MLB Best Bets Today: Tigers vs. Royals, Chris Sale & Junior Caminero Odds & Predictions (July 23)

I'm back with Best Bets picks for MLB, and to celebrate a return from focusing on soccer, I'm going to share a Same Game Parlay. It involves one of baseball's best pitchers.

The five MLB games today are San Diego at Atlanta, Minnesota at Cleveland, Tampa Bay at Toronto, Arizona at St. Louis, and Kansas City at Detroit.

(Photo by Mathew Tsang/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Odds in this MLB betting guide are from DraftKings and FanDuel.

Consult our MLB Betting Sites Reviews to locate ways to boost your wagering strategy for MLB.

MLB Best Bets: Chris Sale Strikeouts & Hits Allowed Parlay

The best afternoon game is taking place in Georgia where the first-place Atlanta Braves are hosting the San Diego Padres. The home team will have 2024 NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale on the bump. This is a matchup I've been keeping my eye on because the Padres lineup does not have success against Sale's ever-moving pitches.

According to MLB's Statcast, Sale ranks in the 96th percentile in Breaking Pitch Run Value. This will pose a problem for the impatient Padres lineup, which ranks 27th in MLB in on-base percentage and 24th in swings at pitches outside the strike zone.

In the last four seasons over five starts, Sale has 34 strikeouts against only 5 walks in 31 innings against the Padres. That's 6.8 K's and one walk per start, which is an indication of his dominance against San Diego.

My MLB Parlay Picks

• Chris Sale Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
• Chris Sale 7+ Strikeouts
• Odds are +164 from DraftKings

Kalshi: Pros and Cons

• CFTC-regulated
• Transparent pricing
• Low fees, no house edge
• Diverse event markets available

• Possible loss from volatility or market uncertainty

Visit Kalshi

Best Bet: Shane Bieber Earned Runs vs. Tampa Bay

The Rays and Jays are heading in opposite directions: first-place Tampa Bay has won three straight; and last-place Toronto has lost four straight. These AL East rivals are at the Rogers Centre for a matinee game.

Former AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber is making his second start since the All-Star break. Bieber's arm is being stretched: he's made only five starts since his season started on June 23 following an arm injury. So far the right-hander has two poor starts and three mediocre to good starts. He tossed six shutout innings against the White Sox five days ago.

It's not difficult to see why the Rays are on a winning streak: their lineup has smacked nine home runs in its last seven games, outscoring Toronto 23-5 in the first three games of this four-game series. That power could continue on Thursday when Bieber faces the hot Tampa Bay sluggers. The Toronto starter has allowed seven home runs in 23 1/3 innings in 2026. In his Toronto career he's surrendered a whopping 15 HR in 12 regular season starts. The once dominant four-seam fastball is not so fast.

Bieber's fastball is clocking at 92.2 MPH, which puts it in the bottom 16% of MLB pitchers. His average exit velocity is 91.7, which places him in the bottom 10% of baseball. I don't like the fact that Bieber is still working out the kinks after coming back from his arm injury AND he's allowing too many taters on his cheese pitches.

• Pitcher Prop: Shane Bieber Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-116 from DraftKings)

Junior Caminero Laser Prop Bet

For good measure, here's a batter prop from FanDuel, which is the only sportsbook where I find Exit Velocity odds regularly.

• Batter Prop: Junior Caminero To Hit a Laser (a ball 110+ MPH) ... +1200 from FanDuel

Junior Caminero has hit a baseball 116.9 MPH this season, the fourth highest in MLB. His average Exit Velo is 93 MPH, which ranks 9th. The average of his 50 hardest hit balls is 105.8 MPH, according to StatCast. That figure is the 4th-best in MLB. As stated before, Bieber is in the bottom 10% percent in Exit Velocity, and he's allowed a max exit velocity of over 116 MPH already in just five starts.

I'm going with a $20 wager on Caminero to smoke a pitch 110 MPH+, and if he does, I win $240.

MLB Best Bets: Tigers -1.5 +112 vs. Royals

Since June 29, the Detroit Tigers have baseball's second-best record (13-5). During that span the team has surrendered three or fewer runs in 13 of 18 games.

At home, the Tigers are +33 in run differential as opposed to -5 on the road. The Tigers are starting a seven-game homestand tonight that will basically decide whether they will be sellers at the trade deadline or stand pat and roll the rest of the season with ace Tarik Skubal to attempt to make the playoffs for a third straight season.

On Thursday I'm willing to give away the 1.5 runs and back the Tigers against the last-place Royals. Despite a three-game sweep of the Giants, the Royals are struggling to score runs this summer: only 3.4 per game in their last 11 games. Detroit is a decent home team (playing at a .540 clip at Comerica Park).

• Detroit Tigers +1.5 against Kansas City (+112 from FanDuel)