MLB Best Bets: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays Odds, NRFI Pick & Home Run Predictions (June 12)

We’ve got a 13-game slate for Friday’s MLB action, and there are plenty of interesting spots across the board as teams settle deeper into the summer portion of the schedule.

Friday’s card features everything from divisional rivalries to a few strong pitching matchups and some offenses in favorable spots heading into the weekend. Among one of the better matchups, the Yankees and Blue Jays renew their AL East rivalry in Toronto, while the Braves and Mets square off in what could turn into one of the best pitching duels of the night.

(GETTY IMAGES)

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

View a list of the best sports betting offers here for more MLB and sports betting promotions.

MLB Best Bets: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays Odds and Prediction (June 12)

The Yankees are in a favorable matchup Friday against a Toronto team that has struggled heavily against left-handed pitching this season, entering the game with the fourth-worst OPS in baseball versus lefties.

That becomes even more important with Ryan Weathers (2-4, 3.86 ERA) taking the mound for New York. While Toronto is expected to get Alejandro Kirk back in the lineup, the Blue Jays may still be without Daulton Varsho, one of the few left-handed hitters in the lineup that consistently handles southpaws well.

On the other side, Toronto starter Trey Yesavage (2-3, 3.16 ERA) enters this matchup in shaky form. Over his last three starts, Yesavage has issued 11 walks across 17 1/3 innings while recording only 15 strikeouts, continuing a recent stretch of command issues.

The splits at home are also concerning. Yesavage owns a 4.57 ERA at home this season compared to a much stronger 1.71 ERA on the road, while opponents have produced a significantly higher .304 weighted on-base average against him in Toronto.

The matchup becomes even tougher against a Yankees lineup that ranks fifth in baseball against right-handed pitching and can stack as many as seven left-handed hitters throughout the order. Yesavage has also shown weaker underlying metrics against lefties this season, posting a lower strikeout-to-walk profile and higher expected fielding independent pitching against left-handed bats.

• My Best Bet: Yankees ML (-104 via FanDuel), Over 8 (-106 via FanDuel)

Even without Aaron Judge (.907 OPS, 17 HRs), New York still profiles as the more dangerous offense in this matchup. With Toronto struggling against left-handed pitching and Yesavage entering in poor recent form, the Yankees moneyline and total over both stand out as strong plays on Friday night.

Best Brand

BetMGM Promo

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Get bonus now

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Best Bonus

FanDuel Promo

New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days

Get bonus now

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelplineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, IA, KY, WV) only. New users only or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Casino, First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Min $5 wager required for 5 consecutive days. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Bet Reset tokens. Refund from token issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bet that expire 7 days after receipt. Max refund $200 per day. Restrictions apply, including token expiration. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook. Call 1-877-770-7867 (LA).

Newcomer

Caesars Promo

Bet $1 and get double the winnings up to $25 for your next 10 bets

-

21+ New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. First bet after registration must qualify. Max. Bonus Bet: $1,000. Bonus Bet expires 14 days after receipt. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)

MLB Best Bets: NRFI, Total Pick for June 12

• My Pick: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Under 0.5 1st inning (-115 via FanDuel), Under 8 total (-105 via FanDuel)

This sets up as an NRFI and under play built around strong pitching and two offenses in different spots right now.

Spencer Strider (4-1, 4.00 ERA) is back and healthy. But most importantly for Friday's matchup, he has owned this Mets lineup in his young career.

In 52 career at-bats against Strider, New York is hitting just .173 with a .591 OPS, and key bats like Juan Soto (3-for-13), Marcus Semien (0-for-5), and Bo Bichette (1-for-6) having all struggled in the matchup.

Strider has also been strong early this season, allowing just a .182 average and .649 OPS the first time through the order, which is a key number to look at for the NRFI angle.

On the 0ther side, Nolan McLean (3-4, 3.98 ERA) has been steady early as well in his rookie campaign, allowing just a .152 average and .527 OPS the first time through the order, helping keep Atlanta in position early despite a tough overall matchup.

The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball overall, ranking near the top of the league in most key categories. But this might be the best window to fade this offense all year, as they are missing key bats in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Drake Baldwin.

The Mets, meanwhile, have been inconsistent offensively all season and just downright bad against right-handed pitching - sitting at just a .658 OPS against righties (29th in MLB).

Bullpens also support the under. Atlanta owns the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.25, while the Mets sit at a solid 3.67 bullpen ERA, giving both sides the ability to limit late scoring if needed.

With strong first-time-through numbers from both starters, Strider’s dominance vs. the Mets, and two offenses that are either depleted or inconsistent, this projects as a low-scoring game from start to finish, making both the NRFI and full-game under live.

MLB Best Bets: Thursday Home Run Prediction

• My Pick: Jake Bauers HR (+420 via FanDuel)

Jake Bauers enters Friday swinging one of the hotter bats in Milwaukee's lineup, already homering twice over his last five games and now drawing a favorable matchup against Phillies rookie Andrew Painter.

Painter has struggled badly against left-handed hitters recently. Across his last 70 lefties faced, he has allowed a .407 wOBA and .238 ISO while striking out just 14.3% of left-handed batters over the last month. He’s also giving up plenty of elevated contact, allowing a 35.2% fly-ball rate and over 40% hard contact to lefties.

That lines up well for Bauers, who has crushed right-handed pitching lately. Over his last 74 plate appearances against righties, Bauers owns a .317 ISO and .432 wOBA while producing elite quality of contact numbers, including a 79.5% hard-hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate.

With Painter struggling to miss bats against lefties and Bauers consistently driving the baseball in the air, this profiles as a strong home run spot Friday night.