2026 MLB MVP Odds and Prediction: Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani Open as Favorites

The 2026 Major League Baseball season begins on March 25, but really gets rolling on March 26 with 11 Opening Day games.

Before we get to game betting, this is the time to analyze futures odds for the 2026 season. That includes one of my favorite markets: MVP awards.

(Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

We have two leagues, which means we have two most valuable player awards to hand out. That gives us a pair of opportunities for a futures bet attached to a season-long performance.

In the last two seasons, the same two players won the award in each league: Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Could we see a threepeat? That's only happened once: back when Barry Bonds was gulping steroids and hitting home runs.

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2026 MLB MVP Betting Odds

American League MVP Odds

These odds are from three of the top baseball betting apps.

National League MVP Odds

These NL MVP odds are from betting apps with baseball markets.

MVP Picks for 2026 MLB Season

Here are my picks for MVP winners, selected before the season. Odds listed by sportsbook where available.

American League MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

• ODDS: +1600 from BetMGM or FanDuel

Here's a trivia question: which father and son are the only pair to both win an MVP award in a major professional sports league?

The answer is Bobby Hull and Brett Hull (NHL).

Which means no father/son duo has both captured an MVP in the NFL, NBA, or MLB.

That can change in 2026 when Vladdy Jr. has his career year. It may feel like the Toronto first baseman has been in the league for a decade. But actually, he only just turned 27, and is entering his eighth season as a prodigy of a Hall of Fame father.

The best thing working for Guerrero Jr. to win the MVP award is availability. He plays nearly every game. In his last six seasons, he's been out of the lineup for only 18 games. Which means Vlad Jr. can put up BIG counting numbers.

If Guerrero Jr. can approach his career-highs in offensive categories, he can challenge and surpass favorites Judge and Witt for the AL MVP. That would result in around 195 hits, 120 runs, 40 doubles, 45 homers, 105 RBI, and 80 walks. He's established himself as a .290–.320 hitter as his level for batting average, and has already posted two seasons of 6+ Wins Above Replacement.

Guerrero has Triple Crown skills. There's no reason he can't be in the top five in the Triple Crown categories five times. He's earned enough MVP votes in the past two seasons to finish in the top ten twice. In 2021, when he was only 22, Vladdy was runner-up in AL MVP voting.

A winning $50 bet on Guerrero Jr. to win the MVP would result in a $850 payout.

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National League MVP: Brice Turang

ODDS: +15000 from BetMGM, +10000 from DraftKings

It's tough to imagine any player other than Ohtani winning the NL award while the Japanese All-Star is still in his prime. He'll be a two-way performer again: that's right, we'll see Shohei on the bump again in 2026.

But the chances are that Ohtani will not be able to pull off a trifecta. Looking around what they used to call the "senior circuit," I like Turang to mature into a superstar in his fourth season. The middle infielder has already done a lot of great things: he's increased his runs, hits, homers, and RBI every year. He hits both lefties and righties well and has extra-base pop. He has stolen as many as 50 bases in a season. He's also increased his walk rate every year while lowering his swing-and-misses.

What will Turang have to do to snatch the MVP trophy from Ohtani? How about a challenge to win the batting title (he can do that)? How about 25 home runs AND 50 steals? What about 40+ doubles, close to 200 hits, and 100 runs? Oh, and he's also a Gold Glove second baseman already, and should be in the running to win that award again.

Is Turang a long shot? Yes. But, not THAT much of a long shot. In 2024 and 2025, Turang was 10th in the NL in Wins Above Replacement.

Another indicator I like: Turang took a big step forward with power and OPS in the second half of 2025. He's 26 years old, and that could show a major jump in his maturation as a ballplayer.