorado. He's been like a batting practice machine: allowing 15 hits, 11 earned runs, and three HR in his last two starts in 10 1/3 innings.

• Rockies vs. Pirates, YRFI: +100