
Who says you can't lead from behind? The New York Knicks have led for an average of only about 14 minutes of game time per game in the NBA Finals, yet they are only one victory away from their first title since 1973.

(Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
The San Antonio Spurs must find a way to recover from the worst collapse in NBA history: squandering a 29-point lead to lose Game 4 on Wednesday. If any team has a chance to have "goldfish memory" and move on, it's the young Spurs.
In all four games of this series, the Spurs have pounced on the Knicks, building 10+ point leads in the first quarter. But in all four games, San Antonio lost the game down the stretch, often making frustrating miscues or missing shot after shot.
Game 5 is back in San Antonio, where hoops experts have the Spurs as favorites to grab a second win. Odds used in my betting guide today are from FanDuel.
A note on the broadcasts: ABC and ESPN are doing a fantastic job in these Finals. The first year of pregame and postgame coverage with the Inside the NBA crew on ESPN has been a hit. No other sport has a better wrap-up show than when Ernie, Kenny, Shaq, and Charles give us their analysis.
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The Spurs have outscored the Knicks by a whopping 46 points in the first quarter of this series. Maybe the Knicks are taking deep naps prior to tip-off, or maybe the Spurs are just using youthful energy to bound out to leads. Whatever the reason, I love the Spurs to again win the 1st quarter.
San Antonio has held a lead in the fourth quarter in all four of these games. But their shooting struggles in the second half have been their downfall. Tonight, if they steer clear of an over-reliance on 3-point shots, the Spurs should be able to use their superior depth at guard to get to the rim and the foul line, where they can avoid a late-game collapse.
My second game prop is tied to the fourth quarter, where we have seen the most exciting action this series, although it's often been ugly. The Spurs are shooting 27-for-79 (34%) from the field in the 4Q in the NBA Finals.
In three of the first four games in this series, the fourth quarter has seen the lowest scoring output. Similarly, three of the four games have seen fewer points in the second half than in the first. Part of the issue is pacing: the Spurs seem hyperactive early, and Wembanyama has appeared visibly worn down late in each of these games. Mitch Johnson keeps playing his giant even when his team has a huge lead, wearing him down.
The Spurs have shot below 30% from the field in the fourth quarter in three of the four games, all losses.
Few superstars have been more analyzed and dissected on the big stage than Victor Wembanyama in these Finals. Maybe he really is an alien. So far, Wembanyama has seemed at times out of sync, and at times he's been physically spent. But there's not much the young MVP candidate can do to change his physical makeup at this point in the season. He simply needs to play a full game well.
Karl-Anthony Towns has mostly been successful at muscling Wembanyama around the floor. Too often, the French Freak has been much too far away from the paint, on both offense and defense. 25+ feet from the basket, Wembanyama's size is less of an advantage, and his inability to square up a defender in open space is being attacked by the Knicks.
Spurs coach Mitch Johnson needs to play Wembanyama closer to the 38-39 minutes he played in Game 3 rather than the 44 he logged in Game 4. A rested Wemby is active, attacking the rim, and a better shot blocker where it matters: near the basket.
This is the Spurs' chance to showcase their star at home in a redemption game. I like Wembanyama coming out to be more impactful near the rim and backboard, which means more rebounds, as well as more trips to the free-throw line. That means more points, too.
Wembanyama has between 37 and 40 Points + Rebounds in the four games of this series.
The likely NBA Finals MVP, should the Knicks triumph, is the two-way threat OG Anunoby. His block and tip-in late in Game 4 saved the Knicks from a disastrous loss on their home court.
Anunoby is averaging 21 points per game in the NBA Finals. That average is helped heavily by the 33 and 28 he dropped in Games 3-4 in New York. He seems buoyed by that success, and more importantly, his teammates are going to trust him and give him lots of chances to score.
You can't have a Game 7 without a Game 6. It's just science, people. I like San Antonio to wipe away some of the embarrassment of Game 4's loss and extend the series on Saturday night deep in the heart of Texas. The combination of Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Devin Vassell will prove too much. Look for Johnson to play Harper more often over De'Aaron Fox.
I also like their chances to leverage their superior talent to win a Game 6 back at Madison Square Garden next Tuesday. Which is why I am submitting a betting slip for half a unit ($50) with the Spurs to win the 2026 NBA Finals, at +385 from FanDuel currently. If San Antonio comes back to win this series, that wager will be worth $292.50.