MLB Dinger Tuesday Best Bets (August 18): Elly De La Cruz Leads Home Run Picks

Dinger Tuesday is back, and the home run board features plenty of intriguing spots to target. Let's take a look at my favorite MLB home run bets for Tuesday, Aug. 18.

(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

While long ball props come with plenty of variance, identifying the best bets starts with first finding the hitters in favorable matchups. Pitcher tendencies, platoon splits, batter-versus-pitcher history and ballpark factors can all help uncover the best opportunities.

After breaking down Tuesday’s MLB slate, these are the hitters who stand out as my favorite home run targets.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Dinger Tuesday MLB Home Run Best Bets for Aug. 18

Elly De La Cruz HR (+390 via FanDuel)

Elly De La Cruz (.819 OPS, 20 HRs) is coming off the first walk-off hit of his career, which is almost hard to believe considering the kind of moments he's already produced in his young career. The Reds' star shortstop delivered a 10th-inning RBI double Monday night to give Cincinnati a 6-5 comeback victory over St. Louis.

Now he gets a chance to keep that momentum going against Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy.

The matchup history is already encouraging. De La Cruz is 3-for-7 against Leahy, with two home runs and a double. That's a small sample, but when you're looking for a home-run prop, two homers in seven career at-bats is certainly worth noting.

Leahy has also been considerably less effective away from Busch Stadium this season. His road ERA sits at 3.96 compared to 2.91 at home, and his road numbers include 10 home runs allowed in 52.1 innings.

That's especially concerning when the game will be played at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Why Elly De La Cruz Can Hit a Home Run Today

Cincinnati's home park has long been one of the premier home-run environments in baseball, and the 2026 Statcast park-factor data backs that up. Great American Ball Park currently carries a 123 home-run factor, well above the league-average baseline of 100.

De La Cruz has also shown a clear home-field boost this season. He's hitting .292 with a .524 slugging percentage at Great American Ball Park, compared to a .229 average and .424 slugging percentage on the road.

That combination makes this a particularly appealing spot. De La Cruz has already taken Leahy deep twice, Leahy has been more vulnerable away from home, and now the matchup moves into a ballpark that consistently rewards power.

After finally getting that elusive walk-off hit Monday, De La Cruz could make it two straight nights of heroics.

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Jake McCarthy HR (+860 via FanDuel)

Jake McCarthy (.824 OPS, 13 HRs) is one of my favorite Dinger Tuesday value targets, and there are plenty of reasons to like his matchup tonight against Eric Lauer.

McCarthy has already seen Lauer 10 times in his career, collecting three hits without striking out. That history is particularly interesting considering Lauer is a left-handed pitcher and McCarthy has actually been better against lefties this season. McCarthy is hitting .320 with a .550 slugging percentage against southpaws, compared to a .288 average and .476 slugging percentage against right-handers.

Lauer, meanwhile, has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters. He has allowed a .859 OPS to lefties compared to a .736 OPS against righties. While Lauer has put together a respectable season overall, his recent form has been a concern, with his ERA climbing to 6.10 this month. He has also been significantly worse on the road, allowing opponents to hit .268 compared to a .215 average at home.

That's a lot of red flags for a pitcher who now has to deal with McCarthy in Colorado.

Coors Field is a Significant Factor

McCarthy is enjoying a career year with the Rockies, hitting .294 with 13 home runs. He's also emerged as a key piece at the top of Colorado's lineup, giving him the opportunity to rack up multiple plate appearances in one of baseball's best hitting environments. Recent reports have highlighted his success since taking over the leadoff role, including a .315/.342/.523 stretch over 26 games.

And then there's the obvious factor: Coors Field. Baseball Savant's 2026 park-factor data has Coors with a 127 home-run factor, meaning the park has played significantly above league average for home runs.

Put all of that together: McCarthy's success against lefties, his history against Lauer, Lauer's struggles against left-handed bats and on the road, plus the friendly confines of Coors. McCarthy checks nearly every box I'm looking for in a home run play at plus-money value.

I can't believe most books have him at +800 or higher. Hammer his line with a small wager and reap the benefits.

Dinger Tuesday Honorable Mentions

I've noticed after writing a few of these articles that there are just so many ways I can go with my picks. I always have more picks than what I write about, but sometimes a pick doesn't make the cut and I end up kicking myself when they blast one out of the ballpark later in the day.

With that, I'm going to add an honorable mentions section at the end just to make sure I don't do that anymore.

• Ronald Acuña Jr. to hit a home run vs. Minnesota Twins (+390 via FanDuel)
• Byron Buxton to hit a home run vs. Atlanta Braves (+300 via FanDuel)
• Pete Alonso to hit a home run vs. New York Yankees (+402 via DraftKings)