
It's Monday, and there's a full slate of NBA games on this evening! With 11 games on the schedule, there are some big matchups ahead! In a battle for the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics are -9.5 point favorites vs the Milwaukee Bucks at home. Coming off a day of rest, can the Celtics catch the Bucks, who are coming off a back-to-back?
(Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
In a bizarre yet chaotic ending against the 76ers, can the Pacers avoid a three-game skid against the Magic? Unable to secure a victory of Philadelphia in overtime, Indiana finds themselves as +5.5 underdogs tonight vs Orlando. Below is a complete list of the updated FanDuel odds for the Monday NBA matchups:
Looking to stay hot, I've provided my top plays, which include a combination of spread, moneyline, and player prop bets. If you're tailing my bets, I've placed all of them within FanDuel Sportsbook as straight bets. Keeping bank roll management in mind, I wagered one unit on each bet.
With the earliest tip-off scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, all matchups will air on NBA League Pass. Now that we've covered the odds, let's take a took into my 3 best bets for Monday, October 28.
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My best totals bet for today, I placed one unit on the Lakers and Suns to total over 226.5 points for -110 odds on FanDuel. It was just a few days ago, the Lakers defeated the Suns 123-116 at home. Undefeated for the first time since 2010, the Lakers were largely backed by Anthony Davis, who finished with 35 points. Thanks to LeBron James 17 second half points, and 26 from Austin Reeves, the Lakers were able to erase a 22 point deficit.
Overall, I do believe the total is a tad low and should increase as the day goes on. Both teams are stacked talent wise, especially the Lakers. With a fairly healthy squad, head coach JJ Redick has a ton of depth to work with. With four players reaching points in double figures, the bench added 22.
I do believe the Lakers will come back down to earth today. Having played the Suns just two days ago, I doubt they will repeat a 53.3 % field goal percentage, and 51.9 three-point percentage. Aside from James and Davis, a healthy Austin Reeves, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, and Gabe Vincent have provided a much needed Spark for LA.
I do have to point out, rookie Dalton Knecht is truly looking like the steal of this year's NBA draft. Adding 8 points in the victory vs the Suns, Knecht has already solidified himself as a reliable sharpshooter off the bench.
With that said, how can we forget when Knecht let it fly from beyond the arc, right in the face of Kevin Durant? Shooting over 41.7 % from downtown, be on the lookout for prop bets. Undefeated at 3-0 on the season, the Lakers are an absolute offensive powerhouse. Ranking 6th in the NBA in overall scoring (121 PPG), the Lakers are the second best scoring team in the paint (60.7). Dominating the Suns 50-46 in the paint, we should see another tough battle ahead down low.
For the Suns, we've seen how offensively gifted they are, especially when the big 3 trio of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker are healthy. Establishing a 22 point lead, we saw the Sun hold a large 16 point lead after the first quarter. With four starters in double figures, Phoenix was extremely efficient, shooting 51.2 % from the floor, and 45.9 % from deep.
After a 30 bomb from Durant, the big 3 combined for 68 total points. With more depth than last season, Mike Budenholzer received 30 points from the bench.
Similar to the Lakers, the Suns are a top ten offensive team in the NBA, putting up 115.3 points per game. With the team shooting over 40 percent, they face the Lakers, who are middle of the road in terms of defense. If Bradley Beal is able to suit up, I love the chances for the over.
One of the strongest bets of today, the Lakers and Suns are two teams that get to the charity stripe quite frequently. Both averaging 29.3 free-throw attempts per game, LA and Phoenix are top 7 in free-throws made per game. Knowing that each of these teams combine for points from the line per game, I'll gladly lay the points on the over. The Lakers went 29-39 from the free-throw line Friday vs the Suns, which is an insane amount.
Phoenix has stepped up their game defensively, which was a different story in years past. However, they are 2-1 vs totals, and Friday's meeting totaled over the 228 point total. Coming in at 239 points, today's total line is the lowest it's been between both teams since November 2023. With the last three matchups all soaring over 226, I'm confident in this best bet today.
Overall, we've seen the offensive capability for the Lakers, putting up 131 vs the Kings, 123 against the Suns, and 110 vs Minnesota. After allowing the Kings to score nearly 130 points, this is a Lakers team that's allowed nearly 122 points over the last two matchups. Now they get a Suns squad, who's been fairly consistently offensively through the first three games.
The Lakers and Suns should have a competitive, mid scoring matchup, that is if Beal is able to suit up. Although they don't rank high in pace per game, expect the two sides to get to the line and battle in the paint. Ranking top ten in the NBA, the Lakers are shooting at a 49.6 % clip from the floor, and the Suns, 48.3 %. Nearly 45 percent of the Sun's shots were taken beyond the arc Friday against Los Angeles. If they can repeat this, I especially love the over.
Totaling over 226.5 points in 2/3 games this season, the Lakers will face the Sun on the road, who've also soared over this bet vs the Lakers and the Clippers. Contingent on injuries, take the over.
My second bet of today, I'm taking the Denver Nuggets to cover the -8 point spread against the Toronto Raptors on the road. Winless on the season, the 2023 NBA Champions are hardly recognizable. With a considerable 102-87 defeat vs the Thunder to kick start the season, is there trouble in paradise? Failing to secure a 109-104 victory against the Clippers, the Nuggets will make their annual trip to Toronto.
With a 1-2 record on the season, the Raptors haven't looked much better. Pulling out a 115-107 over the 76ers, Philadelphia's been without arguably their best star, Joel Embiid. With Kelly Olynyk, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Bruce Brown all listed as out or questionable for today's matchup, the Nuggets should be able to capitalize.
After a mid season roster shake up last season, the Raptors don't have a clear identity, at least in my opinion. Led by Scottie Barnes, the Raptors will need to rely on Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji to get it done in the backcourt. With four of their five potential starters under the age of 27, they are an extremely young team. Now they get the Nuggets, who have a core group of veterans, and championship winners.
With Quickley doubtful to lace up for today's matchup, the Raptors will find themselves very thin at the guard position. With Davion Mitchell slated to make his third start, the former Baylor standout has failed to make a difference on the offensive end. Truly lacking star power, sharpshooter Gradey Dick ranks second on the team in point per game (16.3).
Through the first three games of the NBA season, it's evident the Raptors don't produce a ton of offense, especially with the amount of injuries. Barely putting up 108 points per game, Toronto attempts the least amount of three-pointers per game. Struggling to hit beyond the arc, the Raptors schedule doesn't get any easier.
Sure, the Nuggets have struggled offensively, which is new for them. Defensively, they've been incredible, limiting opponents to 105.5 points per game. Excellent in guarding the perimeter, the Raptors will face a Denver team, that doesn't allow the opposing team to shoot over 30 % from deep. Combine that with a Toronto team that averages 50 paint points per game. With Jokic having a heavy presence on the defensive end, offense may be hard to come by.
Although the Nuggets took two straight losses to the Thunder and Clippers, they haven't allowed over 110 points per game, and OKC was downright dreadful from the three-point line vs Denver (22 percent). With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting 11-24, the rest of the Thunder team shot an a abysmal 43 % from the floor. With the lack of offense vs a top tier defense, I truly can't see the Raptors hanging around this one. Not to mention, the under looks enticing at 219.5 total points.
2-1 ATS, the Raptors covered the +14.5 underdog spread vs Minnesota, and +5 vs the 76ers. Given the spread isn't terribly large, I feel comfortable laying the points with the Nuggets. Even though Denver is winless ATS, we have to analyze their opponents. The Clippers and Thunder are two contending teams in the western conference and nothing to sniff at.
I do believe the Nuggets offense will start to gel over time. Aside from Nikola Jokic's 41 point performance vs the Clippers, there wasn't much production outside of Jamaal Murray's 22 points. The Nuggets have lost some key championship role players over the year.
However, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr have very much struggled on the offensive end. With Porter Jr shooting 30 % from the field, -18 % from last season, the Nuggets will need their starting five to step up.
It can't just be the Murray and Jokic show. With the departures of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson, expect Christian Braun and Julius Strawther to step up. Scoring 8 total points through two games, can veteran Russell Westbrook find his way in a new rotation?
Overall, the Nuggets have a -10 point differential, which is second worst among Western Conference teams. While the Raptors hold a -11 point differential, the spread should be small on paper. However, winners of two straight vs Toronto, the Nuggets are allowed the Raptors to cover the spread in 6 of their last 10 matchups.
The Nuggets were one free-throw from tying the game vs the Clippers, and the jury is still out about Denver's supporting cast. However, the Raptors simply have too many injuries piled up at once. With Denver due for their first win of the season, I'm also taking the under points here (220).
Second to last in pace, combine that with the Nuggets stifling defense. 0-2 vs totals, Denver is coming off loss in which they allowed the Clippers to score just 104 points.
Barely breaking 100 points against the Timberwolves, Toronto relied heavily on the bench for a spark. Boasting 26 points, who will step up aside from Barnes, Agbaji, and Dick?
I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Nuggets rank dead last in the NBA in points per game. Failing to break 100 (95.5), they've been limited to 28.8 % from beyond the arc, and a league worst 37.8 % from the floor. With major shooting woes, don't expect today's matchup to be a high scoring one. Although the over has hit in 8/10 head-to-head matchups, the Raptors lost key pieces on the offensive end and are in clear rebuild mode.
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