The NBA has a massive slate of games on Friday, April 11, with 15 games on the docket. The slate kicks off with three games, including the Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons, and closes with the Houston Rockets on the road against the Los Angeles Lakers.
(Photo by Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images)
This slate is the penultimate game for all NBA teams in the regular season, with the final games coming on Sunday.
Below, I’ll cover my three best bets tonight for this slate.
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NBA Best Bets Today:
- Bucks +6 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Pacers vs Magic Over 216 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Nets +19.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Bucks +6
Kicking things off for my best NBA bets tonight are the Bucks at +6. This game between them and the Detroit Pistons has some intriguing Eastern Conference seeding implications as they play against each other twice to close out the season,n and the Bucks are ahead by two games.
That said, I'm going with the Bucks at +6. Let's discuss why.
The injury report certainly favors the Pistons. They're without Jaden Ivey, while the Bucks will be without Jericho Sims (thumb), Damian Lillard (calf), and potentially Tyler Smith, who's day-to-day (ankle).
However, the Bucks have started to get things going, winning six straight.
As a road underdog, the Bucks are 9-7-1 against the spread (56.3%), while the Pistons are 8-12 (40%) against the spread as a home favorite.
Also, the Bucks are 4-0 in their last four games against the spread as road underdogs.
Over the last three games, the Bucks are averaging 119.0 points per game (8th) and are shooting 49.6% from the floor (6th).
Their 3-point shooting percentage is down (36.3% over their last three) compared to their season-long mark (38.4%), but against the New Orleans Pelicans yesterday, they shot 40% from beyond the arc.
Over the last three games, the Bucks defense has held opponents to 107.0 points per game (27th), a shooting percentage of 44.6% from the floor (27th), and 33.3% from beyond the arc (tied for 24th).
I recognize the Pistons have been playing some great defense as well, holding teams to the same 33.3% from beyond the arc and 53.1% on 2-point shots (26th), but their offense hasn't been what the Bucks has been lately.
I expect this to be a gritty game, with the Bucks ultimately covering despite the absence of Lillard.
Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic: Under 216 (-110)
With the Pacers win yesterday over the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks loss to the Pistons, the Pacers have a legitimate shot at catching the Knicks and overtaking the No. 3 seed.
The Pacers have been red hot, winning six straight, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Here, they're favored by 7.5 points against a Magic squad that's 40-40, 8-2 in their last 10 games, and have won four straight. They're slotted as the No. 7 in the Eastern Conference.
Looking at the injury report, the Pacers shouldn't have much to worry about.
These are the players on the Magic injury report: Moritz Wagner (out for the season), Jalen Suggs (out for the season), Cory Joseph (questionable), Franz Wagner (questionable), Wendell Carter Jr. (questionable), Paolo Banchero (questionable), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (questionable).
As for the Pacers, Ben Sheppard is day-to-day with a toe injury.
If Caldwell-Pope, Wagner, Banchero, and Carter Jr. sit, that's four of the Magic's starting five.
Even with so many potential absences for the Magic, I'm going to avoid the spread here and take the under at 216.
While both teams are 8-2 over their last 10 and on some winning streaks, neither offense has been playing particularly well.
Over their last three games, the Magic are averaging just 108.0 points (25th) per game, while the Pacers are at 114.3 (16th).
Additionally, their defenses have held opponents to 110.0 points per game or less over that same stretch, led by the Magic's 95.0 points allowed per outing.
The Pacers are a more up-tempo team, averaging 102.8 possessions per game (10th) over their last three, but the Magic are down to just 95.8, second-least in the NBA.
There's too much going against the game to think enough points to go over 216 will be scored.
Nets +19.5
For the last of my best NBA point spread bets today, I will hold my nose and take Brooklyn at +19.5.
They let me down yesterday, losing to the Atlanta Hawks at home by 24, but I think they can do enough to cover here.
The injury report is certainly one-sided. The Timberwolves have no players listed, while the Nets have six listed, including D'Angelo Russell, who's day-to-day, Cameron Johnson, who's day-to-day, and Day'Ron Sharpe, who's also day-to-day.
Against the Hawks, Jalen Wilson put up 20, Tosan Evbuomwam added 18, and Tyson Etienne contributed 16.
We have some recent data for the Nets against the Timberwolves as they played on April 3 in Brooklyn. The Nets lot 105-90, putting them within this 19.5-point range, but this time, they're in Minnesota.
The Nets have actually been great on the road against the spread, though, going 24-12-1 (66.7%).
The Timberwolves are 13-21 against the spread as a home favorite.
Over their last three games, the Timberwolves allow teams to shoot 39.3% from 3-point range (tied for 7th) and 49.2% from the floor (8th).
The Nets will have a chance to make some shots. No, I don't think they'll win, but the Timberwolves have been up and down recently, scoring 114 or less in three of their last four games.
Again, this is a "hold your nose" spot, rounding out my NBA best bets.
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