NBA Championship Odds & Predictions: Thunder Favored But Don’t Overlook Spurs, Celtics

The 2025-26 NBA regular season is done and in the books. We got to enjoy some classic games along the way, but it is now time to get serious because the playoffs are here. You don’t have to win every game, but you can’t lose too many either. Of course, with the field down to 20 teams, the NBA championship odds have adjusted accordingly.

But who should you bet on? Should you go with the defending champions since Oklahoma City has been so dominant all season long? Or maybe roll with Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs? Let’s take a look at the odds of the top contenders.

(Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)

NBA Championship Odds: Prior to Round One

Here are the latest NBA Championship odds for the top ten contenders as listed at BetMGM:

• Oklahoma City Thunder +120
• San Antonio Spurs +450
• Boston Celtics +550
• Denver Nuggets +1000
• Cleveland Cavaliers +1500
• Detroit Pistons +1800
• New York Knicks +1800
• Houston Rockets +6600
• Minnesota Timberwolves +8000
• Atlanta Hawks +12500

It is easy to say you should just go with the Thunder. They won it all last year, they’ve been one of the best offensive and defensive teams all season, and they are the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Three of the last four winners were from the West, two of which were the No. 1 seed.

History certainly favors the No. 1 seed for either conference. Of the 79 NBA Champions that have been crowned over the years, 53 of them were a No. 1 seed. Over time, 91 No. 1 seeds have played in the NBA Finals while 27 Finals matchups have featured both No. 1 seeds.

So, we should just put our money on the Thunder or Pistons and be done with it, then, right? Not exactly. The No. 2 seed has won the championship 16 times, and the No. 3 seed has won eight. In all, the No. 1, 2, and 3 seeds have accounted for 77 NBA Finals winners, or approximately 97.5%.

The outliers are the No. 4 (Boston Celtics, 1968) and No. 6 seed (Houston Rockets, 1995) on one occasion. A No. 5 and No. 8 seed have made the Finals twice each, only to lose. A No. 7 seed has yet to make the Finals. An NBA play-in tournament team has made it once (Miami Heat, 2023, the No. 8 seed).

NBA Finals Winner 2026: My Pick(s)

Since the vast majority of winners are No. 1-3 seeds, I am going to focus on those teams for my picks, starting with the obvious choice:

Oklahoma City Thunder +120

Picking the defending champ to repeat is kind of a boring pick, but it is one that is hard to argue with this season. They have one of the best offenses in the NBA, averaging 119 points per game (fifth best in the league), and the second-best defense (107.9 points per game allowed). As strong as they are on both ends of the court, it is going to take a team just as good to take them down.

The OKC roster is deep and talented, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is probably going to repeat as the regular-season MVP. However, while the Thunder should take on the Rockets or Lakers in the conference semifinals, they’ll face either the Nuggets or the Spurs in the conference finals. If they happen to get past the Nuggets/Spurs, the Eastern Conference champ is not going to be a pushover.

San Antonio Spurs +450

If you have had the pleasure of watching Wembanyama play, then you’ll understand why the Spurs are a solid bet to win the NBA championship this season. But the case for the Spurs is more than just Wembanyama: San Antonio is 4-1 against the Thunder this season. Wembanyama was not active for one of the wins, and the Spurs did not have to account for SGA in another. San Antonio averaged 114.4 points per game while holding Oklahoma City to 109.2.

Getting past Denver will be tough. The Nuggets won the season series 3-1. But if they make it to the Finals, I like their chances of beating whoever wins out in the East. San Antonio went 5-1 combined in games against the Celtics, Pistons, and Knicks in the regular season.

Thrillzz

4.8/5

FREE $100K Pick’em Entry 🏀

• Excellent choice of sports.
• Pre-match and live picks.
• Strong community vibe.

Get 100% on any coins purchase up to $100

Claim Now

Boston Celtics +550

This pick kind of defies logic. As good as Boston is, the Celtics lost the season series to the Pistons (3-1) and Knicks (3-1). To get to the NBA Finals, they’ll have to go through both. There is no question that the Celtics have the top defense coming out of the East (107.2 points per game allowed), but whether they have the offense they’ll need to win a title is the question.

With the return of Jayson Tatum to the lineup, the answer to that question is yes. Tatum gives Boston a second 20+ points-per-night scoring threat, along with Jaylen Brown, and is one of the more versatile shooters in the league. It will not be an easy journey for them, or anyone, in the Eastern Conference. But the combination of talent, playoff experience, and coaching has me leaning towards them over the Pistons or Knicks.