MLB Dinger Tuesday Best Bets (Sept. 1): Pete Alonso Leads Home Run Picks

September is here and we are less than a month away from postseason baseball. Time flies, doesn't it? It feels like a month ago I was writing some preview articles for MLB but here we are.

(Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

Anyway, after breaking down Tuesday’s MLB slate, these are the hitters who stand out as my favorite home run targets for Sept. 1.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Ballislife Bets has compiled a convenient list of the best sports betting offers here where you can find more MLB and sports betting promotions.

Dinger Tuesday MLB Home Run Best Bets for Sept. 1

Pete Alonso Home Run (+285 via FanDuel)

Pete Alonso will go up against Rockies starter Gabriel Hughes, who has struggled mightily lately, allowing a staggering 10.03 ERA in August and surrendering at least one home run in each of the five games he’s pitched. Here's why I like this play for today.

When you look at his splits, it’s interesting to find that Hughes is a righty who struggles more against righties — allowing an .816 slugging percentage against right-handed hitters compared to a .739 slugging percentage against lefties.

Alonso fits this matchup perfectly because he has a massive difference in his splits this year against righties and lefties. Versus lefties, he’s only hitting with a .778 OPS and a .448 slugging percentage. Against righties, the Polar Bear has a .897 OPS with a .524 slugging percentage in 355 at-bats.

On top of the matchup in splits, Alonso will go up against the worst bullpen in the league right now, according to Insidethepen.com. He’s also proved to hit this bullpen well, with a 1.214 OPS in 26 plate appearances against the Rockies' currently rostered arms. This is a strong matchup for Alonso in terms of home runs.

Most importantly, this game will be played at Coors Field. The Denver ballpark is widely regarded as the best hitters' park in baseball, with its high elevation and thin air making it easier for balls to carry. That creates an especially favorable environment for a power hitter like Alonso. This is a strong play for today.

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Jordan Walker Home Run (+300 via FanDuel)

This year's Home Run Derby champion Jordan Walker has an outstanding matchup Tuesday against left-handed starter Eric Lauer of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Walker has launched 27 home runs this season while posting a .363 wOBA and a 42.5% hard-hit rate. He’s been even better on the road, where 17 of his 27 homers have come along with a .383 wOBA.

The matchup against Lauer is where this play becomes particularly appealing. Walker has posted a .392 wOBA against left-handed pitching, accompanied by a massive 51.4% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate. Lauer, meanwhile, has struggled to a 15.4% strikeout rate since joining Los Angeles and has surrendered 1.98 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters this season, along with a 51.0% fly-ball rate.

Lauer has also allowed at least one home run in nine of his 11 starts since arriving in Los Angeles, and his home run rate ranks fourth-highest among the 110 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings this year. His recent usage does add some uncertainty — Lauer worked out of the bullpen in his last appearance and threw only two innings — but he has eclipsed 84 pitches in 11 of his other 12 appearances with the Dodgers, including 10 of 11 starts. Walker could only need a couple of plate appearances against him to do damage.

Why Jordan Walker Can Hit a Home Run Today

The pitch mix is another reason to like Walker. Lauer uses a four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup and curveball against right-handed hitters, and Walker has eight home runs and 11 near home runs in just 92 plate appearances this season against lefties on those four pitches. He also homered against Lauer in their only meeting back in 2023.

Walker’s power has taken another step forward this season, with a 13.5% barrel rate that is nearly double his 7.5% mark from 2023. And the hitting environment in Los Angeles adds another layer to the matchup. Walker has 33 expected home runs at Dodger Stadium this season, the most of any player at any Major League park.

Even if Lauer’s outing is shortened, Walker’s combination of elite contact quality, success against left-handed pitching and favorable pitch mix gives him multiple paths to leave the yard Tuesday. Lock this home run bet in with Ballislife today.

Dinger Tuesday Honorable Mentions

I've noticed after writing a few of these articles that there are just so many ways I can go with my picks. I always have more picks than what I write about, but sometimes a pick doesn't make the cut and I end up kicking myself when they blast one out of the ballpark later in the day.

With that, I'm going to add an honorable mentions section at the end just to make sure I don't do that anymore.

• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+410 via FanDuel)
• Samuel Basallo (+350 via FanDuel)
• Alex Bregman (+470 via FanDuel)