MLB Best Bets (May 6): Dodgers vs. Astros Predictions, NRFI Pick & Home Run Targets

I’ve always liked Wednesday MLB slates, as you often get day baseball, rubber matches, and teams showing their hand in terms of bullpen usage. Wednesday's slate is no different, highlighted by a rematch of the 2017 World Series.

{Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Fast forward almost a decade, and both teams are in very different places. The Dodgers have won back-to-back and sustained their success. The Astros, meanwhile, are seeing their glory years come to an end after missing the playoffs last year and struggling out of the gate with bad pitching.

With that in mind, here are our MLB best bets, NRFI picks, and home run favorites for the Wednesday slate of games on May 6.

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MLB Best Bets: Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros Odds and Predictions (May 6) (FanDuel)

• Moneyline: Dodgers: -215 | Astros: +190
• Spread: Dodgers: -1.5 | Astros: +1.5
• Total: Over 8.5 | Under: 8.5

Following a shocking upset on Tuesday night, expect the defending champions to bounce back and win the series as All-Star Tyler Glasnow (3-0, 2.56 ERA) takes the ball against a top-heavy Astros' lineup on Wednesday afternoon.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Pitching Edge Favors Dodgers in Rubber Match

While the Dodgers trot out Glasnow and a solid bullpen behind him, the Astros will send out struggling Lance McCullers Jr. (6.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) and a league-worst bullpen against LA's star-studded lineup. The odds clearly reflect this significant pitching mismatch, and I'm buying it.

At the time I'm writing this, the lineups have not been released yet, so I'm unaware if Shohei Ohtani (.814 OPS, 6 HRs) or Hyeseong Kim (.308 AVG, .770 OPS) are back in the lineup after being absent on Tuesday.

Both of those players will continue to be key for the Dodgers' lineup for years to come, with Kim being a bit more underrated. Assuming both are back in the lineup, that should make all the difference in the rubber match.

On top of the pitching mismatch, news broke late on Tuesday night that star shortstop Carlos Correa might have suffered a serious ankle injury. Correa (.279 AVG, .787 OPS) has hit well in the lead-off spot and been a big reason why the Astros have won any games this year despite their struggling pitching staff.

Why pairing LA with an early under makes sense

This is a hedge, in a way, as the only potential path to the Dodgers getting upset again is if their lineup continues not to hit, as was the case on Tuesday. Over the past 15 days, the Dodgers rank No. 27 overall in offense, with a glaring .647 team OPS.

One of the more underrated tools in betting MLB totals is knowing the tendencies of the umpire calling balls and strikes. It’s not the most important aspect when picking totals, but it’s often the proverbial nail in the coffin to me. Baseball is a weird game, and one strike called a ball could all of a sudden lead to a rally, and vice versa.

For this matchup, I don’t necessarily trust McCullers Jr., but I do trust home plate umpire Emil Jimenez to make life a bit easier for him. According to EV Analytics, Jimenez ranks as a top 10 pitcher-friendly umpire in the league, allowing a 3.99 ERA while allowing a .695 OPS when he’s behind the plate.

The total game under at nine does intrigue me, especially with Jimenez calling balls and strikes. However, I just can't trust Houston's bullpen enough to get there.

• My Pick: Dodgers -1 (-182 via DraftKings), First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

If you keep reading throughout this MLB season, I will continually advocate for betting favorites at alternate -1 lines to get better odds instead of an expensive money line. In this case, we’re turning -220 ML odds into -182 with essentially no risk aside from pushing.

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MLB Best Bets: NRFI Pick Of The Day

• My Pick: Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Under 0.5 1st Inning (-130 via FanDuel)

If we can get through the opening half of the first inning, the bottom half should feel like a lock when defending Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes (3.18 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) takes the hill.

The Diamondbacks top of the order is legit, with Geraldo Perdomo (.245 AVG, .760 OPS), Ketel Marte (.221 AVG, .651 OPS), and Corbin Carroll (.265 AVG, .870 OPS) constantly carrying the load offensively over the past few seasons. However, all three have underperformed through the first month of the year, and Skenes has good numbers against Perdomo (0-7) and Marte (0-5).

But as I said, it's going to be the first three outs we'll need to worry most about here. However, I do see some angles to back Diamondbacks starting pitcher Michael Soroka (4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP).

Soroka looked to be in the early makings of a bounce-back year before his most recent game at Milwaukee, where he allowed eight earned runs in just three innings. That appearance and another at Philadelphia have been his only bad games so far this year. And notably, both were his only road games this year so far.

All four of his other outings were in Arizona, where he was nothing short of — allowing just four earned runs against solid lineups like the Braves, Blue Jays, and Tigers.

MLB Best Bets: Home Run Picks Of The Day

• My Pick: Jackson Chourio HR (+630 via FanDuel)

After getting injured during the WBC and being placed on the IL right before opening day, Brewers star outfielder Jackson Chourio (.270 AVG, 21 HRs in 2025) showed up ready to hit in his season debut on Monday night. The 22-year-old outfielder went a perfect 4-for-4 with a walk and two ringing doubles.

As the game was postponed on Tuesday night, it's unclear who will get the ball for St. Louis as I'm writing this. However, it looks to be between either Mathew Liberatore (4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) or Andre Pallante (3.73 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).

I was hesitant to write about anything in this game because of the unknown. However, that was until I realized that Chourio has great career numbers against both guys — going 3-for-5 with 5 walks against Pallante and 2-for-6 with a walk against Liberatore.

With odds over +600 due to the unknown of who's pitching, get ahead of the game and grab this number while you can.