MLB Best Bets (June 11): Dodgers vs. Pirates, Shohei Ohtani Props & Predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers are heading in the proper direction for a threepeat. The two-time defending champs have a 7.5-game lead in the National League West. It's been more than a month since they lost a series. Even squandering a lead and suffering a loss on Wednesday can't take the shine off their season.

(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

My baseball betting picks for Thursday are from four games, including division leaders and teams hoping to get hot heading toward the All-Star break.

Your favorite baseball betting apps offer odds on game props, player props, futures bets, and chances to build a parlay. In this betting article, I'm making one game prop bet, and the rest of my budget is assigned to player props, including picks for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, June 11

We have a handful of "getaway games" on the schedule today, including a few daytime affairs with interesting matchups. My bets are from four MLB games (June 11).

Key Games Today

• Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, 1:10 PM ET
• Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies, 3:10 PM ET
• St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, 6:40 PM ET
• Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles, 7:05 PM ET, on ESPN

Seeking out other MLB and sports betting promotions? Ballislife Bets has compiled a list of the best sports betting offers here.

Home Run Pick: Juan Soto +375

After the Mets limped into the season, struggling to win games, the team went 16-12 in May. The success last month was helped by the hot bat of superstar Juan Soto.

In May, Juan Soto had 10 home runs, 21 RBI, a .615 SLG, and .984 OPS. But as if controlled by calendar forces, Soto has fallen back to a .100 AVG, zero HR, and one measly RBI. Soto is finding a bit of bad luck. He ranks fourth in MLB in xSLG (Expected SLG) and second in Blast % Per Swing. These stats come from Statcast and MLB data analytics. With Blast %, we're measuring how often a batter squares up a pitch AND hits it with high bat speed. In 2026, Soto has recorded a Blast in 19% of his swings.

On Thursday, Soto and the Mets will face Cardinals starter Hunter Dobbins, making his second start of the season for St. Louis. Dobbins has taken some time to drift up to the MLB level: he's 26 and only has 12 starts, most with Boston last season. He will be facing Soto for the second time: the Mets slugger is 0-for-2 in their matchups.

• Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run (+375, Bet365)

A winning $100 wager will be worth $375.

Best Brand

BetMGM Promo

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Get bonus now

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.

Best Bonus

FanDuel Promo

New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days

Get bonus now

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelplineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, IA, KY, WV) only. New users only or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Casino, First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Min $5 wager required for 5 consecutive days. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable Bet Reset tokens. Refund from token issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bet that expire 7 days after receipt. Max refund $200 per day. Restrictions apply, including token expiration. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook. Call 1-877-770-7867 (LA).

Newcomer

Caesars Promo

Bet $1 and get double the winnings up to $25 for your next 10 bets

-

21+ New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. First bet after registration must qualify. Max. Bonus Bet: $1,000. Bonus Bet expires 14 days after receipt. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)

Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: Total Runs Over 12.5

It's not shocking when home runs fly out of the playing field in Denver. But lately we've seen a sharp increase. Why? One reason is the Rockies' poor pitching staff (MLB's worst, 5.56 overall and 5.01 on the road). Another reason is the warm weather we're seeing across the U.S. in recent weeks. In the thin (recently also warm) air of Denver, there have been 21 HR in the last eight games played at Coors Field.

In seven of the last eight games played at Coors Field, there have been at least two home runs. This afternoon, the Cubs will face the Rockies in the finale of a three-game series. I suspect runs will pile up on the scoreboard, given the fact that we've seen more high-scoring games at that ballpark than anywhere else. Coors Field has been the site of 21 games with at least 10 runs (out of 33). I'm tilting even higher than that: 12.5 runs on the over.

• OVER 12.5 Runs (+136, FanDuel)

Moneyline: Dodgers -160 at Pirates, Ohtani to Homer

It's a good thing Justin Wrobleski pitches his home games near Hollywood. He is in need of a publicist. In 2026, the Dodger left-hander has been one of the stingiest pitchers in the National League. Wrobleski has allowed only 14 walks and has a 2.72 ERA in 10 starts. He's produced seven quality starts.

Being a pitching star on the Dodgers is sort of like being Ringo Starr. You have some friends who get the bulk of the attention, and for good reason. Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are going to (rightfully) be on the NL All-Star team. But Wrobleski has allowed only four home runs in 68 2/3 innings, and he's among the top 5% in MLB in percentage of plate appearances resulting in poor contact, per Statcast.

• Los Angeles Dodgers -160 at Pittsburgh Pirates (Bet365 Sportsbook)

I like the Dodgers lineup against Pittsburgh starting pitcher Mitch Keller, despite a small sample size: Ohtani has two HR vs Keller in 11 PA; Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker have also all gone deep on Keller.

Odds for Ohtani to hit a HR (via Bet365) are +235. For Tucker, it's +550. I'll go with the former, with half a unit ($50).

• Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run, +235 (Caesars)

Player Props for Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles National TV Game

Here's my first MLB parlay of June, and to make it more entertaining, I'm placing it on the national TV game on ESPN. It's the "Battle of the Letters," the "M's vs the O's" in Baltimore.

This three-leg parlay has odds of +550 from DraftKings

• 1+ Luke Raley Hits
• 2+ Adley Rutschman Hits + Runs + RBIs
• 2+ Randy Arozarena Total Bases

Here's what you need to know about these players for Thursday's matchups:

• Raley is 4-for-9 with a HR vs Baltimore starter Kyle Bradish
• Adley Rutschman has a HR in three trips to the plate vs Seattle starter Bryan Woo
• Randy Arozarena has 2 HR lifetime off Bradish, and he's been hot of late, with hits in 5 of his last 6 games, including three multi-hit games.

If you win all three legs of the baseball parlay bet, you will earn $550 in winnings.