MLB Best Bets: Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies Game Picks & Player Props (May 18)

One thing for certain in Major League Baseball: if you don't like the standings, just wait a week or so, and they will change.

The situation has flipped for the Philadelphia Phillies, who are now one game over .500 and in second place in the National League East. This happened due to a torrid 15-4 stretch after the team fired its manager in April.

(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In the NL West, the San Diego Padres weathered a bumpy start and are now in a virtual tie with the hated Los Angeles Dodgers. Those two SoCal teams start a three-game series at Petco Park in sunny San Diego tonight.

Those two games plus the Yankees/Blue Jays tilt form my three-game baseball best bets picks for Monday. Odds are from DraftKings and FanDuel.

MLB Best Bets for May 18

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MLB Player Props: Phillies hosting Reds

Hello Donnie Baseball! Former All-Star Don Mattingly is doing something right in the manager's seat for Philly since taking over in late April. The Phillies are 15-4 under Mattingly, pushing their mark to 24-23. That's only four games out of a playoff spot (in the loss column).

Speaking of: the Phillies have gone from +200 to make the playoffs (on April 27) to -160, according to DraftKings.

I have two Player Props for the Phillies vs. Reds tonight, the first involving a two-time MVP:

• Bryce Harper To Record 2+ Total Bases (+108 from DraftKings)

The Bearded One has hit home runs in each of his last two games. But don't hop on his HR odds market. Instead, what I like to do with a hot hitter is check his Total Bases odds. I can get +108 on Harper to record at least two total bases. Even two bloopy singles wins my bet.

• Andrew Painter To Record 6+ Strikeouts (+151 from DraftKings)

Painter is making his ninth start. Not just of the season, but ever. The tall rookie has been poised on the mound in 2026 for the Phillies, even in limited innings. He has one stinker of an outing, and the rest have been fine, or he had bad luck.

The 6-foot-7 righty is averaging 8 strikouts per nine innings. He only needs to approach his career-high of eight to win this prop bet. Mattingly is gradually loosening the leash: allowing Painter to go deeper in games. That will help with this wager.

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Monday MLB Game Prediction: Blue Jays +1.5 at Yankees

The Yankees are glad to be home. That's because their road trip went 2-7 terrible, with three series losses, to the Brewers, Orioles, and Mets in the Subway Series. Sunday, the Yanks lost on a walkoff to the pesky Mets, who somehow manage to grab more headlines than their crosstown rivals even when they lose.

The Yankee bullpen is taxed following the three games against the Mets. The ball will rest in the hand of lefty Ryan Weathers, who has just three quality starts in seven outings. He was strong last week against the Orioles, but topped 100 pitches. The last time he threw 100+ pitches, he was rocked in his next start (five runs in five innings vs the Angels on April 14). This southpaw is sort of all or nothing: strikeouts will pile up, but opponents are getting too many hard hits off him: he ranks in the bottom 35% in Hard Hit Percentage.

• Toronto +1.5 Runs at Yankees (-130 from FanDuel)

Take 1.5 runs on the Jays with their workhorse Patrick Corbin on the bump. This one should be a close game, and I like Toronto to win, but will rest on the Run Line instead at -130. That means my winning $130 bet earns me $100.

MLB Best Bets: Machado and Yamamoto Player Props for May 18

The best game of Monday night's MLB action will take place on the left coast, where the Padres host the Dodgers. Game time is 9:40 p.m. ET, and you will be able to see it on MLB.TV out of market.

Dodgers ace(?) Yoshi Yamamoto is starting for the road team. The question mark represents Shohei Ohtani, who is challenging his teammate and fellow countryman for the ace status on the Dodgers. But tonight, Yamamoto gets his first crack at the Padres in 2026.

Yamamoto has been punished by the Padres lineup: a career 6.38 ERA vs. San Diego in four starts. But, I don't need a shutout. I want a long outing. Yamamoto led the NL in fewest hits allowed in 2025. His hit rate the last three seasons rates second in MLB. That leads to fewer pitches, and more outs recorded.

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto To Record Over 18.5 Outs (+128 from FanDuel)

I'm going half a unit ($50 wager) on the Yamamoto bet. He's recorded at least 19 outs in three of his last five starts.

The 2026 season has been unkind to Padres slugger Manny Machado. He has a .277 OBP and .327 SLG. He's on pace to set a career-high in strikeouts. But if there's one thing we know about Manny: he gets better as the weather warms. He's also one of baseball's smartest players.

Once Miguel Cabrera retired a few seasons ago, Machado assumed the title of "Best Base Runner Who Rarely Steals Bases." Manny knows how to get a lead, how to get a great jump. He's not asked to do so much, and he picks his spots (only two steal tries in 2026). But with his plate results lagging, I like the chances of Machado pushing a bit on the base paths.

• Manny Machado To Record a Stolen Base (+1140 from DraftKings)