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Best MLB Bets Today June 30: The Arms Who Deserve Appreciation on Sunday

Publish Date: 06/29/2024
Fact checked by: Allan Howe

Check out my Best MLB Picks for today

We've got a loaded slate of afternoon baseball on Sunday, and instead of backing some trendy starters I'll be looking to more under-appreciated arms that carry with them a ton of value.

(Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

The Boston Red Sox should be in a friendly spot to bounce back from Sunday's beatdown at the hands of the Padres, while the Cubs have a chance to keep the good times rolling in Milwaukee. I'm also not shying away from Sunday Night Baseball, either, where I think we'll be treated to a highly-entertaining slugfest.

Let's waste no more time and dive into our MLB Best Bets for Sunday, June 30.

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MLB BEST BET FOR SAN DIEGO PADRES VS BOSTON RED SOX

The San Diego Padres may have broken out at the plate on Saturday, but in hitting four home runs they not only did something that is foreign to them but something that we probably shouldn't expect to happen again on Sunday.

San Diego ranks 26th in baseball when it comes to fly ball rate and even though that number's come up over the last two weeks, the increase has marginal and only puts them around the league average.

  • They'll be up against a ground-baller in Josh Winckowski who's been bouncing around between the bullpen and rotation this season but as a starter this year owns a spicy 1.69 ERA in three appearances.

He made two promising starts down in Triple-A, albeit short ones, before getting the call back to the bigs and coming in as the long reliever last time out spun six innings of two-run ball against the Blue Jays with eight strikeouts.

The Padres own much better numbers against fly-ball pitchers this season and have declined at the plate in general over the last two weeks which is why I'm not entirely sure we should read into one game or be fearful of it.

The Red Sox should have a positive outlook in the pitching matchup here and will draw Matt Waldron, who should help this powerful bunch with his fly-ball ways. I don't agree with the price that oddsmakers have set.

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Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-112 at FanDuel)

Looking to bet this one as the action unfolds? Check out our MLB Live Betting Guide.

MLB BEST BET FOR CHICAGO CUBS VS. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Don't look now, but the Chicago Cubs are starting to play some baseball. They won in inspired fashion on Saturday to give them two wins in their last three contests and are beginning to display some more patience at the plate, even if that's come with some increasing strikeout totals, marrying that with some better contact hitting.

That makes for a captivating showdown with Freddy Peralta, whose nemesis has been the walk and the batted ball in all honesty. He's pretty much a strikeout-or-nothing pitcher, and while his expected hit totals are low he's been prone to giving up homers and extra base hits over the years.

Chicago's had its issues against strikeout pitchers, but it's struggled against just about everyone over the last month or so. It's sporting a much better OPS against fly-ball arms and I have the slightest bit of faith here given Peralta's been a pitcher on the decline after his hot start and theoretically should struggle at a hitter-friendly park against a team which can lift the ball into the seats.

Conversely, Kyle Hendricks once again finds himself in the rotation after a slew of injuries and will bring his ground-ball ways into a park where that style of pitching is awarded.

Milwaukee's nowhere close to as strong at the dish as it was in the first month and a half here and I think there are few reasons to beΒ thisΒ terrified of backing the Cubs to win.

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Best Bet: Cubs ML (+150 at DraftKings)

Not sure where to place your bet? Be sure to check out our ballislifebets section.Β 

MLB BEST BET FOR TEXAS RANGERS VS BALTIMORE ORIOLES

The Texas Rangers have been abysmal all year at the plate, so it's hard to read into the fact that they've struggled versus fly-ball arms, but this is still a team that likes to get the ball into the air judging by the season-long trends and they should wake up at some point and enjoy hitting in a home run-friendly Camden Yards.

They've hit lefties harder than righties this year with an eight-point delta in batting average and a slightly higher OPS, putting them in a nice spot against the middling Cole Irvin.

  • The Orioles lefty has allowed a wealth of contact to few walks, and he's combined a poor hard-hit rate with far too many fly balls.

Texas has been roughly average in strikeouts, but given its hitting profile it should be able to produce more fly balls here and hopefully a solid offensive showing. With who they've got on the hill, though, it may only take one home run to help us get to the Over.

That's because Andrew Heaney is poorly-equipped for this matchup with an even more extreme fly ball look to his game than Irvin and owns a dreadful .444 Expected Slugging heading into the matchup. Baltimore has one of the most powerful offenses in the game, particularly at home, and sports the second-best wRC+ in baseball against lefties.

I expect plenty of scoring here.

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NRFI Predictions: Over 9 Runs (-115 at FanDuel)

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