MLB Opening Day Best Bets: Totals, Spreads, NRFI & Home Run Picks (Mar. 26)

Coming off a Yankees blowout on MLB Opening Night in San Francisco, the rest of the league is back in full swing with a fun slate throughout the day on Thursday. And while it’s admittedly harder to handicap early MLB season games because of the small sample size of stats, I do see value in several matchups.

(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

Early in the year, pitchers often ramp up faster than hitters regain timing, which makes unders and first-five plays particularly appealing in the first month of baseball. By focusing on these controllable factors, it’s possible to find solid edges even with a small sample size.

With that in mind, here are our best bets, NRFI picks, and home run favorites for MLB Opening Day.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

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2026 MLB Opening Best Bets & Odds for Thursday, March 26

Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres

This matchup is one of the most anticipated of the day, featuring two teams coming off heartbreaking playoff losses. Despite the presence of elite hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, I expect runs to be hard to come by in this one.

Trust the Starting Pitching on Both Sides

I couldn't find the numbers on how often the under hits, but it should go without saying that it’s generally a good idea to expect a low-scoring affair when Tarik Skubal is on the hill.

Going into a contract year, Skubal is entering the biggest season of his elite career and is attempting to become the first pitcher to win three straight Cy Young awards since Randy Johnson’s four-year dynasty of the prestigious award from 1999-2002.

Meanwhile, Nick Pivetta is getting his first opening day start following a career-best 2025 season, going 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA. At home, he was nearly unhittable, posting an 8-1 record with a 2.36 ERA and 113 strikeouts.

Specifically looking at Pivetta’s career numbers against the Tigers lineup, there’s even more reason to expect a quality start,  as Riley Greene is 1-for-8 against him, Spencer Torkelson is 2-for-8, and Gleyber Torres is 4-for-19.

San Diego’s Bullpen Advantage Puts Less Pressure on Pivetta

While Pivetta is certainly a drop-off from Skubal, San Diego has a significant bullpen advantage over Detroit.

The Padres had the best bullpen in baseball last year by a wide margin in most metrics, posting a collective 3.06 ERA, nearly half a run better than the following team. They also led the league in bullpen WAR (7.6, compared to the next best team at 6.8, even though they were in the middle third of the league in relief innings pitched.

This is all to say that if Pivetta struggles on Thursday, the dominance from relievers behind him (Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada) can still give the under a chance to cash.

Ballpark and Conditions Favor the Under

Another factor driving this total down is Petco Park’s tendency to produce low-scoring games.

Despite favorable hitting weather year-round in San Diego, the conditions favor pitchers largely due to its sea-level elevation, which limits ball flight, along with deep power alleys and a spacious outfield. According to Baseball Savant’s ballpark factor, Petco Park ranks as the second-worst stadium for offense over the past three seasons.

• Tigers vs. Padres Pick & Prediction: Under 7 (-110 DraftKings)

I know, it’s no fun given how good both teams are, but I will always look to find value in low-scoring games during the first month of the season.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

I believe Houston is the safest favorite on the slate today for many reasons.

Coming off an 87-75 season that fell just short of the postseason, the Astros will look to bounce back to their old ways behind elite pitching with a veteran lineup, while the Angels enter the season embracing a full rebuild and youth movement.

Trust Hunter Brown

After being hyped up for years as a breakout candidate, Hunter Brown finally broke through in 2025 - establishing himself as an elite MLB starting pitcher with a 2.43 ERA and over 200 strikeouts in 31 starts while finishing as a Cy Young finalist.

While this bet is more about backing Brown to have a good game, I still trust the Astros enough offensively to provide him some run support.

Houston’s Lineup Can Be Dangerous If Healthy

Despite losing some of their best positional players over the years, Houston’s lineup can still produce, and with some better injury luck this year, it has the potential to hit at an elite level as we’ve seen in seasons past.

By “injury luck,” it mainly just comes down to Yordan Alvarez staying on the field. Even with injuries limiting him to just 48 games last season, Alvarez hit .273 with a .797 OPS and has done enough to establish himself as one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball when healthy.

Jeremy Pena took a big step forward as well, hitting .304 with an .840 OPS, giving Houston another high-contact bat that can create traffic on the bases. And although he’s older, Jose Altuve is still getting the job done as a leadoff guy, hitting .265 with 26 home runs and 77 RBIs in 2025- showing he can still be a consistent table-setter with pop.

In contrast, Los Angeles traded one of their top power bats, Taylor Ward, over the offseason-  a move that weakened what was already an anemic offense in 2025, ranking dead last in the MLB with a .225 team average and 23rd-ranked .695 team OPS.

Outside of Jo Adell and Zach Neto, I just don’t see where the run production is going to come from.

Mike Trout is still a household name in the MLB, but it's clear that the two-time MVP has been on the decline recently. At 34 years old, Trout is coming off two slumping years, hitting .232 in 2025 and .220 in 2024.

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Reasons to back the First Five Under

I feel like bettors often overlook first five wagers, but they can be a more controllable option when targeting game totals, since you’re focused strictly on starting pitching and don’t have to account for whatever arms a manager might deploy out of the bullpen.

This is a game where I’ll look to do just that, as I trust Brown for the reasons mentioned above and also have confidence in Jose Soriano.

It’s rare to see a starting pitcher who plays legitimately better on the road, but Soriano fits that unique profile. Last year, he went 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA away from home despite a 4.26 ERA overall. The trend holds over multiple seasons: in 2023, he went 4-3 with a 2.74 ERA on the road, compared with a 3.42 ERA overall.

So, while I trust Soriano, Brown, and most of Houston’s bullpen (Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, Bryan King), it’s hard to trust LA’s bullpen enough to bet the full game under.

The Angels’ bullpen finished third-to-last in collective bullpen ERA in 2025, posting a gross 4.86 ERA. And while I believe there’s certainly some promise on paper for the group headed into this year, it might not be proven until later in the season, as it’s looking like the Angels’ top two options (Robert Stevenson and Ben Joyce) will be injured for the first few months.

• Angels vs. Astros -1 (-135 DraftKings), Under 4 F5 (-110 FanDuel)

If you keep reading throughout this MLB season, I will continually advocate for betting favorites at alternate -1 lines to get better odds instead of an expensive money line. In this case, we’re turning -181 ML odds into -135 with essentially no risk aside from pushing. A $100 bettor would be getting an extra $20 if they went this route.

MLB NRFI Pick Of The Day

• Angels vs. Astros Under 0.5 1st Inning (-135 DraftKings)

I’m going to include this game in my NRFI pick for the above reasons that I like for the first five under. I simply trust both starters enough to get six scoreless outs to open the game.

MLB Home Run Pick Of The Day

•  Ketel Marte (+430 FanDuel)

While most of Arizona’s lineup has historically struggled against Tyler Glasnow, Ketel Marte is the one exception- going 5-for-15 against him with three walks, a home run, and a double.

With this game carrying the highest total on the slate, Marte should maximize his at-bats, hitting at the top of the lineup as the road team to go yard.