MLB Best Home Run Bets (April 3): Yordan Alvarez, Riley Greene, Kyle Schwarber lead Friday picks

Friday starts the first complete schedule of weekend MLB games, as 15 matchups will take place tonight, Saturday and Sunday. In this article I'll pick three Home Run prop bets for tonight's games.

In the first week-plus of the MLB season, pitchers are ahead of hitters, at least in regards to home runs and extra-base hits (down 5% compared to last season).

(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

A few notable batters have yet to hit a home run: Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers; Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays; and Cal Raleigh of the Mariners. Those three smacked 138 home runs last season. Francisco Lindor of the Mets is also seeking his first home run of 2026.

But none of those four batters are in my Home Run Bets for tonight. Instead, I'm leading with a player who many have forgotten about because of an injury he suffered last season.

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Pick 'Em HR Hitters

Not much can be easier than a wager on the Home Run odds market. Simply place a bet on a player to hit a home run. If he does, Plákata, you win!

Odds in this article are from BetMGM sports betting app.

Yordan Álvarez, Houston Astros

In 2025, the Astros missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. A big reason was the injury to Yordan Álvarez, who played only 48 games, and missed three months due to a broken bone in his right hand.

But I'm not breaking any news in saying that Álvarez's return to health is a huge story for the Astros. The powerful left-handed hitter is a special offensive weapon. When he hits a baseball just right, it sounds different than most players. He's an incredible hitter, not just a slugger.

In seven games this season, Álvarez has three home runs, three doubles, and eight runs scored. He's even 1-for-1 in stolen base attempts. It's only been a week, but his slashline is ridiculous: 417/563/917.

Álvarez will face the A's in that tiny ballpark in Sacramento tonight. The nice thing about Álvarez: he hits HR to every part of the field. He doesn't need to just yank the baseball down the line.

• Yordan Álvarez To Hit a Home Run vs. Athletics: +275

For these three HR player prop bets on Friday, I plan to wager $10 per. Whichever betting unit and budget you have, adjust payouts accordingly.

Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers left fielder is the perfect exemplar of the modern hitter: he's wrapped up in launch angle, bat speed, attack zone, and every other analytic metric that the bowtie-wearing nerds in the front office are printing out on reports from their giant computers.

Riley Greene thinks less and adjusts less than just about any batter in MLB. He also swings harder than almost any player. In 2025, he was in the top 20 in baseball in bat speed. This season he ranks 15th.

But Greene is still looking for his first home run. The Tigers play this afternoon in their home opener. I like Greene to yank a pitch into the right field bullpen. Odds are nice at +340.

• Riley Greene To Hit a Home Run vs. Cardinals: +340

Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies

You could forgive Kyle Schwarber if he sends a taxi cab to Michael Lorenzen to make sure the Colorado pitcher gets to the ballpark. The left-handed slugger has three HR off Lorenzen in his career. And tonight, he gets to face Lorenzen in Denver, more than 5,000 feet above sea level.

For his career, Schwarber has eight(!) home runs in 21 games at Coors Field. His slugging percentage in that ballpark is nearly .600, and he's obviously on a tear: two HR this season in six games.  If he was able to play 81 games in that park, Schwarber might hit 60 home runs.

According to BetMGM, Schwarber is +800 to lead MLB in home runs this season. A winning wager on that Futures Bet would be worth $80 per $10 bet.

For tonight, I'll take these odds from BetMGM:

• Kyle Schwarber To Hit a Home Run vs Rockies: +200

A winning $100 wager would earn $200. Plus you get your stake back.

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Home Run Trends Early This Season

We've seen 188 team games, or 94 total games so far in the young 2026 MLB season. So far, the pitchers seem to be ahead of the hitters. One reason may be the weather: it's been unusually cool across the U.S. in March and early April.

Here are trends regarding home runs, hitting, and pitching:

• We're seeing 2.1 HR per game this season, compared to 2.4 in 2025 (both teams combined per game).
• Some of the batters who are still homerless: Ronald Acuña Jr., Randy Arozarena, and Julio Rodriguez.
• Starting pitchers are recording one full out MORE per start so far, compared to last season.
• Relief pitchers are allowing more HR per out recorded than the 2025 MLB season.
• Starting pitchers are stingier so far, surrendering fewer HR per out at a rate 8% lower than last season.
• Runs scored per game are 4.34, which is down slightly compared to 4.46 a year ago.