On Tuesday, April 22, the NBA postseason continues with three games.
- Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies
- Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves
(Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Pacers, Thunder, and Timberwolves currently hold a 1-0 series lead. This includes two home teams (Pacers and Thunder) and one road team (Timberwolves).
The Lakers are coming off a 117-95 loss.
The Pacers beat the Bucks 117-98, and the Thunder pulverized the Grizzlies 131-80.
Below, I’ll be providing the best bets tonight for each of these games.
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NBA Best Bets Today:
- Indiana Pacers -4 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Pacers -4
Kicking off my list of the best bets today is the Pacers -4 on the point spread.
Looking over the past three games, this is a case of a high-powered offense against a solid defense.
Over their past three games, the Bucks are averaging 119.3 points per game (4th), are shooting 48.5% from the floor (6th), 40.8% from 3-point range (2nd), and 54.9% on 2-point shots (tied for 8th).
As a defense, they're allowing 123.0 points per game (4th) over their last three. They're also giving up a shooting percentage of 49.5% (7th), 40.2% on 3-point shots (3rd), and 57.7% on 2-point shots (8th).
Conversely, the Pacers defense has been solid, especially against 3-point shots.
Over their last three games, they're allowing 115.0 points per game (tied for 12th), a shooting percentage of 45.1% (22nd), 31.0% on 3-point shots (28th), and 56.8% on 2-point shots (tied for 9th).
The Pacers 3-point defense matters a lot in this series as the Bucks are averaging 40 3-point attempts per game over their last three.
In Game 1, the Bucks shot just 9 of 37 from 3-point range (24.3%).
Some other statistics favor the Pacers, including total rebounds (59.3) and possessions (111.5) per game over their last three.
The massive loss for the Bucks came despite Giannis Antetokounmpo putting up 36 points and 12 rebounds.
I think the Bucks will improve a bit beyond the arc from Game 1, but I don't think it will be enough.
I expect the Pacers to get it done and cover by four points at home.
Thunder -14.5
At this point, I'm convinced the Thunder are just going to obliterate everyone.
Coming off a 51-point win in Game 1, the spread here is -14.5, favoring Oklahoma City.
Over their last three games, the Thunder are averaging 130.3 points per game (3rd) and shooting 49.5% from the floor (3rd), 33.8% from 3-point range (tied for 18th), and 65.1% on 2-point shots (1st).
The Grizzlies are allowing a shooting percentage of 60.6% on 2-point shots over their last three. In Game 1, they allowed the Thunder to shoot 64.7% on such shots.
Also in Game 1, the Thunder shot 35.4% from 3-point range. Over their last three, it's below 34%. It's not a great percentage, but they shoot a bunch of these shots.
The Thunder are averaging 49.3 3-point shots per game over their last three, which is 10 more on average per game compared to the season as a whole.
In Game 1, the Thunder had six players score double-digit points, including 21 from Aaron Wiggins and 20 from Jalen Williams.
Grizzlies star Ja Morant was held to just 17 points in 26 minutes. I expect him to do more in Game 2 as he'll play more minutes due to the game not being a 51-point blowout.
It's also worth mentioning that the Thunder have won eight of their last 10 games by 15 points or more.
As a home favorite, the Thunder are 28-12-2 against the spread, covering 70% of the time.
Lastly, consider this: Over their last three games, the Grizzlies led the NBA in turnovers per game with 18.7.
Timberwolves +5.5
The Timberwolves won Game 1, 117-95.
In that game, Jaden McDaniels had 25 points, nine rebounds, and two assists. Anthony Edwards had 22 points, eight rebounds, nine assists, and shot 4 of 9 from 3-point range.
For the Lakers, Luka Doncic was excellent with 37 points and eight rebounds.
Austin Reaves had 16, and LeBron James had 19.
Looking at the bench, they scored a combined 13 points.
The Lakers have the best player in Doncic, but overall, the Timberwolves have more depth and are playing better.
Over their last three games, the Timberwolves are shooting 50.6% from the floor (second) and 60.0% on 2-point shots (second).
In that same span, they've committed just 11.7 turnovers (third-least) and allowed 97.0 points (second-least) per game.
The Lakers are shooting well from 3-point range lately (40.6%), but the Timberwolves are holding teams to 34.7% (16th) over their last three games.
Something intriguing is the Timberwolves slowing things down, averaging 95 possessions per game over their last three.
Against the Lakers, which is an older squad overall, I'd try to up the tempo and let McDaniels do even more. Edwards will continue to scor,e and Naz Reid is excellent off the bench.
The Lakers are 21-12 as a home favorite (63.6%) while the Timberwolves are 10-5 as a road underdog (66.7%).
I'll take the Timberwolves here. I think they'll go up 2-0 in this series. Doncic cannot do it alone.
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