
The NBA Cup is back, and the semifinals are down to four teams! Let's look at my player prop picks and best bets for today.

(Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
Four teams. One trophy. Each of these four teams has a chance to win its first NBA Cup in franchise history.
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (24-1) will face the No. 3 San Antonio Spurs (17-7). There's great news on the horizon for Spurs fans: Out since Nov. 14 with a calf strain, Victor Wembanyama is likely to return for today's matchup, according to ESPN's Shams Charania.
With a 24-1 record, the Thunder have entered historical conversations. Are they bound to become the best team the NBA's ever seen? They've tied the 2015-2016 Golden State Warriors for the best 25-game start, and are often compared to Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls in 1995-1996 (23-2).
The Thunder are the reigning NBA Champions for a reason and are the favorite to repeat (-110) and win the NBA Cup (-250). Favorited by a large 10.5-point spread margin, we are talking about a squad that's only had Jalen Williams back for six games! Built for the now and the future, OKC is the team to beat. Riding a 16-game winning streak, this team is fearless.
A 17-7 record puts the Spurs fifth in the Western Conference, and Wembanyam's potential return will be massive if they want to limit the performance of big men Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. 7-3 in their last 10 games, they've won two straight against the Lakers and Pelicans, and four of their last five. Currently, the Spurs have +3500 odds to win the NBA title and the third-best odds to take home the NBA Cup (+800).
Second in the Eastern Conference behind the Detroit Pistons, the Knicks (17-7), are slowly creeping up to the top. Riding a four-game win streak, New York is 8-2 in the last 10 behind Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Mikal Bridges, who make up one of the strongest starting fives in the NBA. Favored by five points, the Knicks have the second-best odds to win the NBA Cup (+400), and third-best odds to raise the Larry O'Brien Trophy (+1300).
At 15-10, the Magic had a rocky start to the season, but have since gelled, winning seven of the last 10 games. Desmond Banes seems like the perfect complement to Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, two stars of the team. An elite team on the defensive end, the Magic have +3300 odds to win the NBA Finals, and +1000 odds to win the NBA Cup.
With a trophy and bonus money on the line, who will make it to the NBA Cup Final in Las Vegas? Let's take a look at the betting odds for tonight.
Tonight's best bets and player prop plays include a mix of spread, guard, and center plays, all found on DraftKings Sportsbook.
G: 19 | PPG: 12.2 | FG: 67.1 % | FT: 64 % | 3PT: 0 % | REB: 10.7 | AST: 3.4 | STL: 1.3 | BLK: 0.8
My first bet for today, I placed one unit on Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein to record under 8.5 rebounds.
If you've been following my betting career, I rarely ever bet the under on player prop bets. Sure, Hartenstein is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game, but hasn't played in six games due to a soleus strain.
Likely to start for OKC, it's unknown if head coach Mark Daigneault will have Hartenstein under a minutes restriction or not. Either way, Victor Wembayana is also set to return after missing the last 12 games with a calf strain.
That means battle of the boards, and we know the Spurs aren't forgiving when it comes to rebounds. While they don't exactly lead the NBA in rebounds (44.8 RPG), San Antonio has allowed the sixth-fewest rebounds per game to opponents (41.1 RPG).
I don't particularly like this matchup for Hartenstein, especially if Wembanyama is fully active without restrictions. He may be 7-foot-4, but Wemby is a floor-spacing big man who often plays away from the paint. A 3-point and inside threat that leaves Hartenstein with a nightmare matchup.
Overall, we are talking about a Spurs team that allows the 10th fewest rebounds to centers, and surprisingly, the Thunder are a middle-of-the-road rebounding team even WITH Holmgren and Hartenstein.
Let's face it—Hartenstein excels on the glass, but he hasn't played since Nov. 26 against the Timberwolves. We've seen him have some enormous performances on the glass, grabbing 14 and 16 rebounds in November.
While it's hard to pinpoint how much Hartenstein and Wemby will play tonight, Hartenstein is averaging just six rebounds over his last three outings against San Antonio. The Spurs have been forgiving on the boards as of late, with Derik Queen (10), Evan Mobley (10), and Zach Edey (15) soaring well over this prop over the last few weeks. Again, Wembanyama was on the sidelines.
G: 25 | PPG: 19 | FG: 44.8 % | FT: 93.6 % | 3PT: 34.9 % | REB: 4.4 | AST: 4.5 | STL: 0.8 | BLK: 0.3
My second-best bet for today, I placed one unit on Magic guard Desmond Bane to record over 21.5 points.
Bane undoubtedly was off to a rough start to the season, but he has since found his groove. In his first season in Orlando since being traded from the Grizzlies, Bane has been a top-scoring threat for the Magic.
That doesn't mean this player prop doesn't come with some inconsistencies and volatility. I do think this has great value at +100 odds, especially since it's an elimination NBA Cup round. Although averaging 21.8 points in December, we've seen flashes of greatness from Bane.
In fact, he took over with 37 points in Orlando's 117-108 victory over Florida rival Miami Heat. 14-24 from the field, he shot 6-9 from three, and six rebounds, and five assists. And yes, we saw him explode for 37 points against Chicago in early December.
Apparently, the books aren't sold, given his poor shooting performances, including 2-16 from the field against the Heat.
I'm expecting a much larger role for Bane, given that Franz Wagner is ruled out two-to-four weeks after suffering an ankle sprain on Monday. We've only seen one outing without Wagner on the court, and Bane led the Magic in scoring, minutes, and field goal attempts.
We already know the Magic crack just outside the top 10 in offensive rating (115.7), and Bane, Wagner, and Banchero collectively make up over 50 % of the team's offense. Sure, the Magic have scoring options in Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Tristan da Silva, and Wendell Carter Jr.
In a must-win game, it's going to come down to the offensive firepower of Banchero and Bane. Second on the team, averaging 15.3 FGA per game, this is why the Magic traded for him in the first place.
Overall, this is a fairly decent matchup for Bane, given that the Knicks allow the sixth-most points at the forward/three. Although a guard, it turns out the Knicks run a smaller lineup with Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges.
Despite Bane's inconsistencies, we just saw Brandon Ingram take over for 31 points against the Knicks, and both Jaylen Brown of the Celtics and Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 42 and 30 points against New York in November.
I do think moving to the three helps Bane here, and he's averaging 18 shot attempts and 21.8 points this month. Not to mention, he's caught fire from deep, shooting 45.2 % beyond the arc, and 47.1 % from the field.
In a must-win scenario, volume and minutes should be an issue, especially since Bane is averaging 35.4 MPG this month alone. While the Knicks are a top 10 defensive team, we've seen them vulnerable at times.
My third-best bet for Saturday, I placed one unit on the San Antonio Spurs to cover the 10.5-point spread tonight.
There's no doubt the Thunder have already made history and are the top dogs in the NBA. When I mean they've blown teams out, they are beating teams by large margins left and right.
Covering the 15.5, 11.5, 15.5, and 11-point spreads over the last four games, the Thunder holds a 72.75 average point differential over that span. They lead the NBA with a +17.4 point differential, and no matter who the opponent is, it hasn't been close.
I can see why they are favorable for the sportsbooks. They last rocked the Suns 138-99, and defeated the Mavericks and Warriors by more than 10 points. And it's in their favor that the Thunder have a 14-11 record ATS this season.
I would like to think the Spurs can keep it within 11 points, especially if Wembanyama can suit up. With a 17-7 record ATS, this is a Spurs team that last shut out the Lakers, 132-119!
A top ten team on both sides of the ball, the Spurs have some serious hoopers in Wemby, D'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. A team that has a ton of depth can keep up with the Thunder (to some degree. I'm not saying they'll win outright, but this is a must-win game for both teams.
The Spurs have been hot, winning games against the Lakers, Pelicans, Magic, Grizzlies, Nuggets, Trail Blazers, and Hawks over the last 10 games. Although just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS against the Thunder over their last 10 meetings, this is a vastly different Spurs team.
