NBA Best Bets Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors (April 5): Stephen Curry Expected To Make Return

The Houston Rockets are scheduled to take on the Golden State Warriors in San Francisco, Calif. tonight at the Chase Center, with tipoff at 10 p.m. EST. But this game is more than just some late-season Western Conference matchup between a playoff-bound team and a play-in one.

Why? Because it marks the long-awaited return of Stephen Curry to the Golden State lineup.

(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/NBAE via Getty Images)

That’s a great thing for the game, of course, and will drive viewership, but will he have an impact on the outcome and how bettors should approach the game? Let’s explore the possible answers to both questions.

How Much of an Impact Should Fans Expect From Stephen Curry Tonight?

Stephen Curry, even though he is no longer a youngster, is still one of the most exciting and marketable players in the game today. Fans love to see him play, and after being out for the last 27 games, many will undoubtedly be eager to see him back on the court tonight against a good Rockets team.

Historically, playing Houston has been good for Curry. In 46 games (playoffs and regular season), his Warriors are 28-18, and he has averaged 24 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.7 rebounds per game. However, Houston’s defense has been successful in disrupting him. In the Nov. 26 game in San Francisco, the Rockets held him to 14 points (4 for 13 from the floor, 2 for 9 from 3-point range, six rebounds, and five assists while forcing seven turnovers.

Curry did not play in Golden State’s second game against the Rockets. But what can we expect tonight?

He’s had big games in the past when returning from injuries. But when the layoff has been longer, the immediate results are inconsistent. Yes, the Warriors are a better team with him on the court. However, after long layoffs, it is natural for players to have some rust to knock off, even the great ones like Curry.

There will be an emotional boost with his return coming at home, but bettors would be wise to temper expectations. Curry has exploded when returning from injury in the past, but it is more likely that he will have a modest performance than a game-changing one.

Rockets vs. Warriors Odds & Pick

• Spread: Rockets -4 (-111) | Warriors +4 (-120)
• Moneyline: Rockets -172 | Warriors +140
• TOTAL: O/U 226.5 (-116/-116)

Odds via Fanatics

The Rockets come into this game on a roll, winning five in a row. They’ve been the fifth-highest scoring team in the NBA during that small stretch, averaging 124.6 points per game. Golden State, in comparison, has averaged 111.4 points per game.

Defensive has been Houston’s calling card all season; in the last five games, it has allowed 109.9 points per game. Only the Pistons, Thunder, and Celtics have been better. Golden State has allowed 115.1 points per game (13th best).

As for Golden State, the Warriors have suffered in Curry’s absence, going 9 for 18 in those 27 games. The offense has been sloppy at times and inconsistent. A long list of other players missing time with various injuries has contributed to the Warriors' woes. The roster is still far from healthy with Al Horford and Quinten Post ruled out for tonight.

But the only story that matters Sunday is the return of Stephen Curry and how or whether he’ll impact the Warriors right away. Chances are good that his return will make it better, but the difference in his first game back after such a long layoff is usually not extraordinary. While Steve Kerr has not said he’ll be limiting Curry’s minutes, it would not be a bad idea for him to do so.

The last thing the Warriors need is to get him back only to lose him again before the play-in game.

My NBA Pick: Rockets ML

Houston has been a team hard to trust this season, which is why I’m passing on laying the points. It would not be shocking to see the Rockets win, but for their defense to falter and fail to cover. Curry is a concern, of course, but with Jimmy Buttler out for the season, he’s all the Warriors have.

But after 27 games off at 38 years old, I doubt Curry will explode tonight. He’ll make Golden State better when he’s in the game, but he’ll likely play maybe 25 minutes. With Houston relatively healthy, there is no reason why they should lose this game.

Rockets vs. Warriors Player Props

• Steph Curry, UNDER 19.5 Points (-125)

A player like Curry is always capable of exploding for a big night, no matter who the opponent is. But after such a long layoff, it is going to take him some time to find his shot during a live game, especially against a good defense like Houston’s.

Curry is not a ball hog, so I expect him to take his shots, but not so many that someone else, i.e., Kristaps Porzingis, can’t find his rhythm. The Rockets held him to 14 earlier in the season; expect a similar number today.

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• Steph Curry, OVER 3.5 Assists (-115)

He has averaged 4.8 per game this season, but I expect him to look for his teammates tonight as much as he looks for himself. My only concern is that Steve Kerr will limit Curry’s minutes in an effort to preserve him for the play-in game. However, 3.5 is a small number. As long as he sees 25 minutes, he’ll go over it.

• Steph Curry, UNDER 3.5 Made 3s (-165)

Curry is absolutely capable of going over this number, but Houston has been playing solid perimeter defense over their last five games, allowing 12.4 made threes per game (fifth-best) at 35.2% (sixth-best). He’ll take his shots, but in his first game back after 27 off, don’t expect much from him.