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MLB Wild Card Series Best Bets (Sept. 29): Phillies-Braves, White Sox-Astros and Top HR Picks for Tuesday

Publish Date: Sep 29, 2026
Fact checked by: Matt Moreno
Key Points
  • Phillies-Braves is a strong under play with both offenses struggling and two elite southpaws taking the mound.
  • On the contrary, White Sox-Astros is a good over play with both offenses hot and bullpen games expected on both sides.

The MLB postseason is here, and the Wild Card round gives bettors a pair of interesting matchups Tuesday.

While the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves feature two elite starting pitchers and struggling offenses, the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros enter their matchup swinging the bats well.

Yordan Alvarez #44 of the Houston Astros hits a solo home run in the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Daikin Park on March 27, 2026 in Houston, Texas.

(Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Here are the best bets for Tuesday's Wild Card Series action.

You can find all odds used in my MLB predictions at DraftKings and FanDuel.

We have gathered a convenient list of the best sports betting offers here where you can find more MLB and sports betting promotions.

MLB Wild Card Series Best Bets: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

The Phillies and Braves enter the postseason with two offenses that have been trending in the wrong direction, which makes the Under 7 the best bet in this matchup.

Over the last two weeks, the Phillies rank 24th in MLB in OPS, while the Braves rank 18th. Neither lineup has been particularly productive at the plate recently, and Tuesday's pitching matchup could make things even more difficult.

Both teams have also struggled against left-handed pitching this season. The Braves rank 21st in MLB in OPS against lefties, while the Phillies rank 16th.

That sets up well for both starting pitchers.

Atlanta will send Chris Sale to the mound, while Philadelphia counters with Jesus Luzardo. Both left-handers have put together excellent seasons and enter the postseason with numbers that suggest runs could be difficult to come by.

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Sale owns a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, while Luzardo has posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

The matchup history also favors the pitching side.

Luzardo has dominated the current Braves hitters throughout his career, allowing just a .190 batting average against them. Even more impressive, Braves hitters have managed only one home run in 179 at-bats against Luzardo.

Sale has also had success against Philadelphia's lineup. Phillies hitters have a career .209 batting average and .328 slugging percentage against him.

Put it all together, and this is a matchup where both the recent offensive struggles and the starting pitching point toward a lower-scoring game.

My Best Bet: Alternate Under 7 (-135 via DraftKings)

With both offenses cold over the last two weeks, both lineups struggling against left-handed pitching and two starters capable of controlling the game, the under is the play. As of late Monday, 6.5 is where the books are at, but seven is considered a key number in baseball so we're going to buy the half run here.

MLB Wild Card Series Best Bets: Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

The second Wild Card Series matchup offers a completely different outlook.

While the Phillies and Braves have struggled offensively, the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros enter Tuesday swinging hot bats, making the Over 8 an attractive play.

The Astros have been the hottest offense in baseball over the past two weeks, leading MLB with an .856 team OPS during that stretch. Houston has also crushed the ball, leading the league with 29 home runs over the last two weeks.

The White Sox aren't far behind.

Chicago ranks sixth in MLB with a .775 OPS over that same span, giving both teams offenses that are coming into the postseason with plenty of momentum.

The pitching situation also creates an opportunity for runs. There should be plenty of opportunities for players like Munetaka Murakami, Yordan Alvarez, Miguel Vargas, Yainer Diaz and others to be productive on Tuesday.

Both teams are expected to use planned bullpen days rather than rely on a traditional starting pitcher. Neither bullpen has been particularly dominant, either.

According to Insidethepen.com, the White Sox rank 16th in MLB with a 3.86 ERA, while the Astros rank 11th with a 4.14 ERA.

My Best Bet: Over 8 (-117 via DraftKings)

With two hot offenses facing average bullpens and neither team leaning on a traditional starter, there is a path for this game to get over 8.

Home Run Play of the Day

Best bet: Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+330 via FanDuel)

If you're looking for a home run prop to add to Tuesday's card, Yordan Alvarez at +330 via FanDuel stands out.

Alvarez is coming off a historic regular season in which he hit .316 with 42 home runs, and he enters the postseason swinging a hot bat.

In September, Alvarez posted a 1.009 OPS with five home runs, continuing to produce at an elite level heading into the playoffs.

The matchup against Chicago also provides plenty of reason for optimism. Alvarez is hitting .278 with a .935 OPS against White Sox pitching.

Alvarez In The Playoffs

Then there's his postseason track record.

Alvarez has been one of baseball's most dangerous postseason hitters throughout his career, hitting 12 home runs with a .944 OPS in 224 playoff at-bats.

His home-road splits are another positive indicator for Tuesday's game in Houston. Alvarez has posted a 1.169 OPS at home, compared with a .897 OPS on the road.

That combination of recent production, matchup history, postseason success and strong home splits makes Alvarez an intriguing long-shot home run option.

At +330, the price provides enough value to make Alvarez the home run pick of the day.

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