MLB Dinger Tuesday Best Bets (Sept. 22): Shea Langeliers Leads Home Run Picks

It's the final MLB Dinger Tuesday of the year, so we're going out swinging. Pun intended. With the Major League Baseball regular season winding down, we've got three home run bets that stand out thanks to a combination of batter-versus-pitcher history, handedness splits, recent form and some very attackable opposing pitching.

Last week, four out of my five predicted long balls happened. I intend to carry that momentum forward here and into the playoffs next week.

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Dinger Tuesday MLB Home Run Best Bets for Sept. 22

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Shea Langeliers Home Run (+260 via FanDuel)

We’ll start in Sacramento, where the Athletics are set to take on Yusei Kikuchi and the Los Angeles Angels. Kikuchi enters Tuesday with a 5.02 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and his struggles on the road make this matchup particularly interesting. He has posted a 5.66 ERA away from home compared to a 4.03 ERA at home.

That lines up nicely with Shea Langeliers, who has already had some success against Kikuchi. In his career, Langeliers is 2-for-8 against the lefty with a home run and a double.

The bigger reason to like Langeliers, though, is the matchup based on handedness. The Athletics catcher has been significantly more productive against left-handed pitching, slugging .607 against southpaws compared to .431 against righties. That kind of split is exactly what we want to see when targeting a home run prop against a left-handed starter.

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His home/road numbers provide another reason for optimism. Langeliers owns a .542 slugging percentage at home compared to .434 on the road, giving him another favorable statistical angle for Tuesday's matchup.

Kikuchi's career history against right-handed power hitters is also something to watch. Righties have generally been capable of doing damage against him, and this season he has allowed a .470 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters.

With the favorable handedness split, strong home power numbers and some previous success against Kikuchi, Langeliers is a compelling candidate to go deep. They don't call him "Bangaliers" for nothing.

Nolan Arenado Home Run (+420 via FanDuel)

Next up is Nolan Arenado, who gets a familiar opponent in Kyle Freeland as the Diamondbacks travel to Coors Field in a must-win series for Arizona as it hunts for the final wild card spot.

Arenado's history against Freeland immediately jumps off the page. He's 5-for-10 against the left-hander with two doubles and five walks in his career. While the sample size is small, the combination of success at the plate and the favorable matchup makes it worth noting.

Even more importantly, Arenado has been scorching the ball in September.

Through his first 60 at-bats this month, Arenado is hitting .317 with six home runs, 13 RBIs and a .650 slugging percentage. He also enters Tuesday fresh off a grand slam against the Yankees, giving him another big swing heading into a matchup with Colorado.

The handedness matchup is favorable as well. Arenado has produced a .544 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching compared to .422 against righties.

How Kyle Freeland's Struggles Factor In

Freeland, meanwhile, has had a difficult season overall. He's entering this matchup with a 6.38 ERA, and his numbers against right-handed hitters are particularly noteworthy, with righties posting a .942 OPS against him compared to .716 for lefties.

That is a significant matchup advantage for Arenado, who will be hitting from the right side against Freeland.

And then there's the venue.

Coors Field is always a factor when we're talking about home run props, and Arenado gets to return to the ballpark where he spent the first decade of his career. Arizona is entering the series with its postseason hopes hanging by a thread, while Colorado is already eliminated, adding some extra importance to every at-bat for the Diamondbacks.

With Arenado's September power surge, his success against Freeland and the matchup against a pitcher who has struggled against right-handed bats, this is an intriguing spot for No. 27.

Corbin Carroll Home Run (+382 via DraftKings)

We're sticking with the same game for our final pick, but this time we're targeting Corbin Carroll.

Carroll has also enjoyed success against Freeland, going 5-for-12 with a home run and three walks in his career against the Colorado lefty. Even more interesting is the fact that Carroll's handedness splits run opposite of what we'd traditionally expect from a left-handed hitter.

While Freeland is generally more effective against lefties, Carroll has posted a massive .959 OPS against southpaws compared to .729 against right-handed pitching.

That's a major reason this matchup stands out.

Carroll also brings plenty of recent home run upside into Tuesday's game. He has already homered three times in September, including a blast against the Yankees on September 18 and another against Miami on September 14.

And if Carroll doesn't get Freeland, there's still plenty of reason to like the matchup late in the game.

According to InsideThePen, Colorado's bullpen currently ranks 30th out of 30 teams, with a 5.14 season ERA. That gives Carroll additional opportunities to do damage if Freeland exits early.

Add in the fact that this game is being played at Coors Field, and Carroll has several paths to a home run.