MLB Dinger Tuesday Bets: Home Run Odds & Predictions for June 23

It’s Dinger Tuesday, and we’ve got a full slate of MLB games to choose from. This article will be a bit different, as I’ll only be listing my favorite home run candidates for today.

Picking home run hitters on a daily basis is never easy. There are countless metrics to sort through — everything from ballpark factors and weather conditions to pitcher splits, barrel rates and recent form. But after digging through all those numbers, the key is figuring out which stats are most likely to actually move the needle in a given matchup.

(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

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MLB Dinger Tuesday Picks: Home Run Predictions for June 23

• My Pick: Willson Contreras HR (+300 via FanDuel)

Willson Contreras continues to be one of the stronger power hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching, posting a 1.025 OPS with five home runs against southpaws this season. He has long been a hitter who punishes lefties, but he’s putting together one of his better all-around offensive seasons as well, entering Tuesday batting .281 with 16 home runs overall.

The matchup gets even more appealing because of the setting. Tuesday’s game takes place at Coors Field, widely regarded as the best home run environment in baseball because of Denver’s altitude. According to Baseball Savant, Coors Field has ranked as the most home run-friendly ballpark in MLB over the past three seasons, making it one of the best parks on the slate for a power prop.

On top of it all, the opposing lefty will be a rookie making his MLB debut in Sean Sullivan — meaning some early game jitters might help our case.

MLB Home Run Bets: Spencer Torkelson vs. Carlos Rodón

• My Pick: Spencer Torkelson (+430 via DraftKings)

We haven't heard his name much this year, but Spencer Torkelson stands out as a sneaky strong home run candidate Tuesday in a matchup against veteran lefty Carlos Rodón, especially with the recent form at the dish he’s bringing into Tuesday's game.

Torkelson appears to be heating up at the plate, going 5-for-10 over his last three games with two doubles, and the quality of contact has looked much better. The power hasn’t fully shown up yet during this stretch, but that kind of solid contact often signals home runs could be coming.

The matchup history is also somewhat encouraging. In 13 career at-bats against Rodón, Torkelson is 3-for-13, but two of those three hits went for extra bases — including a home run and a double. That’s notable against a veteran left-hander who has generally done a solid job suppressing right-handed power this season.

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Why it's wise to fade Carlos Rodon Today

That said, there are still reasons to believe Rodón could be due for some regression. While his surface numbers have been strong, some underlying metrics suggest he has benefited from a bit of good fortune, especially considering the amount of hard contact and fly balls he has allowed.

I think it’s also fair to fade Rodon away from Yankee Stadium, where he has posted a 4.05 ERA on the road this season. That has largely been a consistent trend throughout his time with the New York Yankees.

I think that trend should be taken seriously — as it makes sense given the type of pitcher Rodón is. The veteran lefty has historically been more effective against left-handed hitters, and pitching in Yankee Stadium naturally plays into that strength thanks to the short porch in right field, which tends to be much more favorable for left-handed power than right-handed bats. Away from that environment, some of that built-in advantage starts to disappear.

Torkelson’s home splits add even more appeal. Every season of his career, he has been a better hitter at Comerica Park, and that trend has continued this year with a .764 OPS at home compared to a .692 OPS on the road.

With Torkelson seeing the ball well lately, owning prior success against Rodón, and historically hitting better at home, this feels like a strong spot to back his power upside Tuesday.

More MLB Home Run Bets for June 23

• My Pick: Jackson Chourio HR (+310 via FanDuel)

Jackson Chourio gets a favorable power matchup against Nick Lodolo, who has struggled badly this season with a 6.12 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.

Those struggles have been even more pronounced at home in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, where Lodolo owns a 7.27 ERA. While most pitchers tend to benefit from pitching at home, that hasn’t been the case for Lodolo, as home struggles have followed him throughout much of his career in Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, Chourio has been red-hot since returning from injury, batting .294 with 10 home runs in roughly a month and a half of action. He has also seen Lodolo fairly well in limited opportunities, going 2-for-7 with a double.

• My Pick: Josh Naylor HR (+590 via FanDuel)

Josh Naylor stands out as an intriguing power option Tuesday against Mitch Keller, a pitcher he has already found success against in his career.

Across eight career at-bats against Keller, Naylor is 3-for-8 with a home run, showing solid familiarity in the matchup.

Keller has struggled overall this season, but his home numbers are especially concerning. Across eight starts at PNC Park, he owns a 5.77 ERA.

While PNC Park is not typically viewed as a hitter-friendly ballpark, weather conditions could help left-handed power Tuesday night. With 10 mph winds projected to blow out toward right field, the environment could play much more favorably for a left-handed bat like Naylor.