Key Points
- SJ breaks down her three best bets for the NBA Cup Championship Finals between the Bucks and the Thunder
The NBA Cup Championship game is officially here! With the final stage set, the
Milwaukee Bucks
(14-11) and Oklahoma City Thunder (20-5) will square off tonight in Las Vegas.
(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
With a bonus and trophy on the line, who will be the next NBA franchise to raise the second-ever Cup Championship banner? As of tonight, one team will be crowned the winner. Before we head into my best bets and predictions for today, let's look at the NBA Cup Championship odds for Tuesday, December 17.
Current NBA CUP Championship FanDuel odds and NBA slate for Tuesday, December 17
| Matchup |
Spread |
Moneyline (ML) |
Over/Under (O/U) |
| Milwaukee Bucks vs OKC Thunder |
+5 / -5 |
+172/ -205 |
215.5 |
The NBA Cup Championship Final is today
The winner of group B and the Eastern Conference at 4-0, the Bucks had a fairly easy coast to the finals. Leading the entire east with a +50 point differential, the Bucks had group play victories over the Raptors, Pacers, Heat, and Pistons. With one of those opponents above .500, the Bucks will get their toughest test tonight.
Their biggest game thus far this season, Khris Middleton (Illness), Damian Lillard (Calf), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (Knee) are all probable to suit up for today's championship matchup. With that said, will the Bucks stars be available at full strength?
8-2 in their last ten games, the Bucks have turned it around after a disastrous 2-8 start. With victories over the Magic and Hawks in the first two rounds, it was Lillard who sent the Magic packing with a late game surge. Capturing a 110-102 victory of the Hawks in the semifinals, the dynamic duo of Antetokounmpo and Lillard was deemed unstoppable.
While the money isn't the biggest deal for the top stars, it's an incentive for the younger and two-way players. For Lillard, this is the closest the guard has come to winning some sort of championship trophy. Being named winners would very much give Lillard and company momentum into the second half of the season.
Are the Thunder the team the beat overall?
One of the hottest, young teams in the NBA, the Thunder have managed to mark themselves in the win column with setbacks. With injuries to Jaylin Williams and Chet Holmgren, is Oklahoma City the team to beat? A top five team to win the NBA Cup at +500 odds, they maintain an impressive 20-5 overall record.
Winners of group b, the Thunder led the Western Conference with a 3-1 record. Not to much surprise, their +45 point differential led them to victories over the Suns, Lakers, and Jazz. With OKC considered one of the best elite defensive teams in the NBA, they find themselves as -5 point favorites today.
Odds Are Current As Of December 17 AT 9 A.M. ET
If you're looking to bet on the NBA Cup Championship, you've come to the right place! With an NBA betting record of 30-27, let's look to cash out on my top predictions and picks.
Providing a mix of team totals and player prop bets, I've placed each pick as separate bets. Placed within FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook, I'm keeping my bank roll management in mind.
With tip-off slated for 8:30 p.m. ET, the Finals matchup will air on ABC, located at T-Mobile Arena. Let's take a deeper look at my three best bets and predictions for the NBA Cup Championship matchup between the Bucks and Thunder.
Are you looking to bet on the NBA with us all season long? We have compiled a
list of the best sports betting offers here.
Milwaukee Bucks vs OKC Thunder Injury Report
BUCKS
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, F: Questionable (Knee)
- Damian Lillard, G: Questionable (Calf)
- Khris Middleton, F: Questionable (Illness)
- Liam Roberts, C: Questionable (Ankle)
THUNDER
- Adam Flagler, F: OUT
- Chet Holmgren, F: OUT (Hip)
- Alex Ducas, G: OUT (Back)
- Jaylin Williams, F: OUT (Hamstring)
- Ousmane Dieng, F: OUT (Finger)
- Nikola Topic, G: OUT (ACL)
Last Two H2H Matchups: Milwaukee Bucks vs OKC Thunder
- April 12, 2024: Thunder 125, Bucks 107 (OKC -14, over 224.5)
- March 24, 2024: Bucks 118, Thunder 93 (Milwaukee -2.5, under 233.5)
NBA Cup Championship Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday, December 17: Bucks vs Thunder
NBA Team Totals Bet: Milwaukee Bucks vs OKC Thunder
- Oklahoma City Thunder Over 110.5 Team Total (-105 FanDuel)
My first prediction for today, I placed one unit on the
OKC Thunder
to total over 110.5 team total points for -105 odds. At nearly plus money, the Thunder are a top 8 team on both sides of the ball. The clear leaders of the NBA in defensive rating, the Thunder put up the 10th most points in the NBA (115.6).
OKC's offense certainly takes a hit without big man Chet Holmgren. However, they have some heavy hitters. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way with 30.3 points per game, Jalen Williams has blossomed in a complimentary role (21.7 PPG). With Holmgren out indefinitely, ex Knicks center Isiah Hartenstein has been everything the Thunder had hoped for.
Outside of the top three plus Lu Dort, the Thunder have a ton of assets that can make a difference on rotation on both sides of the ball. Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins, just to name a few.
Riding a five game win streak, it's unclear how many minutes the bench will see. With the top 5 expected to play lofty minutes, I expect Mark Daigneault to play a solid rotation.
The Thunder Have Exceeded Expectations On The Offensive End
Although the Thunder aren't necessarily a team that will dominate from beyond the arc, they do attempted the ninth most three-pointers per game. An aggressive squad that takes nearly 93 shots per game, it will all come down to field goal percentage.
11th in paint points (50.2), the Thunder are a team that prides themselves in defense. That being, they lead the NBA in points off turnovers with 22.7 per game.
- The best in the NBA in opponent points in the paint, second chance points and defensive possessions will remain crucial today.
Putting up 437 total points in group play, the Thunder are putting up 122 points in the last five games. Able to score 111 vs a stingy Rockets defense, I absolutely love this pick for the odds value.
Scoring 10+ points in 16/30 total games on the season, the Thunder haven't scored below 110 points since November 29 vs the Lakers.
- Hitting this total in six straight games, they've been a top five team in offensive rating over the last five matchups.
Blazing from the field over that span, the Thunder have remained a pristine team in field goal attempts and makes per game. Shooting a 7th best 48.7 percent over the last 5, they remain hot heading into tonight!
Although a fairly low scoring affair, OKC dropped 70 second half points to defeat the Rockets 111-96 in the first round. Finishing 45 % from the field and 36.7 % from downtown, don't sleep on Houston. They are elite, ranking 2nd in defensive rating.
Can the Bucks Hold Up Defensively With Injuries?
Just a few games ago, the Thunder defeated the Mavericks 118-104 to advance to the Cup Finals. It's important to note, Dallas as a fairly solid defense. Shooting 40 percent from deep, I'm curious to how the Bucks hold up defensively.
If you're a bettor, the Bucks haven't been the most elite defense in the past few years. Middle of the road, they rank 13th in defensive rating, allowing 111.9 points per game.
- Moderate in several statistical categories on defense, I'd like to think the Thunder can pull out enough points today.
Sure, the NBA Cup Championship game is expected to be competitive with a ton of defense. While the Bucks 412 opponent points total was second best in the East, we have to look at their opponents.
- Combine that with a Thunder team that's put up 113 average points over 6 group and playoff cup games.
Final NBA Cup Best Bet Pick and Prediction: OKC Thunder Over 110.5 Team Total Points (-105 FanDuel)
Failing to allow the Hawks and Magic to surpass 109 points, the Bucks are allowing an average of 103.8 opponent points per game over the cup games. We saw how the Pacers fared with 117 points back on November 22.
There's no doubt the Bucks have increased their defensive intensity. While the stats say no, the Thunder have the star power to surpass this total. A face paced team, the Thunder face a Bucks team, who allows the 24th most fast break points.
- My best bet of today, I'm riding with OKC Thunder team total over 110.5 points today.
NBA Player Prop Best Bet #1: Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard 2024-2025 Season Stats
G: 22 | PPG: 25.7 | FG: 45 % | FT: 91.6 % | 3PT : 37.1 % | REB: 4.5 | AST: 7.5 | STL: 1.0 | BLK: 0.2
- Over 22.5 Points (-115 FanDuel)
My second prediction for the NBA Cup Championship game, I placed one unit on Bucks star
Damian Lillard
to score over 22.5 points for -115 odds vs the Thunder.
Sure, Lillard is probable to suit up with a calf injury. Suffering the setback vs the Hawks in the second quarter, Lillard insists he will play today. While it's not deemed serious, I do believe the books are sleeping on this player prop line. 22.5 points is simply too low for a Cup Championship game.
Of course, the Thunder's caliber of defense will surely deflate Lillard's prop lines by quite a bit. Given Fred VanVleet (38 points) and Dejounte Murray (26 points) are the sole guards to soar over 22.5 points since November 20, I can see why it's so low.
However, this is a must win or go home scenario. This is the closest Lillard has ever come to winning a trophy or raising a banner. With that said, I expect Lillard and Giannis to carry to bulk of the work today. With 57 combined points vs the Hawks, and 65 vs the Magic, who realistically will carry outside of those two stars?
Why This Player Prop Line Is Set Too Low
With 6 points in the last two cup playoff games, it's doubtful the Bucks can truly count on Khris Middleton just yet. While Bobby Portis Jr. and Brook Lopez are viable scoring options, the jury is still out on Andre Jackson Jr.'s offensive capability.
If the Bucks want to win the Cup Championship, Lillard must step up and produce in the highest way. Averaging 25.2 points in December, Lillard is coming off 25 and 28 point performances vs Atlanta and Orlando. Able to put up 28 against one of the best defenses in the league, Lillard had 10 trips to the charity stripe alone vs the Magic.
Averaging 28.2 points in group matchups and NBA Cup playoff games, Lillard hasn't fallen below the 22.5 point threshold in either of those games. If able to lace up, Lillard should play between 35-40 minutes tonight. Tallying under 22.5 point once in the last ten games, this is a strong play today.
Given the Thunder allow the fifth most trips to the free-throw line (25.2), Lillard is one of the best in getting to the charity stripe. Over a 90 % shooter from the line, Lillard has 15 free-throw attempts alone over the last two outings.
Final NBA Cup Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Damian Lillard Over 22.5 Points (-115 FanDuel)
There's no doubt the Thunder will be a tough challenge for Lillard on the defensive end. Not allowing one single Rockets start to tally 15+ points, they held Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, and Klay Thompson to under 20 points.
Take the matchup away, Lillard is averaging 24.8 points in the last five games. With the Thunder allowing the 5th fewest points to guards, Lillard will have his work cut out for him. In the biggest game of the season, Lillard previously dropped 38 points on the Thunder in February 2023.
With 19 three-point attempts, the Bucks guard should get plenty of shot attempts and minutes tonight. After all, bettors witnessed Dame pour in 36 and 41 points against a stingy Cavaliers defense.
- I'm taking Damian Lillard to score over 22.5 points as one of my top predictions today.
NBA Player Prop Best Bet #2: Gary Trent Jr.
Gary Trent Jr. 2024-2025 Season Stats
G: 23 | PPG: 8.9 | FG: 40.4 % | FT: 88 % | 3PT : 38.8 % | REB: 2.0 | AST: 1.0 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0.0
- Over 6.5 Points (-125 DraftKings)
My last prediction for today, I placed one unit on Bucks guard
Gary Trent Jr.
to score over 6.5 points for -125 odds vs the Thunder.
I found this line early, and I am sure it will increase as the day goes on. Initially liking Trent Jr. to bank over 1.5 made threes, I chose to stay with the points.
- Averaging 8.9 points on the season, Trent Jr. has been a viable option off the bench in Doc Rivers rotation. A player capable of putting up 17+ points, I do believe he will soar over the 6.5 point prop line tonight.
Coming off a one point performance vs the Hawks, I doubt the guard will repeat a 0-5 from the field, and 0-4 from downtown performance. Averaging a season high 10.8 points in December, there's no doubt his production has been a hit or miss.
However, With a 41.2 three-point percentage this month, Trent Jr. has played some hefty minutes in group play.
- Averaging 10.2 points on the road, the guard is put up 7.1 points in seven cup games.
A strong option along with AJ Green behind Lillard in the backcourt, Trent Jr. will play a monumental role tonight, especially on the defensive end. It's always risky given he's not a stater. With that said, he's gone under 6.5 points in two cup playoff games vs the Magic and Hawks.
Final NBA Cup Best Bet Pick and Prediction: Gary Trent Jr. Over 6.5 Points (-125 DraftKings)
Averaging at least 20 minutes in the last 10 games, it's unclear if his minutes will be affected tonight. All I know, is that Trent Jr. will be needed defensively vs the Thunder. With the points, I expect the guard to get a majority of his points from three-point shots alone.
Overall, 7 points isn't asking much, especially in the biggest game of the season thus far. This is a strong prop, especially if Lillard is blitzed, or if Middleton is unable to see a ton of action.
- Soaring over this line in 10 of 15 games this year, I'm going with Gary Trent Jr. to score over 6.5 points today.
BALLISLIFE.COM
