MLB Best Bets Today: Dodgers vs. Mets Odds, NRFI Pick & Home Run Predictions (July 25)

The MLB season is now into its second half, and the turn toward the playoffs is right around the corner. There is a full lineup of games Saturday with plenty of intriguing matchups to pay attention to when considering what to bet on today.

My ultimate goal is to use this platform to explain my thought process behind each pick so readers can apply the same logic to future games. Today's nationally televised matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets is a perfect example of that.

The game that matches up teams from both coasts will be my focus for the Saturday MLB Best Bets article. Let's jump right into what I'm thinking and looking at for today's game including a NRFI pick plus a home run prediction in Baltimore.

You can find all odds used in my MLB best bets predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

MLB Best Bets for July 25

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

• Moneyline: Los Angeles -154 | New York +130
• Run Line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+116) | New York +1.5 (-140)
• Total: 7.5 (-110/-110)

Odds via Fanduel

The first thing most people see is Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking the ball for the Dodgers against rookie Nolan McLean for the Mets. Two ace quality starters usually equals one thing in the betting market: everyone races to bet the full-game under.

I get it and agree to a certain extent — Yamamoto has been everything Los Angeles hoped he'd be, posting a 10-6 record with a sparkling 2.78 ERA while continuing to pitch like the ace of the best team in baseball this year. Meanwhile, McLean has quietly enjoyed an outstanding rookie campaign, going 7-6 with a 3.34 ERA despite pitching for a Mets team that has struggled to find consistency.

Both guys have swing-and-miss stuff, both limit hard contact, and both pound the strike zone. So, on paper — the under makes perfect sense.

However, I don't think the full-game under is the best way to attack this matchup.

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Look Beyond the Full Game

One of the biggest mistakes casual baseball bettors make is forgetting that sportsbooks allow their customers to bet almost every portion of a game. You don't have to handicap all nine innings.

You can isolate the first inning. The first three innings. The first five innings. Team totals. Alternate totals. Whatever you want, really!

So, with this matchup, instead of worrying about nine innings, I'm only concerned with the first three and I have numbers to back it up.

Yamamoto has allowed just a .518 OPS the first time through the batting order this season, while McLean has been slightly less effective at .540 OPS. Those are elite numbers and exactly the type of profile I want backing an early-game under.

Now, does that change for the rookie — considering he'll most likely have to see Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Andy Pages? In most cases, yes. However, McLean has already shown he can handle this matchup.

Earlier this season in Los Angeles, the Mets rookie held the defending champs to one earned run on two hits over seven innings while striking out eight. That's about as good of a road performance as you could ask for against this stacked roster.

Does that guarantee he'll dominate again? Of course not. But it reinforces the idea that his stuff plays well against this lineup, especially before hitters have a chance to see him multiple times on the day.

Eliminating Bullpen Variance

There's another reason I love the first three innings under: bullpens can be terrifying.

Every MLB bettor has experienced it. Or at least, I certainly have before learning my lesson. You handicap a game perfectly for six innings only to watch a reliever walk two batters, give up a three-run homer and ruin the pacing for an under in just a few minutes.

Bullpen usage changes daily. Arms get overworked. Managers certainly make questionable decisions. Maybe one reliever simply doesn't have his best stuff.

• My Saturday Best Bet: Dodgers-Mets F3 Under 2.5 (-145 via DraftKings)

The point being, it's more controllable to look at two starting pitchers instead of trying to predict how six or seven different pitchers might perform later in the game. So, by betting the first three innings, we can eliminate almost all of that uncertainty.

MLB Best Bets: Saturday NRFI Prediction

• My Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Under 0.5 1st inning (-156 via FanDuel)

When both starters excel immediately and one has already shut down this exact lineup, it's hard not to like the NRFI.

We're only asking for six scoreless outs, and the numbers suggest both Yamamoto and McLean are at their best before hitters get a second look. That's enough for me to back a scoreless first inning.

MLB Best Bets: Saturday Home Run Prediction

• My Pick: Drake Baldwin HR (+290 via FanDuel)

Drake Baldwin has been swinging a hot bat, hitting four home runs over his last seven games while posting a .429 ISO.

He draws a favorable matchup against Brandon Young, who has allowed plenty of elevated contact lately, and Baltimore's bullpen has given up 2.16 home runs per nine innings in recent weeks.