MLB World Series Odds Update: Does Tarik Skubal Injury Shake Up Championship Race?

Pitching injuries are becoming as common as feuds between social media divas. Every week we get news of it, and every week it isn't all that surprising.

Monday it was announced that ace starter Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers will undergo surgery on his pitching elbow. The two-time American League Cy Young Award winner is likely to miss three months.

That places Detroit in a tough situation as it struggles to fill out a rotation that is already missing All-Star Casey Mize, who went on the injured list last week with a right adductor strain. Without Skubal and Mize, the Tigers and manager A.J. Hinch will be pressed into relying on untested young pitchers. Or the Tigers may have to swing a trade to acquire a proven starting pitcher.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

Sunday, and again on Monday, Hinch employed his "pitching chaos" strategy, starting relief pitcher Tyler Holton on consecutive days. That method, where Hinch uses most of his bullpen in an unpredictable manner, has led to a 25-35 record since 2023.

If the Tigers are going to sneak into the postseason again, as they did in the past two seasons, they will need to rely less on tricks like "pitching chaos" and more on established pitchers who can get outs and eat up innings.

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World Series odds drop Tigers following Skubal injury

The news of Skubal's injury has changed the odds for the Tigers to win the AL Central and make the playoffs. But, according to bet365, odds for Detroit to win the World Series did not change, as of Tuesday. The oddsmakers at bet365 list the Tigers at +1800 to win the next Fall Classic.

However, FanDuel shifted its odds Monday evening, moving Detroit from +2200 to +2700 on the World Series market:

World Series Winner Odds

• Los Angeles Dodgers ... +190
• New York Yankees ... +500
• Atlanta Braves ... +1200
• Seattle Mariners ... +1200
• Chicago Cubs ... +1400
• Philadelphia Phillies ... +2200
• Texas Rangers ... +2200
• Toronto Blue Jays ... +2500
• Detroit Tigers ... +2700

bet365 lists Detroit at +160 to win the AL Central, which is the same odds as those for Cleveland. That figure remains unchanged from last week. Though a few other sportsbooks have shifted Detroit to closer to +200 to win the AL Central. Detroit has not won a division title since 2014.

At FanDuel, the oddsmakers moved Detroit from -110 to make the playoffs to +100. That sportsbook did lengthen odds on the Tigers to win the 2026 World Series, from +2000 to +2700.

According to FanGraphs, Detroit's chances of making the playoffs fell from 68.8% to 66.2% in light of the Skubal surgery news. Chances the Tigers will win the division fell from 69.3% to 65.7%. Not much of a change for those projections.

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Future for two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Skubal uncertain

Skubal could return from his surgery as soon as late July or early August, under optimistic timelines. The type of surgery he is reportedly undergoing is not a radical tendon procedure like Tommy John surgery. It's being characterized as a "cleanup" of some loose materials in his left elbow.

In 2025, Skubal started 31 games, posting a league-low 2.21 ERA, and a league-best 2.45 FIP. He struck out a career-best 248 batters. Over the last two seasons, the big southpaw logged 397.1 innings in the regular season, and nearly 40 more in the playoffs. This season, Skubal started seven games and had a 2.70 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 43.1 innings.

Complicating the issue for Skubal and Detroit is the pitcher's impending free agency. At the end of the 2026 season, Skubal can hit the free agency market for the first time. The Tigers reportedly explored offering their ace a long-term contract last year, but otherwise the team seems resigned to losing Skubal.

With an injured elbow, even if he comes back and pitches, Skubal may be viewed as damaged goods. He could be facing a much less lucrative market for his services next winter. the lefty will turn 30 in November, which also makes Skubal an old first-time free agent. Most analysis reveals that pitchers peak at age 28-29, and regress in their 30s.

In the recent past, a few free agents have had to accept one-year deals after suffering injuries that clouded their future. Shortstop Carlos Correa took a $35 million one-year deal in 2022 after physicals revealed an undisclosed leg injury. He played well in 2023 for his new team, recording more than 5 Wins Above Replacement, and inked a nine-year mega-millions contract. Now Skubal may need to settle for a high-value, short contract in 2027 to prove himself after this surgery. If he pitches well, he can enter the free agent market again before the 2028 season.