On Monday, May 12, the NBA playoffs rage on with two games and one from each conference.
In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors are hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves.
(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Here's how that series has gone thus far:
- Game 1: Warriors 99, Timberwolves 88
- Game 2: Timberwolves 117, Warriors 93
- Game 3: Timberwolves 102, Warriors 97
Of course, Warriors guard Steph Curry has been out since Game 1 and will also be out for Game 4. This could allow the Timberwolves to take a commanding 3-1 lead before he returns.
Then, in the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks are hosting the Boston Celtics. The Knicks lead that series 2-1, and here's how that's gone:
- Game 1: Knicks 108, Celtics 105
- Game 2: Knicks 91, Celtics 90
- Game 3: Celtics 115-93
For the Celtics, Sam Hauser is day-to-day with an ankle injury. The Knicks' report is clean.
Below, I'll provide my best bets tonight for these NBA games.
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NBA Best Bets Today:
- Timberwolves -5.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Celtics -6.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Timberwolves -5.5
On the road, the Timberwolves are favorites against the Warriors at -5.5. With Curry out, I feel confident enough to take them against the spread.
In Game 3, the Warriors shot 43.2% from the field (35 of 81). They shot pretty well from 3-point range, but only put up 23 of them and converted 10 (43.5%).
As for the Timberwolves, they shot 43.9% from the floor (36 of 82) and 38.2% from 3-point range (13 of 34).
Both teams were identical from the free-throw line (17 of 21; 81%).
The Timberwolves won the rebound battle with 44-36, including 13-12 in offensive and 31-24 on defensive boards.
The Warriors were slightly better in the paint, outscoring Minneosta 48-46, but without Curry, we're seeing plenty of holes in this roster.
Jimmy Butler was excellent, scoring 33 points and adding seven assists and seven boards in over 43 minutes.
However, after him, just look at these stat lines:
- Draymond Green: 2 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds in 29 minutes
- Brandin Podziemski: 5 points, 2 assists, 8 rebounds in 39 minutes
- Gary Payton II: 2 points, 1 rebound in 26 minutes
After Butler, the team got 30 points from Jonathan Kuminga, but besides Butler and Kuminga, only one other player, Buddy Hield, had double-digit points (14).
Hield also added five assists and four rebounds.
As for the Timberwolves, they also only had three players with double-digit points, but the rest of the team contributed in other ways.
Also, it's helpful when one of your stars, Julius Randle, posts a 24-point, 12-assist, 10-rebound triple-double.
Anthony Edwards added 36 points in 44 minutes.
The Timberwolves took more shots overall and sank a few more 3-point shots after attempting 11 more of them than Golden State.
Sure, one could say that the Warriors were extremely close to winning that game despite poor performances, but I'd argue that, if you get 30 points from Kuminga off the bench and lose, I'm not too sure how many more games you'll get a performance like that.
For context, this season, he's had 30 points or more in just three games.
The team needs to figure out what to do with Podziemski. He plays good minutes and the contributions haven't been there this postseason.
He's had no more than 11 points in any of his last five games despite playing 29 minutes or more in each contest.
Without Curry, this Warriors team is in a bad way.
Timberwolves win and cover.
Celtics -6.5
After taking the favorite between Golden State and Minnesota, I'll round out my best NBA bets with another favorite, taking the Celtics -6.5 on the road against the Knicks.
The Knicks were able to snag the first two games, but as we saw in Game 3, I think a shift is happening.
In that game, the Celtics shot 40 of 83 from the floor (48.2%) and 20 of 40 from 3-point range (50%).
They also made 15 of 17 free throws (88.2%).
They may have lost the rebound battle (43-42), but they moved the ball around well with 23 assists compared to the Knicks' 16.
The Celtics are certainly a team that's a bit reliant on the 3-point shot and this can be an Achilles heel of theirs.
However, when the shots are falling, they're impossible to stop.
They beat the Knicks in Game 3 by 22 points despite losing the points battle in the paint 48-34.
They lost in Game 2 by one point despite shooting just 25% from 3-point range.
This season, the Celtics are shooting 36.7% from beyond the arc. Over their last three, that's down to 32.1%, which includes a 50% outburst in Game 3.
I certainly expect it to get a bit closer to the mean, but still, they've kept games close despite poor 3-point showings.
For example, if they shot 36.7% from 3-point range in Game 2, sticking with the same number of attempts, they would've made between 14 and 15 shots.
Even on the lowest end of 14, they still win that game 102-91—and an 11-point gap—and they're probably favored in this one by double digits.
The Celtics are going to storm back and win this series in six games.
Get them at a value while they're on the road.
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