Monday Night Football Best Bets: Eagles vs. Bears Odds & Predictions (Sept. 28)

The outlook for tonight’s Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears Monday Night Football (MNF) game took a turn with injuries to Caleb Williams and Tyson Bagent (his backup), forcing the Bears to go with their third-string quarterback, journeyman Case Keenum. However, that doesn’t necessarily make ‘Eagles to win’ the Best Bet.

So, what are the best bets for MNF tonight? I’ll go over my picks in a moment, but first, let’s take a look at the betting line for the game.

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Betting Odds for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears on MNF (Week 3)

Here is the betting line for tonight’s Eagles vs. Bears game on Monday Night Football with odds via DraftKings:

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears

• Spread: Philadelphia -3.5 (-115) | Chicago +3.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Philadelphia -192 | Chicago +160
• Total: O/U 41.5 (-115/-105)

When the line opened, the Bears were small home favorites at -1.5 (-105), and the total was set at 46.5. But the line was undoubtedly impacted by the injuries to Williams and Bagent. With the Bears forced to start their QB3, expectations for the offense are lower, likely leading to the five-point drop in the total.

But are we being fair to the Bears and Case Keenum? Yes, he has not started an NFL game since the 2023 season during his second stint with the Houston Texans. He went 1-1 in those games with an OT win over the Tennessee Titans and a loss to the Cleveland Browns.

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He went 34-for-53 for 291 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. While he hasn’t defeated the Eagles before, Keenum nearly pulled off the upset in a 2019 start for the Washington Commanders. He went 30-for-44 for 380 yards and three touchdowns (117.6 passer rating).

But that was ages ago, and he was on a different team playing a different Eagles squad. So what, right? Well, it does show that he can play great football given the right opportunity and circumstances.

Does he have them tonight?

MNF Best Bets: Eagles vs. Bears

The Bears enter the game with the No. 1 offense in the NFL according to total yards (424.5 yards per game), powered by the league’s best rushing attack (212.5 yards per game) and a complementary passing game (212 yards per game).

In regard to scoring, they are currently tied for third with 31 points per game. But that stat is a little misleading since they scored 59 in Week 1 and just three last week. I know what you’re thinking: Isn’t that when Williams went down? Yes, but he didn’t get hurt until midway through the fourth quarter.

So, I can’t help but wonder just how good this offense really is and how much of a difference a change at quarterback is going to make. Maybe inserting a 38-year-old veteran could be a good thing? It’s not ideal, of course, against a group ranked No. 7 in total defense (293 yards per game allowed), No. 2 against the pass (166 yards per game allowed), and tied for No. 12 in scoring (21 points per game allowed).

For the Bears, the bigger concern may be figuring out how to contain Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

To be fair, Hurts doesn’t have overly impressive stats this season (40-for-62 for 467 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions; 12 carries for 62 yards rushing). Barkley has 100 total yards from scrimmage off 19 carries and four receptions. He missed most of the game last week due to an injury early in the win.

But while their stat lines have not been too impressive, Hurts and Barkley have developed reputations as playmakers. They (and the Eagles in general, for that matter) know how to win games. Their first two games of the season are proof of that.

My Pick:  Eagles -2.5 First Half (-118, DraftKings)

Since the Eagles nearly lost to the Washington Commanders (24-22) and Tennessee Titans (24-20), it's not hard to make a solid case for the Bears to pull off an upset. However, as both of those wins show, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni knows how to win games, even the ugly ones.

But the Eagles offense hasn't been very impressive again this season and has gotten off to slow starts. They have yet to score in the first quarter, but average 14 in the second quarter and led both games at the half (14-10 vs. Tennessee; 14-9 vs. Washington).

I’d be shocked if Bears head coach Ben Johnson puts enough faith in his QB3 to turn Keenum loose. It’s more likely he calls a conservative game with the intent to minimize the possibility of mistakes by his third-string quarterback impacting the game.

With one of the better offensive lines in the league, it makes sense for Chicago to lean on the run. But I expect the Bears offense to struggle in the first half as it will take time for Keenum to regain his bearings. So, I’m not expecting much from the Bears on offense in the first half. But we’ll see enough from Hurts and the Eagles offense for Philly to be up by at least three at the break.

Over 41.5  (-110, DraftKings)

I don’t trust either team enough to pick one to win or cover. Philly made the Titans look good last week — the Titans! The Bears offense is a question mark with Keenum at QB. But with their offensive line, they should be able to run on the Eagles' defense. Washington had 132 yards on the ground and Tennessee had 122 yards vs. the Philadelphia defense.

Because of the run game, I can see the Bears being competitive in this game. One of the best ways to defend against Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley is to keep them on the sideline. However, if the Bears struggle as they did against the Vikings, the Eagles could clear 41.5 on their own. After all, Bryce Young and the Panthers scored 59 on the Bears' defense.

We haven't seen that version of the Eagles offense yet this season. There is no guarantee they can reach that level against the Bears.

It's more likely we see the version of the Eagles offense we saw in Weeks 1 and 2. It will not be pretty, but they will do enough to score in the mid-20s tonight. Maybe I'm putting too much faith in Keenum and the Bears' run game. But I expect both teams to score in the mid-20s, pushing the final score OVER this total.

Under 7.5, First Quarter (-125, DraftKings)

There will be  learning curve for the Bears offense with Keenum behind center. It would not be shocking to see the Bears offense struggle and Chicago not get on the board in the first quarter. Philly has yet to score in the first quarter. The Eagles may score in the first quarter since the offense will probably be on the field more.

But their slow starts against the Titans and Commanders make more than one touchdown unlikely.