NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds: Victor Wembanyama Primed For Defensive POY Award

San Antonio Spurs sensation is primed to win his second major individual NBA award in 2024-25 as the league’s premier defensive player of the year NBA.

He’ll have to buck some trends and history, but if there is any player in the league that qualifies as a game-changer and history-maker, it’s the 7-foot-4 French wunderkind.

Victor Wembanyama is supposed to be the next big thing in pro basketball and after one NBA season with the San Antonio Spurs, he’s lived up to the hype.

We’ve heard the “best prospect since LeBron” hype before with O.J. Mayo in 2007, Jabari Parker in 2013 and Zion Williamson in 2018. Those comparisons, however, were mostly hyperbole to sell events and produce clicks.

• Wembanyama is different and it was evident since first seeing him in person in Las Vegas in October of 2022.

Evaluating him was almost shocking; his size and length combined with his coordinated movements were something we’ve never seen in person from an 18-year old prospect.

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Wembanyama's Historic Rookie Season

What was supposed to be the most highly-anticipated rookie season at least since David Robinson took a two-year hiatus after being the Spurs’ No. 1 pick in the 1987 Draft turned into a coronation for the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft by the same franchise.

Unprecedented Impact as a Rookie

Wembanyama turned in a rookie season for the ages, as perhaps the most spectacular rookie since Michael Jordan in 1984-85 or even Wilt Chamberlain back in 1959-60.

The 7-foot-4 20-year old center was the sixth player ever to be named NBA Rookie of the Year unanimously. He also made as big an impact defensively as any first-year NBA player ever, or at least since Chamberlain.

Defensive Excellence and Comparisons

It was quite a different league when The Dipper broke into the NBA before advanced defensive stats were tracked and Wemby is the type of player and prospect that comes along perhaps once in a lifetime. He’s that unique and talented.

Did Wemby Deserve Rookie and Defensive Player of the Year Honors?

Wembanyama was easily the top rookie in 2023-24, as expected, but his defensive impact on the league might have even been greater than his production over the next best rookie in the NBA.

Wemby's Defensive Impact

With his size and agility, Wembanyama’s defensive impact is incredible.

In fact,

• he finished in second place in voting for the 2024 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award, tallying 19 of 99 first-place votes,
• to finish in second place (245 points) behind honoree Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves (433 points).

He was only the second rookie to finish second in defensive POY voting, following 7-foot-7 Manute Bol of the Washington Bullets (now Wizards) in 1985-86 while becoming the only rookie named NBA All-Defensive first team.

Was he more deserving than Gobert? Was Gobert honored because voters already knew of his prowess and were voting heavily on his reputation?

Based on the criteria used for the award, Gobert was deserving. It was also the fourth time Gobert, who like Wembanyama hails from France, has won the award since 2017-18. Media and other awards voters definitely are familiar and comfortable with Gobert’s prowess, but likely don’t fully comprehend Wemby’s impact just yet.

The award traditionally comes down to blocks, win shares and defensive rating.

1. Wemby and Bol are the only rookies to lead the league in blocks per game and total blocks, but Gobert had more win shares and a better defensive rating.
2. Gobert finished first in the league in defensive win shares (5.8) and had a 104.4 defensive rating, compared to Wembanyama’s 105.8, which was No. 2 in the league according to statmuse.com.

Gobert was better in those advanced statistics but certainly not by much.

Since the award was given out beginning in 1982-83, every honoree has played on a playoff team, and the NBA Defensive Player of the Year list includes some of the most impactful defenders in NBA history. The team with the worst record in that time which had the defensive player on its roster was the 1985-86 San Antonio Spurs.

Alvin Robertson was a hellacious defensive guard on a 35-47 team that finished sixth in the Midwest Division and was swept out of the playoffs in the opening round by the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Case for Wembanyama

Gobert’s Timberwolves finished 56-26, while Wemby’s Spurs went 22-60. With that team record combined with Gobert’s rebounding prowess, win shares and reputation, he deserved the award.

Taking a deeper look, however, perhaps Wemby should have received more first place votes. Gobert’s teammate Anthony Edwards was fourth (4.7) in win shares, while three other Wolves finished in the Top 20.

• Wembanyama was sixth (4.4), but no other Spur was above 2.0.

The Timberwolves was just a better defensive team with a more talented roster, while the rookie sensation made all the difference for a franchise that lacks playoff caliber talent and/or the perimeter pieces to maximize Wembanyama’s unique talents.

Favorites to Win NBA Rookie of the Year

Why He’s the 2024-25 Favorite For Defensive POY

Wemby represents the NBA’s future, but to win NBA Defensive POY this season he’ll have to buck some tradition and history. We’ll tell you why he’ll do that and what makes Wemby a solid bet to win the award this season.

Yes, Gobert is projected to play on the better team in 2024-25, but his defensive impact in the eyes of voters and the public has reached its peak.

It’s a bit of a case of Gobert fatigue, especially in light of the Timberwolves’ lackluster post-season performance.

1. His defensive play was largely ineffective in the playoffs, when more eyeballs were watching him and he even had to be removed from the game at times because of his lack of versatility.
2. Some media pundits and NBA podcasters openly questioned his worthiness as the playoffs went on and during the off season. That will resonate with voters this time around.
3. Sure, Wembanyama’s team probably won’t be in the playoffs, but it won’t matter this time around.

He’s too impactful and NBA followers are getting a better understanding of his defensive impact, which can't just be measured in numbers. His defensive numbers will be strong once again, but his overall impact will be understood to a greater extent.

If he wins the award, he’ll be the first player in league history to do so by his second season. Robertson was the top defender in his third season in the NBA.

Wemby’s impact also extends to the perimeter and he’s making an impact in terms of steals and blocks that we’ve only seen a few times in NBA history.

• Wembanyama is only one of four players with multiple 5-block, 5-steal games, joining Andre Kirilenko and NBA Hall of Famers Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan.

Olajuwon has the most all-time with six and Wemby already has two under his belt after one season. Gobert also fouls offensive players at a much higher rate and blocks less shots.

• In 11 seasons, Gobert has blocked six or more shots 21 times, while Wemby has already done it 12 times in one season.

Watching Wemby play, the stats that don’t show up in the defensive metrics are just as or more influential. Wembanyama shrinks the floor defensively as much as any player we’ve ever seen, as he forces team’s No. 1 and No. 2 options to pass up shots they would normally take.

• He also can get out to block or alter jump shots as well as any big man since Olajuwon and causes guards to keep their dribble and probe more than any player we’ve ever seen.
• He also has the ability to break up 2-on-1 and 3-on-2 fast breaks while forcing teams to settle into a halfcourt set unlike any player we’ve ever seen.

These incredible defensive skills and traits are not done justice by stats and analytics. Not yet, anyway.

As a rookie, Wembanyama averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals in 71 games. He also led the league in five-block games (24). We expect his scoring and rebounding numbers to be better in 2024-25, while his other stats are situational.

Just because he doesn’t block as many shots as he did as a rookie, wouldn’t mean his impact is any less. And just because Gobert is better in win shares, doesn’t mean he’s a better defender.

Previous 10 NBA Rookie of the Year Winners

Over the last decade, the NBA Rookie of the Year award has been given to standout players like Ja Morant, Malcolm Brogdon, and Ben Simmons. Here’s a look at the winners from the past 10 seasons:

Key Challengers and Projections

In fact, we expect the main challengers to Wemby will be Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo and Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren with Gobert fourth in our projection.

• Adebayo has been an elite defender on a winning team for the past five seasons and Holmgren is a young talent on an excellent team with some of Wemby’s defensive traits.

Gobert has had his time, but Wembanyama will continue to break barriers in his second season and push the limits to the ceiling a talented young prospect can reach.