MLB Best Bets: Phillies at Dodgers Odds & Predictions, NRFI Pick & Home Run Targets (May 29)

Despite a relatively average slate of matchups Friday, the late game on Apple TV will feature an NLDS rematch between the Dodgers and Phillies that’s sure to draw plenty of eyes across the country.

The Dodgers won that series 3-1 last October — and fans probably don’t need any reminders about what happened after that.

{Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

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You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

MLB Best Bets: Phillies at Dodgers Odds and Prediction (May 29)

It’s almost June, and the Philadelphia Phillies appear to finally be back on track at 29-27. That’s probably not where this team expected to be entering the season, but after a brutal 9-19 start under former manager Rob Thomson, Philadelphia has surged to a 20-8 record since Don Mattingly took over on an interim basis.

Meanwhile on the west coast, there’s been very little drama relative to Philadelphia and it’s been business as usual for the defending champions. At 36-20, the Los Angeles Dodgers own the second-best record in baseball and come into Friday night swinging one of the hottest lineups in the league.

Still, this matchup feels much more pitcher-driven than the star power in both lineups might suggest.

Zach Wheeler needs no introduction

Zach Wheeler has once again looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, entering Friday with a 2.71 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and over 11 strikeouts per nine innings through his first 11 starts. Even more impressive, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of those outings while continuing to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis.

And while the Dodgers lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani (.269 AVG, .882 OPS) Freddie Freeman (.271 AVG, .830 OPS)and Andy Pages (.899 OPS, 13 HRs) is capable of exploding at any moment, Wheeler is one of the few starters in baseball with the command and swing-and-miss stuff to consistently limit damage against elite bats.

Phillies lineup has not looked the same vs. lefties

On the other side, Justin Wrobleski (3.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) is the wild card between these two starters. He’s not exactly a household name yet, but the 25-year-old lefty is quietly putting together a breakout campaign in his third MLB season.

After struggling in a starting role as a rookie in 2024 (5.70 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), the Dodgers shifted him into the bullpen in 2025 where he showed flashes. This season, Los Angeles gave him another opportunity in the rotation — and so far, he’s absolutely run with it.

He’s coming off arguably his two worst outings of the year, allowing five earned runs against Milwaukee and seven against Atlanta. Still, outside of those starts, it’s mostly been smooth sailing for Wrobleski.

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I’m willing to chalk those outings up more to difficult matchups than a sign of regression. Atlanta arguably has the best lineup in baseball, while Milwaukee has been red-hot since getting Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio fully rolling again this month.

Yes, he’ll now have to face Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper — a difficult task for any pitcher — but this Phillies lineup simply hasn’t looked like the same group against left-handed pitching this season.

Last year, Philadelphia posted an impressive .747 team OPS against lefties while hitting the second-most home runs in baseball in those matchups with 69.

This season has been a completely different story. And at this point, we can’t really call it a small sample size anymore. In 2026, the Phillies own just a .673 OPS against left-handed pitching.

The bullpen, weather should help keep this one low-scoring

With a strong case to be made for both starters, I also trust each bullpen — along with the weather — to help keep runs at a premium.

Despite losing closer Edwin Diaz, Los Angeles still owns the best bullpen ERA in baseball by a wide margin at 2.63. The next closest team sits over four-tenths of a run higher at 3.09.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia enters with a much less impressive 3.82 bullpen ERA. That said, the unit has quietly started trending in the right direction.

While the raw ERA numbers sit around league average, several advanced metrics suggest the Phillies bullpen has actually dealt with some poor luck. The group ranks in the top half of baseball in strikeout rate while also posting the best walk rate in the majors.

The return of star closer Jhoan Duran (1.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) from the injured list has also given the back end of the bullpen legitimate shutdown potential again.

The weather should help us too, with temperatures expected to sit in the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the night and very little wind projected at Dodger Stadium.

• My Pick: Under 8.5 (-124 via FanDuel)

Despite the amount of star power and future Hall of Famers expected in this marquee matchup, trust the elite pitching to take over on a chilly night in Los Angeles.

A $100 bettor would profit $80 if this wager cashes.

MLB Best Bets: NRFI Pick for May 29

• My Pick: Marlins at Mets Under 0.5 1st Inning (-128 via FanDuel)

Friday’s matchup features two starters that have been excellent for most of the season in Max Meyer and Freddy Peralta.

Meyer enters with a 2.52 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 68 strikeouts through 60.2 innings, while Peralta owns a solid 3.52 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 61.1 innings.

The offenses also help this NRFI case quite a bit. The Mets rank near the bottom of baseball with just a .650 team OPS, while Miami has been much more average overall at .694.

With two quality arms on the mound and neither lineup exactly striking fear into pitchers right now, I’ll back a scoreless first inning here.

MLB Best Bets: Friday Home Run Pick

• My Pick: Aaron Judge HR (+230 via DraftKings)

Aaron Judge gets one of the strongest home run environments on Friday’s slate, with Sutter Health Park ranking as the second-best ballpark for home runs today according to Ballpark Pal.

With that, the pitching matchup also sets up well for the Yankees slugger against Luis Severino, who has struggled badly at home this season. Severino owns a 2.2 HR/9 at Sutter Health Park and has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts.

Judge has also seen Severino well throughout his career so far, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBIs against the right-hander.

With Judge continuing to grade out as one of the top power hitters in baseball and Severino’s home struggles becoming difficult to ignore, it's hard to predict anyone else to go yard on Friday night.