MLB Best Bets Today: Odds & Predictions For Monday (July 27)

An abbreviated MLB card for Monday, but plenty to delve into as the divisional races continue to heat up. We have the trade deadline looming, teams jockeying for position, and certain players auditioning for lucrative contracts if they're hoping to join playoff-contending teams.

As a part of tonight's full slate, I have a pair of run-line winners and two totals for my MLB Best Bets today.

(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

A quick glance over the standings after the weekend finds the American League East still in the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, who bring a three-game win streak into the week. They lead the New York Yankees by three games, but it's the hard-charging Boston Red Sox everyone should be wary of, as they continue their incredible tear since late June, having won 22 of 26.

The AL Central finds the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins muddled in a race, with only 3.5 games separating first and third place, respectively. But it's the Detroit Tigers who might be the most dangerous, with three quality starters in the rotation and a potent offense.

The Texas Rangers' recent run has seen them emerge as the AL West leaders, but the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros are in hot pursuit, with only two games separating first and third place, respectively.

Top National League Matchups Today

In the National League East, it seems like yesterday the Atlanta Braves were leading the pack by double digits. Now, they're ahead of the surging Philadelphia Phillies, who are just 5.5 games off the pace.

The Milwaukee Brewers are doing a good job in sustaining their control of the NL Central, while the Chicago Cubs have stayed relevant in the playoff picture by pacing the Wild Card race. And in the NL West, baseball's best team remains the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are ahead of the second-place Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 games.

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MLB Best Bets Today for July 27

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Let's take a look at Monday's Best Bets with odds via FanDuel:

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates

• Moneyline: Arizona +100 | Pittsburgh -118
• Run Line: Arizona -1.5 (+152) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-184)
• Total: 9.5 (+100/-122)

The Diamondbacks are sending Merrill Kelly to the bump at PNC Park, and that means the home team will have a chance to put its bats to work. Kelly, who is 8-8 with a rather high 5.12 ERA in 18 starts this season, has struggled away from Phoenix, going 4-5 with a 4.28 ERA in 10 road starts.

The Pirates give the nod to Mitch Keller, who is 6-7 with a 4.90 ERA in 20 starts. Over his last seven trips to the mound, he's just 1-4 with a 5.09 ERA. Even worse, in 11 home starts this season, he's just 4-5 with a whopping 5.68 ERA, as teams are coming into PNC and hitting .273 against him.

My Best Bet Prediction: Over 9.5 (+100)

• Kelly has allowed 10 home runs away from home, part of the 22 he's surrendered this season, which is tied for sixth most in the majors. Now he faces a team that just teed off at home against the Chicago Cubs during an 8-7 win, blasting three homers. Keller has been struggling terribly since mid-May, with a 6.46 ERA while allowing 11 home runs in 12 starts. This is high-scoring game waiting to happen.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

• Moneyline: Philadelphia -186 | Miami (+156)
• Run Line: Philadelphia -1.5 (-110) | Miami +1.5 (-111)
• Total: 7.5 (-115/-105)

The Phillies snapped their four-game skid with an 11-4 blowout of the Yankees in last night's primetime game, as Bryson Stott turned in a 5-RBI performance. I mention Stott, because he's been more of a Gold Glove second baseman of late, but then out of nowhere, he shows up with his bat on Sunday. That's what makes this lineup so dangerous, as it can get production from anywhere at any given time.

The Marlins have fallen off tremendously since going 26-8 from June 1 through July 9. Miami has lost 12 straight and seen its offense stall to the tune of a .208 batting average while scoring just 2.5 runs per game.

My Best Bet Prediction: Phillies Run Line -1.5 (-110)

• Philadelphia has won four of the six meetings this season, including the last two games the teams played in South Beach. And it's scary to think about Philadelphia's offense attacking a Miami pitching staff that has a 4.59 ERA during the team's 12-game skid. The Marlins have also been outscored by 2.4 runs per loss during the slide, and in facing Philadelphia's power-packed lineup, I'm convinced the Phillies win in blowout fashion for a second-straight night.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals

• Moneyline: Toronto +106 | Washington -124
• Run Line: Toronto -1.5 (+152) | Washington +1.5 (-184)
• Total: 10 (-104/-118)

The Toronto Blue Jays hoped veteran starter Max Scherzer could provide stability to their rotation, but the 42-year-old right-hander has done anything but. With six starts under his belt, he's just 1-4 with a 10.23 ERA. He'll celebrate his birthday by coming off the injured list to make his first start since June 10.

Rookie Eddy Yean is toeing the slab for the Nationals, and this is someone who has made only three appearances for Washington this season. Yean has tossed five innings of relief for the Nats, and though he's been impressive, this is a big ask, even if he's playing the role of opener. The 25-year-old just made his MLB debut on July 5, and could struggle in his first start.

My Best Bet Prediction: Over 10 runs (-104)

• The Blue Jays have lost seven of 10 since the All-Star break, and their pitching has done them no favors. The Jays have the league's ninth-highest ERA (4.40) over the last 15 days. This is a good spot for both offenses to erupt. Play the over.

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

• Moneyline: New York -146 | Chicago +124
• Run Line: New York -1.5 (+114) | Chicago +1.5 (-137)
• Total: 8.5 (-110/-110)

Despite last night's loss to the Phillies in primetime, the Yankees have still won nine of 13 thanks to their pitching staff that has produced a 3.31 ERA during the winning stretch. As a staff, over the 13-game span, the Yankees have an opponents' batting average of .217.

The AL Central-leading ChiSox might be 32-19 at home this season, but they just lost two of three in their stadium, losing the first two of a three-game set to the Houston Astros. I don't trust what the White Sox staff has done of late, turning in a 5.52 ERA over its last five games.

My Best Bet Prediction: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+114)

• The Yankees have owned this series since last season, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings, including five of the last six on the South Side. In those six games, the Yankees have outscored Chicago by a combined final of 42-14. Sounds more like the Giants beating the Bears at Soldier Field. Play the Pinstripes on the run line.

W.G. Ramirez is a veteran sports writer from Las Vegas and a Senior Staff Analyst at Ballislife Bets. Follow him on X at @WillieGRamirez.