MLB Dinger Tuesday Best Bets (August 25): Byron Buxton Leads Home Run Picks

The Dinger Tuesday board is loaded with potential, but not every home run prop is created equal. With a full slate of MLB action on tap, there are several hitters who stand out from the pack in matchups that could lead to long balls.

(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

From struggling veteran pitchers giving up too much hard contact to hitter-friendly ballparks creating an extra boost, this article will break down how these all factor in. The key is finding the right combination of matchup, price and power.

After breaking down Tuesday’s MLB slate, these are the hitters who stand out as my favorite home run targets.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Dinger Tuesday MLB Home Run Best Bets for Aug. 25

Byron Buxton Home Run (+240 via FanDuel)

Athletics starter Gage Jump got off to a promising start this season, but his consistency has completely fallen off over the past couple of months. Those struggles have pushed his ERA to 4.83 alongside a 1.51 WHIP, and the biggest concern is what has happened when he takes the mound in Sacramento.

Jump has posted a brutal 6.02 ERA across nine starts at Sutter Health Park, making Tuesday's matchup particularly appealing for a power hitter like Byron Buxton. The ballpark itself only adds to the appeal. Sutter Health Park ranked second in MLB in overall Statcast park factor in 2025 at 108, while its 112 home-run park factor ranked among the league's most favorable.

The 2026 numbers have been even more extreme. Sutter Health Park currently carries a 141 HR park factor, meaning home runs have been occurring at a rate roughly 41% above the league average there.

And it's not as if Jump has suddenly found his form. His August has been downright ugly, with the right-hander surrendering 16 earned runs over just four games. His most recent outing was another head-scratcher, as he gave up five earned runs in four innings against Kansas City.

That puts Buxton in an excellent spot. One of MLB's premier power hitters, Buxton is already showing signs of heating up after going 3-for-5 with a walk in Monday night's game in Sacramento. The hits are encouraging, but I'm expecting the power to follow Tuesday. With Jump struggling, Sacramento playing like one of baseball's best home-run environments and Buxton finding his swing, this is a spot where I expect him to leave the yard.

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Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run (+507 via DraftKings)

At this point in his career, Max Scherzer has become one of the more attackable pitchers in baseball and particularly an appealing matchup for home-run props. This season, Scherzer has allowed a massive 2.33 HR/9 to left-handed hitters and 2.50 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.

The matchup gets even better when you factor in the ballpark. The Royals are moving into a much friendlier power environment, with Rogers Centre ranking among the league's top parks for home-run production from both sides of the plate.

Scherzer's recent history makes this even more difficult to ignore. Since the beginning of last season, he owns the worst HR/9 mark among MLB starters today, and that's saying something considering Aaron Nola is also taking the mound Tuesday. Scherzer did enjoy a solid stretch after returning from the injured list, but that momentum disappeared in his most recent outing when he was shelled for seven runs.

He's also been particularly vulnerable at Rogers Centre this season, posting an 8.33 ERA while allowing nine home runs in just 27 innings.

That makes this a matchup where I have interest in essentially the entire Royals lineup, but Vinnie Pasquantino is the most valuable choice for me at +570. While he doesn't have as many home runs as Jac Caglianone this month - two compared to five - Pasquantino's .769 slugging percentage leads the Royals and ranks third in all of baseball during August.

There's also a strong reason to believe he's carrying over the form he showed before and after his wrist injury. Pasquantino missed 17 games, but since returning he's posted a ridiculous 1.218 OPS across seven games, with two home runs and six extra-base hits.

Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+350 via FanDuel)

Bobby Witt Jr. is obviously another major threat in this matchup, but Pasquantino is the value play I prefer. With Scherzer's home-run issues, a favorable ballpark and Pasquantino swinging a scorching-hot bat, there's a lot of meat on this HR bone.

Dinger Tuesday Honorable Mentions

I've noticed after writing a few of these articles that there are just so many ways I can go with my picks. I always have more picks than what I write about, but sometimes a pick doesn't make the cut and I end up kicking myself when they blast one out of the ballpark later in the day.

With that, I'm going to add an honorable mentions section at the end just to make sure I don't do that anymore.

• Jac Caglianone to hit a home run vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+310 via FanDuel)
• Pete Alonso to hit a home run vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+440 via FanDuel)