MLB Dinger Tuesday Bets: Home Run Odds & Predictions for July 21

The biggest story in MLB is the Boston Red Sox, who suddenly cannot lose. That's 14 wins in a row for the Red Sox after a come-from-behind victory on Monday at Fenway Park against the Orioles.

A home run (go ahead shot by Caleb Durbin in the 8th) was pivotal in Boston's 14th win last night, so it's appropriate that here we are for Dinger Tuesday Bets. I'm going to be looking at the matchup between Baltimore's pitchers and the red-hot Red Sox lineup as I make my picks.

(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

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Odds for To Hit a a Home Run on Dinger Tuesday this week are from FanDuel.

MLB Dinger Tuesday Picks: Home Run Bets for July 21

• My Pick: Wilyer Abreu To Hit a Home Run (+430 from FanDuel)

The last two times Baltimore starting pitcher Kyle Bradish faced Boston, he has allowed a total of three home runs in 11 innings.

Wilyer Abreu continues to rake: he has three multi-hit games in his last four games, and four in his last eight. That includes five HR and nine RBI. Abreu has only three ABs against Bradish, but he's 1-for-3.

Willson Contreras and Trevor Story have HR's against Bradish in the last two starts by that pitcher. In fact, Contreras has a home run off Bradish in every game he's ever faced the right-hander. But at some point that has to stop, right? Which is why I'm looking at Boston hitters who are on a tear. Which is why my betting slip for Tuesday has Abreu's name on it.

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MLB Home Run Bets: Houston's Yordan Alvarez hits HR in bunches

• My Pick: Yordan Alvarez To Hit a Home Run (+235 from FanDuel)

Want a streaky home run slugger? Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one HR in 28 games (33 HR total). He's hit a homer in the game AFTER he's hit a home run 10 times. That's 10-for-27, or 37%, a much higher percentage than we would normally expect. Home runs can come in clusters, but often it's HR/NO HR/HR/NO HR and so on. To hit a HR in the game after you hit a home run nearly 40% of the time is unusual.

Another way to look for streaky HR hitters is to find the batters with a lot of multi-home run games. Alvarez has 12 multi-HR games since 2024, the most in MLB. He hit two homers on Monday against Miami.

MLB Home Run Bets: Jack Wilson's kid to stay hot at the plate

• My Pick: Jacob Wilson To Hit a Home Run (+1100 from FanDuel)

A's infielder Jacob Wilson, a second-generation big leaguer, has an eight-game hitting streak. In that stretch, Wilson has 15 hits (six multi-hit games), and on Monday he went deep against the Diamondbacks. The runner-up in the 2025 American League Rookie of the Year voting is starting to emerge from a funk that kept his batting numbers down the first few months of his sophomore season.

Wilson and his teammates will face Kohl Drake in his MLB debut. And Drake is a left-hander, which works out nicely for right-handed hitting Wilson, who has three HR in only 81 AB's against lefties in 2026. That's one home run per 27 at-bat against LHP, and one home run per every 43 at-bats against right-handed pitching for Wilson.

The weather in Phoenix won't hurt either. It is expected to be 99 degrees with high humidity Tuesday in Phoenix. That means the baseball and its 108 seams will travel higher and farther than is typical.

It's also important to note that Phoenix has the second-highest elevation of MLB cities, at more than 1,000 feet above sea level. According to Statcast, Chase Field has the second-largest park factor for extra-base hits and long HR in the 2026 season.