MLB NRFI Odds & Bets (April 6): World Series Rematch Between Dodgers and Blue Jays Leads Picks

Here we are with 13 MLB games on the second Monday of the season. Most notably, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays meet again for the first time since the epic Game 7 of last year's World Series.

Which reminds me: why did Isiah Kiner-Falefa slide into home? Ugh, poor Blue Jays fans.

To start this week of betting picks, I'm focusing on No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets. Last week I finished up $150 or 1.5 units ahead. Adjust accordingly for your betting habits. Come back later this week when I publish my first Pitcher Prop Bets article. Look for that on Friday.

As always, consult your favorite baseball betting apps for MLB odds when planning your wagers.

MLB NRFI Leaders

These stats are according to StatCast from MLB:

• Athletics ... 100% of games NRFI
• Twins ... 100%
• Royals ... 100%
• Mariners ... 90%
• Blue Jays ... 88.9%
• Red Sox ... 88.9%
• Padres ... 88.9%
• Dodgers ... 88.9%
• Orioles ... 88.9%
• Cubs ... 88.9%

Note: This is through the first two weeks or so of the MLB season. Beware of small sample size. Trends are more important across multiple seasons. For example, of the 10 teams listed above, only the Orioles finished in the top five in NRFI for the 2025 MLB season.

Typically, run scoring is DOWN in April, as the temperatures favor pitching and cause the baseball to travel less distance in the cold air. This just in: the United States is currently cold. Like a forgotten popsicle hidden in the back corner of your freezer. I hope it's grape.

World Series rematch: LAD vs TOR

The last time the Blue Jays and Dodgers played it resulted in one of the greatest baseball games in history. In an epic extra-inning battle in Game 7 of the 2025 World Series, it seemed every few moments a new hero was emerging, and a new goat was being identified. Emotions swung back and forth like a pendulum in a grandfather clock. Ultimately, the Dodgers triumphed and secured their place as a dynasty.

Are the Blue Jays missing Bo Bichette? So far, through nine games, Canada's favorite nine has plated just 34 runs. Bichette was allowed to sign with the Mets last offseason, creating a Maple Leaf-sized hole in the Toronto lineup. But it's more than just No Bo that's creating a dearth of runs in Ontario.

Jays struggle against left-handed pitching

The Jays have ONE home run this season against a left-handed pitcher. The team has a .302 SLG against southpaws. That's worse than bad. It's worse than terrible. It's feckless, non-threatening, and abysmal. Pull any words from the thesaurus you want, they probably fit.

It's confounding that Toronto is struggling against LHP, when you remember that Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are in the lineup. But, here we are almost two weeks into the season, and the Blue Jays lineup is scuffling.

Important to note that the Dodgers will start left-hander Justin Wrobleski on Monday night. For his career, Wrobleski has a 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio against right-handed hitters. Last fall in the World Series, Toronto managed zero runs and struck out six times in 15 times at the plate versus Wrobleski.

• Dodgers at Blue Jays, NRFI: +100 from DraftKings

MIN vs DET: Why the Twins can't score in the first inning

What do we make of the Minnesota Twins? The franchise seems stuck in the mud of the Mississippi River that splits St. Paul from Minneapolis. The uninspired Twins have been spinning about 6-7 games above or below the .500 mark since 2021. Every season they remake the roster, shuffle new pitchers onto the team, and...disappoint.

In 2026, the Twins have yet to score a run in the first inning. The team is 3-6, and four of its six losses have come when the lineup scored exactly one run across nine innings. Minnesota is on pace to score its fewest runs since 2013, when Ron Gardenhire was still squeezing himself into a uniform.

Why are the Twins swinging and missing so much? Minnesota is on pace to challenge its team record for strikeouts, set in 2023, which also happens to be the MLB single-season mark, at 1,654. That's about 10 per game, which means opposing teams are limiting the Twins to about 27-28 balls in play each game. That's an easy way to lose a lot of games if you're the Twins.

The top of the order is Austin Martin, Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall, and cleanup man Matt Wallner. So far, Buxton and Keaschall are combining to hit .182, and Wallner has struck out 18 times in nine games.

How desperate are the Twins? This team is starting Kody Clemens at first base. A 30-year old nepo baby who wouldn't hit the water if he was pushed out of a catamaran.

The Tigers are similarly struggling to score runs, but that's not unexpected. In each of the last two seasons, playoff appearances have disguised the weaknesses of the Tigers. The lineup is mediocre, with several hitters in the lineup that are poor at making adjustments, refuse to make adjustments, or don't care if they should make adjustments. The Tigers have been shut out twice already, and manager A.J. Hinch is searching for the appropriate batters to situate at the top of his lineup.

Detroit has used four different leadoff batters and four different No. 3 hitters in the first nine games of the 2026 season. The first inning seems like an experiment for the Tigers. Luckily, the division is weak, and Detroit has top-flight pitching.

I suspect no runs in the first between these two paper tiger offenses tonight in Minneapolis.

• Tigers at Twins, NRFI: -170 from DraftKings

Bet $170 to win $100 if the Twins and Tigers combine for zero runs in the opening inning this evening.