Key Points
- Sara breaks down her three best player prop bets for the December 10 NBA Cup Quarterfinal matchups
The NBA Cup quarterfinals are here, and we have two Eastern and Western Conference Showdowns! For the early matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks (4-0) will host the Orlando Magic (3-1). Earning the top wild card spot out of the East, the Magic rose above the Boston Celtics with a +45 point differential.
(Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)
The Dallas Mavericks (3-1) will face the OKC Thunder (3-1) on the road for the late-night Western Conference matchup. With the Thunder included as one of three teams to win the respective groups in the west, the Mavericks nabbed the top wild-card spot.
Get your popcorn out, the NBA Cup quarterfinals will be a cinema. Now that we've advanced to the knockout rounds, every team will face single elimination. In this article, I will provide my three best player prop bets for both NBA Cup matchups tonight. With an NBA betting record of 17-16, I'm looking to cash everyone out and keep the good bets rolling!
With tip-offs slated for 7:00 p.m. ET and 9:30 p.m. ET, both Cup games will air on TNT. Before we head into my player prop best bets, let's take a look at the odds for the December 10 NBA Cup games!
NBA Cup Quarterfinals Slate And FanDuel Odds For Tuesday, December 10
- Orlando Magic (+7.5) (+250 ML) vs Milwaukee Bucks (-7.5) (-310 ML): O/U 213
- Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) (+152 ML) vs OKC Thunder (-4.5) (-180 ML): O/U 230.5
Are you looking to bet on NBA player props with us all season long? Here at Ballislife Bets, we've gathered a complete list of the best sports betting offers here.
NBA Cup Quarterfinals Player Props Tuesday, December 10
Player Prop Best Bet #1: Luka Doncic
Luka Doncic 2024-2025 Season Stats
G: 18 | PPG: 28.7 | FG: 45 % | FT: 76.4 % | 3PT : 34.8 % | REB: 8.3 | AST: 8.1 | STL: 1.9 | BLK: 0.4
- Over 28.5 Points (-113 FanDuel)
My first player prop bet of today, I placed one unit on Mavericks star
Luka Doncic
to record over 28.5 points vs the Thunder tonight on FanDuel.
- First off, It's the NBA Cup quarterfinals. In a knockout single elimination format, do I really think Doncic will disappear this game? Absolutely not.
Sure, Doncic's numbers are down from last year, however, it's the biggest game of the year thus far for either team. While the prop line is equally set with his points average, Doncic has been sizzling as of late.
- Coming off a 30 point performance, on 46.2 % three-point vs the Raptors is impressive. Tallying another triple double on the season, het gets a favorite matchup.
On par with last year, the Thunder are an elite team on the defensive end, ranking first in defensive rating (103.3). Giving up the 7th fewest points to guards, this is a tall task for Doncic. However, let's look how other guards in the NBA have fared the Thunder.
Since the middle of November, Fred VanVleet is the only guard to record over 30 points vs OKC (38). In the previous matchup, Dejounte Murray recorded 26 points on a 17.5 opening prop line. There's no doubt the Thunder have one of the strongest defensive back courts in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace. Not to mention Alex Caruso, who was acquired from the Bulls.
Is There Any Team That Can Stop Luka Doncic?
Overall, Luka is unlike any other player. His ability to get to the basket and hit deadly step back threes is powerful for any team to stop. After all, this is a rematch of the Western Conference Finals. While Doncic had a slow start to the series, we can't forget the guards unforgettable 31 and 29 point performances in game five and six. It was Doncic's late game game step back to put the Mavericks up by two points.
I do expect this NBA Cup matchup to be competitive tonight. If it's anything similar to last year's playoffs, three of the five games in the series were decided by four points or less.
- Recording 29+ points in three of the last five outings vs OKC, there's no greater moment than tonight.
If you're tailing my picks, Doncic should continue to see hefty minutes, especially given it's a single elimination Cup game. Hitting the 30+ point mark in 2/3 group play games thus far, Doncic is averaging 31.3 points and 37 minutes in three Cup games vs the Grizzlies, Pelicans, and Warriors.
- Shooting 53.5 % from the field in those games, I'm confident he will soar over this player prop line tonight.
Sara's Final NBA Cup Quarterfinal Player Prop Betting Prediction: Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points (-113 FanDuel)
A monumental reason behind the Mavericks success in group play, Doncic is averaging nine free-throw attempts in the last three games. Given the Thunder allow the fourth most trips to the charity stripe in the NBA (25.5), expect Doncic to eat at the free-throw line.
A tough matchup on the road, it's not a difference maker for Doncic. Flourishing in away games, the guard is averaging 30.4 points on 47.8 field goal %. When playing 37+ minutes, Doncic notched 30+ points in four of the last five matchups. Combine that with a lofty amount of minutes and shot volume.
With everything on the line, the Mavericks will look to advance to the final round once again vs the Thunder. Expect Doncic to step up in the brightest of moments.
- I'll take Luka Doncic to score over 28.5 points, and do expect this player prop line to increase.
Player Prop Best Bet #2: Jalen Suggs
Jalen Suggs 2024-2025 Season Stats
G: 12 | PPG: 16 | FG: 41.2 % | FT: 92.1 % | 3PT : 32 % | REB: 3.9 | AST: 3.9 | STL: 1.5 | BLK: 0.9
- Over 20.5 Points (-115 DraftKings)
My second best player prop for today, I placed one unit on Magic guard
Jalen Suggs
to record over 20.5 points vs the Milwaukee Bucks.
Someway, somehow, the Magic have managed to stay in the win column minus the injury to Paolo Banchero.
- Now with Franz Wagner sidelined indefinitely, it's the next player up. And that guy is guard Jalen Suggs.
I do find this prop line slightly elevated, especially given Suggs hovers around 16 points per game. However, the Bucks haven proven they aren't the best team on the defensive end. Although there's been a drastic improvement, the Bucks give up the 8th most points to guards.
Put Suggs in the drivers seat tonight in a must win NBA Cup quarterfinals showdown. Recording 22 points vs the 76ers, and 26 vs the Suns, it's clear Suggs usage is increasing. In an impressive 115-110 victory over the Suns, it was the former Gonzaga star who led the way for the Magic.
- In 31 minutes, 26 points on 8-18 field goal shooting isn't too shabby.
Why Jalen Suggs Has The Be The No.1 Option Today
I'm more or less sold on his recent shot volume, especially at the free-throw line and beyond the ac. Aside from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the starting lineup, will Cole Anthony and Anthony Black leak into his minutes? Most likely not. In a must win scenerio, Suggs is the third leading scorer on the Magic as it is. Aside form Mo Wagner, there's a drastic drop off.
Let's face it. If the Magic have any chance of pulling out a victory, Suggs doesn't have a choice. It's ball out or nothing. While yet to eclipse over 20+ points in group play, the guard averaged 16 over that span. To be fair, Suggs minutes were limited vs the Nets due to a blowout 123-100 victory.
Given Suggs tallied 19 and 17 points in group play next to Franz Wagner, there's no doubt in my mind this will sizzle over the 20.5 mark tonight. One of the best two-way guards in the game, Suggs has struggled a bit beyond the arc.
- However, averaging more minutes and free-throws than ever, Suggs has drastically improved his free-throw percentage from 75.6 to 92.1 %.
Averaging a career-high 16 points, the guard has heavily increased his productivity in December. Playing with more efficiency on the road than home, that may be a factor today. Yet to play the Bucks this season, he's yet to record over 20.5 points vs them in his career. Putting up 20 and 18 within the last three outings, it makes this a strong play.
Sara's Final NBA Cup Quarterfinal Player Prop Betting Prediction: Jalen Suggs Over 20.5 Points (-115 DraftKings)
Overall, I may expect this line to increase as the day goes on. While the stats suggest you take the under, we recently witnessed
- Dennis Schröder (34)
- Jaylen Brown (25)
- Cade Cunningham (23)
- Jordan Poole (31)
- LaMelo Ball (50)
- Zach LaVine (27)
- Fred VanVleet (26)
All soar over the 20.5 player prop points line. Expecting a heavy amount of playing time from Suggs, I'm completely sold by his shot volume alone. Averaging 17 field goal attempts over the last four games, Suggs has 38 trey ball attempts in that span as well. While the shooting percentages aren't fantastic, Suggs excels defensively and on the fast break.
- Allowing the 5th most fast break points in the NBA, I'll stick with Jalen Suggs to record over 20.5 points today.
Player Prop Best Bet #3: Bobby Portis Jr.
Bobby Portis Jr. 2024-2025 Season Stats
G: 22 | PPG: 12.8 | FG: 46.3 % | FT: 73.1 % | 3PT : 37 % | REB: 7.5 | AST: 1.5 | STL: 0.5 | BLK: 0.6
- Over 10.5 Points (-120 DraftKings)
My last player prop of today, I placed one unit on
Bobby Portis
to record over 10.5 points vs the Magic tonight on DraftKings.
This may not be the most popular bet, however, Portis Jr. is one of the most crucial pieces off the bench for Doc Rivers and the Bucks. Averaging 12.8 points per game, this player prop line is slightly under his points average. For that reason, It's a sure lock for me today.
As of recent, bettors have seen the increase production and importance of Bobby Portis. Can we truly forget his 9 point, 18 rebound performance vs the Celtics that mainly erupted in the first half?
- Coming off a 23 point performance vs the Nets, I truly believe this prop line is too low. Especially since Portis Jr. finished a perfect 5-5 from downtown, and tied Gary Trent Jr. for the second highest shot attempts.
Why Bobby Portis Is A Crucial X-Factor For the Bucks
Sure, the return of Khris Middletown may affect Portis in someway. However, I expect Middleton to continue to be hampered by minute restrictions.
Overall, Portis Jr has been inconsistent over the season, and that's okay. From a betting perspective, we are targeting at least 11 points from the big man. Tallying that total in three of the last five outings, he's done so in all three NBA group Cup matchups. With 11 vs Miami, and 17 vs the Pacers and Hornets, what should this line truly be set at?
I'm banking on Portis Jr. to feed off his 90 field goal and 100 three point percentages today. While Orlando allows the third fewest points to forwards, it's won't be an easy task. With that said, if Jonaathan Isaac is unable to return with a hamstring injury, I'll love this prop even more.
- Again, the absence of Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and the addition of Tristan Da Silva sure changes the landscape.
Sara's Final NBA Cup Quarterfinal Player Prop Betting Prediction: Bobby Portis J. Over 10.5 Points (-120 DraftKings)
Known for their defensive prowess, the Magic have been a bit forgiving to forwards as of late. That includes
- Royce O'Neale (16)
- Paul George (21)
- Kelly Oubre Jr (15)
- Mikal Bridges (19)
- Cameron Johnson (26, 14)
All forwards who haver recorded well over 10.5 points for their respective teams. Dating back to 2021, Portis has always matched up well with the Magic. Averaging just over 15 points in the last 11 outings vs Orlando, the forward recorded 17 and 30 points in their last two head-to-head matchups.
I truly expect Portis to receive a lofty amount of minutes, ranging anywhere from 20-25. When averaging 23 minutes+, he's cleared this line in 8 straight games vs the Magic, and four of the last five overall.
- One of the most underrated and crucial players on the Bucks, look for Bobby Portis Jr. to score over 10.5 points today.
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