MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, Moneyline, NRFI Picks (Mar. 27)

The first weekend of the Major League Baseball season is here. Even if it doesn't feel like spring everywhere in the U.S. and Canada yet, fans are getting what they've missed since October.

(Photo by Justine Willard/Athletics/Getty Images)

With baseball back, that also means new chances to find betting odds that fit your goals. I'm picking two games that will include an NRFI and Home Run Hitter prop bet.

Odds in this betting preview are from FanDuel. If you haven't downloaded your favorite betting app for baseball yet, use our list of the best sports betting offers to find potential bonuses.

2026 MLB Opening Best Bets & Odds for Friday, March 27

Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays

The pitching matchup is Luis Severino (OAK) and Kevin Gausman (TOR) in the opener for both teams. Neither of these hurlers will be on the mound for very long, likely four innings, depending on pitch count.

My pick for this game is based on my impression of Severino from the World Baseball Classic and my appreciation for the Athletics lineup.

Severino looked very sharp in his two starts for the Dominican Republic: his slider was biting, and he posted an 11/0 K/BB ratio. He flummoxed U.S. batters in his start against Team USA. I suspect the veteran feels good this spring and is set to have a good start to the regular season.

Let's talk about the Athletics lineup. According to FanGraphs projections, only four MLB teams have seven batters projected to have 2+ WAR: the Dodgers, Mets, Padres, and drumroll...Athletics. That team is currently without a home fan base.

Nick Kurtz could hit 45 home runs, and Brent Rooker is the least-known power hitter in baseball. I love the swing of Jacob Wilson, who was an All-Star as a rookie in 2025. Wilson is the type of hitter who could win a batting title, and his power is only going to improve. Then there's Shea Langeliers, the "other" catcher who hit 30+ HR in the American League in 2025.

Athletics vs. Blue Jays Best Bet & Prediction

I like the chances that the A's big swingers perform well indoors at Rogers Centre, one of the best venues for smashing home runs. That's why I'm going with the Athletics to knock off the defending AL champs in Game No. 1 of the season.

• Athletics Moneyline (+138 FanDuel)

Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners

If you have a good idea how a team is going to use their pitching staff, it's a good opportunity to lay down some money on the Innings market. In FanDuel, you'll find "segment" odds such as team leading after the 1st, after 3 innings, after 5 innings, and more.

When do we know best how a manager will use his staff? Early in the season, when he's going to manage the pitches and shoulder stress. Cleveland skipper Stephen Vogt will wave his arm and take the walk to the mound many times, and that means his starter, Gavin Williams, will be able to elevate his velocity for a 3-4 inning outing.

Guardians vs. Mariners Best Bet & Prediction

I love the top of the order for both the Guardians and the Mariners, but give me all the José Ramírez you've got. He's the X-factor, along with Williams, for my bet on CLE winning the first four innings. A $100 wager would pay $205. A great way to start the season.

• Cleveland To Lead After 4th Inning (+205 FanDuel)

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MLB NRFI Pick Of The Day

• Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Under 0.5 1st Inning (-113 FanDuel)

One of the reasons NRFI is such an intriguing betting market is that it feels like a no-brainer: games start scoreless, and we think they will after a single inning.

But actually, more runs are scored in the first inning than in any other inning. It works out to about 30 percent of first innings that see at least one run scored, which is what we're more concerned with in NRFI than HOW MANY runs are scored.

Why are runs more likely to be scored in the first inning? Because that's the only inning the team at bat has its offense set the way it wants it. The leadoff batter, the No. 3 hitter, and the cleanup hitter are all set in place the way the manager wants. The best hitters are in the top four spots in the order.

In each of the last three seasons, the Diamondbacks have been in the top six in MLB in most NRFI. In 2024, they ranked first in MLB for most NRFI, and last season, they were second, first in the NL.

The Diamondbacks have Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll at the top of the order, and they should be hitters who can get a run-scoring rally going. However, maybe it's the other way around. Maybe the Diamondbacks are terrible at scoring first-inning runs because their top-of-the-order hitters are not good matchups against elite pitching staffs in their own division, the teams they play most often. And that is the case. At least for Arizona vs. the Dodgers.

Tonight, Arizona is facing off against the Dodgers, a great team that has helped keep the Diamondbacks from scoring much in the first (only four times last season in 18 meetings). Ryne Nelson will be on the hill for Arizona (2.07 ERA in 35 innings vs LAD, with just 1 HR allowed), and I like his chances to get out of the first inning with a zero. Once again on Opening Day, the Dodgers held ARI scoreless in the first inning.

NRFI Best Bet & Prediction

• Based on that data, I like going with ARI vs LAD for my NRFI pick.

MLB Home Run Pick Of The Day

• Brent Rooker (+320 FanDuel)

Home Run Best Bet & Prediction

Last season, Rooker batted .480 with five extra-base hits, including two HR against the Blue Jays, the team he and the A's will face on Friday evening. He's hit 99 home runs in the last three seasons. Only nine players hit more from 2023 to 2025.