MLB Dinger Tuesday Bets: Shohei Ohtani Leads Home Run Odds & Predictions for July 28

We’ve got a full Tuesday card in Major League Baseball, which means there are plenty of spots to hunt for home run value across the board.

Picking home run hitters on a daily basis is never easy. There are countless metrics to sort through — everything from ballpark factors and weather conditions to pitcher splits, barrel rates and recent form. But after digging through all those numbers, the key is figuring out which stats are most likely to actually move the needle in a given matchup.

{Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

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MLB Dinger Tuesday Picks: Home Run Predictions for July 28

• My MLB Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani HR (+210 via FanDuel)

Shohei Ohtani remains one of baseball's premier power hitters, but his 22 home runs through just past the halfway point of the season are actually below the pace he has set with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He hit 55 home runs two seasons ago and followed that with 54 last year, making this year's total seem modest by his standards.

Ohtani has also had tracked success against Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo, going 4-for-11 with one home run and two doubles in their previous meetings.

While Ohtani hasn't homered since July 12 against the Diamondbacks, before the All-Star break, the underlying numbers point toward a potential power surge. He has been noticeably more dangerous at Dodger Stadium, where he owns a .548 slugging percentage compared to a .500 mark on the road. He has also continued to thrive against right-handed pitching, posting a .915 OPS against righties this season after finishing at .885 last year.

Castillo has struggled throughout the season, carrying a 4.85 ERA while showing vulnerability against left-handed power hitters. Left-handed batters own a .495 slugging percentage against him, giving Ohtani a favorable matchup to break his home run drought.

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MLB Home Run Bets: Willson Contreras vs. Gage Jump

• My MLB Best Bet Pick: Willson Contreras HR (+310 via FanDuel)

Willson Contreras continues to be one of the best power hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching, posting a 1.002 OPS with seven home runs against southpaws this season. He has long been a hitter who punishes lefties, but he's putting together one of the better all-around offensive seasons of his career as well, entering Tuesday batting .287 with 22 home runs for the Boston Red Sox.

The matchup gets even more appealing because of the setting. Tuesday's game takes place at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, widely regarded as one of the best home run environments in baseball. According to Baseball Savant, the Athletics' home park has ranked as the second-most home run-friendly ballpark in MLB over the past year, making it one of the top parks on the slate for a power prop.

On top of that, Contreras gets a favorable matchup against rookie Athletics left-hander Gage Jump, who has struggled to build on his strong start to the season.

Jump looked like the immediate answer for an Athletics pitching staff that desperately needed stability, but the 23-year-old has come back down to earth in recent weeks. Since the start of July, he's struggled to keep the ball on the ground, resulting in a 7.94 ERA for the month. His increased hard contact and fly-ball tendencies have made him much more vulnerable to power, especially against experienced right-handed hitters.

Everything lines up well for Contreras in this spot. He has elite splits against left-handed pitching, draws one of the league's most favorable home run parks and faces a rookie southpaw who has been hit hard over the past month.

MLB Home Run Bets: Back The Japanese Rookie Sensation Against The Wily Veteran

• My Pick: Munetaka Murakami HR (+279 via DraftKings)

Rookie of the year candidate Munetaka Murakami is beginning to find his rhythm after missing roughly six weeks on the injured list. The Japanese rookie is coming off a two-home run performance on Sunday for the Chicago White Sox and appears to be heating up at the plate at the right time. He'll look to keep that momentum going Tuesday against veteran New York Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole.

Cole has been one of baseball's premier pitchers for more than a decade, but he hasn't looked quite like himself this season. He enters the matchup with a 3.92 ERA, and if the season ended today, it would be his highest ERA since 2017, when he finished with a 4.26 mark.

His underlying splits are also concerning, particularly away from Yankee Stadium. Cole has posted a 4.73 ERA on the road compared to a 3.31 ERA at home, making this a much more favorable spot for opposing hitters.

Murakami has done the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching. Eighteen of his 22 home runs have come off righties, and he owns an impressive .998 OPS with a massive .602 slugging percentage in those matchups. As his timing has returned following his stint on the injured list, his power has begun to show up consistently, highlighted by Sunday's multi-homer game.

The conditions also favor left-handed power. Forecasts call for 17 mph winds blowing out to right field at Rate Field, giving an extra boost to pull-side fly balls. With Murakami swinging one of the hottest bats in the lineup, favorable platoon splits, and weather working in his favor against a vulnerable road version of Cole, the matchup sets up well for another power-filled night.